ATL: Ex-NINE - Models

#81 Postby **northjaxpro** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 6:21 pm

I agree with you SFLcane. For The most part this season, the GFS has been off the mark for sure.

But, it did do better with Gonzalo and in this instance with this current invest, it has been latching onto something organizing in this region since last week. So, I personally in this instance wouldn't discount what the GFS is depicting regarding the evoulution of this Invest 93L down the road.

#82 Postby **SFLcane** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 6:30 pm

northjaxpro wrote:I agree with you SFLcane. For The most part this season, the GFS has been off the mark for sure.

But, it did do better with Gonzalo and in this instance with this current invest, it has been latching onto something organizing in this region since last week. So, I personally in this instance wouldn't discount what the GFS is depicting regarding the evoulution of this Invest 93L down the road.

I will believe it when i see it. :roll:

#83 Postby **northjaxpro** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 6:35 pm

SFLcane wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:I agree with you SFLcane. For The most part this season, the GFS has been off the mark for sure.

But, it did do better with Gonzalo and in this instance with this current invest, it has been latching onto something organizing in this region since last week. So, I personally in this instance wouldn't discount what the GFS is depicting regarding the evoulution of this Invest 93L down the road.

I will believe it when i see it.

Fair enough. This is the intriguing aspect always with monitoring the tropics.

blp · #84 Postby **blp** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 6:37 pm

12z Euro ensembles clustered today on keeping this in the NW Carribean.

12z

Comparison 00z

Hammy · #85 Postby **Hammy** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 6:43 pm

If this does manage to form (I'm personally a bit skeptical of this myself, at least as far as it being tropical) it looks to certainly be one of the more interesting tracks we've seen.

TheStormExpert · #86 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 6:47 pm

Hammy wrote:If this does manage to form (I'm personally a bit skeptical of this myself, at least as far as it being tropical) it looks to certainly be one of the more interesting tracks we've seen.

Is it even possible to get Subtropical systems at or near 20N and south.

blp · #87 Postby **blp** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 6:49 pm

Looking at the 00z Euro versus the 12z you can clearly see that the 12z does not stay attached to front as was depicted on the 00z. What happens tonight might change again but the trend today has been less frontal and more tropical in nature. I think the intensity forecast for the Euro is probably right because I don't see conditions in the SE gulf being too favorable for any significant strengthening. It has to stay in the NW Carribean to be strong.

#88 Postby **SFLcane** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 6:50 pm

18z HWRF emerging into Caribbean...

windnrain · #89 Postby **windnrain** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 7:17 pm

So I notice a lot of tracks "end" in the northwest Carribean with it just meandering around. Any sense of where it would go afterwards?

#90 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 7:19 pm

18Z NAVGEM is really strong in the BOC before making landfall in the Yucatan. It also dives it more ESE and delays entry into the NW Carib. So quite a change in the long-range track and short-range intensity forecast. NAVGEM seems way too strong here:

Hammy · #91 Postby **Hammy** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 8:08 pm

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1972/AGNES/track.gif

Track/setup is reminding me of this, except starting further west and with the main track going further east, especially with the secondary low forming to the east in some of the runs.

TheStormExpert · #92 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 8:13 pm

Hammy wrote:http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1972/AGNES/track.gif

Track/setup is reminding me of this, except starting further west and with the main track going further east, especially with the secondary low forming to the east in some of the runs.

Agnes formed in the middle of June as opposed to now which is mid/late October.

TJRE · #93 Postby **TJRE** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 9:17 pm

Animation: NCEP Ensemble Mean Prec

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_ussm_animation.html

CIMSS
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/

COD MET infrared
http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/2km/index.php?type=Yucatan-ir-24

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

#94 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 11:22 pm

0Z MU has this as purely frontal.

It spins up a second system in the Caribbean

Hurricaneman · #95 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 11:30 pm

Alyono wrote:0Z MU has this as purely frontal.

It spins up a second system in the Caribbean

I honestly think this is a plausable scenario where 93L causes 2 different systems by having the initial surface low take off ENE because of shear while the MLC forms its own low basically what most of the models are showing at this point even including the best of the best models, the Euro

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Hurricaneman · #96 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Tue Oct 21, 2014 12:00 am

The GFS is either bad or is off its meds because while the piece in the caribbean is possible its not just going to meander in the Bahamas into Florida IMO

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Hammy · #97 Postby **Hammy** » Tue Oct 21, 2014 12:16 am

spiral wrote:
Hammy wrote:Every single model develops this at this point and a lot take it east--is it pretty likely at this point that we could have a tropical storm moving straight east across the Yucatan and emerging in the Caribbean?

EC 12Z Dropped it like a bag of spuds.
http://hoot.metr.ou.edu/models/ecmwf/surf/pmsl

I beg to differ: It simply doesn't move it into the region shown above.
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014102012&region=NATL&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=144

Euro has been consistently developing it now for several runs. Not only that but your link shows 500mb winds.

#98 Postby **CrazyC83** » Tue Oct 21, 2014 12:55 am

This has a Lenny feel to it, just farther north...

Hammy · #99 Postby **Hammy** » Tue Oct 21, 2014 2:10 am

spiral wrote:EC's result Sunday.

Oddly the Euro now seems to be trending in the direction of the GFS, moving some sort of frontal low out and developing the leftover in the NW Caribbean. The situation is getting confusing for sure.

#100 Postby **jlauderdal** » Tue Oct 21, 2014 4:15 am

Alyono wrote:0Z MU has this as purely frontal.

It spins up a second system in the Caribbean

the fully frontal idea on mu has and still seems the most reasonable solution. spinning up a major hurricand doesnt seem resoanable exepecially since the gfs fails so often when it does that...im sticking with the converyer belt of moisture with waves riding along it and finally this mess clearing out of south florida and no major spin up of anything

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