ATL: Ex-NINE - Models

[HurriGuy]

WHOA

GFS is way, way farther west

[gatorcane]

The GFS is still showing a cyclone in the NW Caribbean though it has trended a little weaker. Oddly enough, it sends it back into the BOC where it came from in the long-range. lol

192 hour graphic before the model switches to lower resolution:

[HurriGuy]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014102112/gfs_z500_mslp_watl_31.png

GFS goes back towards Yucatan and not north to Cuba in 12z. Just one run through

[cycloneye]

The infamous MU dong it's tricks again.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Euro did same 00z

[gatorcane]

12Z NAVGEM back to what it was showing yesterday which is E or ESE over Yucatan and into NW Carib where it intensifies, then turns north, 168 hours below:

[TheStormExpert]

Well unless the Euro wakes up and shows more than a TD at best on it's 12z fun today I'm very tempted to assume that nothing will ever come of this mess. Just my opinion.

[NDG]

I see that the 12z GFS is very similar to last night's 0z Euro, can't get better agreement than that.

[SFLcane]

European has a weak low in NW caribbean through 168hrs. Does not appear to be frontal

[Hammy]

Well unless the Euro wakes up and shows more than a TD at best on it's 12z fun today I'm very tempted to assume that nothing will ever come of this mess. Just my opinion.

Never let your guard down with anything the Euro showed at the ten day mark (and it showed this at 240 hours a few days back) as it has a habit of either dropping things or showing them significantly weaker as it gets within the 4-8 day period, then showing them again as the time frame gets closer.

[gatorcane]

European has a weak low in NW caribbean through 168hrs. Does not appear to be frontal

Yep sure does and has joined the GFS (again the GFS seems to be sniffing things out first for this system then the Euro joins later). But the Euro does show a lot of dry, stable air coming down from North America into the Caribbean which seems to keep development in check. The GFS shows some dry, stable air too but not enough to stop development.

But one of NHC's hurricane models, the HWRF, is liking the NW Caribbean for some possible development, along with the GFS and NAVGEM models. So no consensus with the models and the 50% chance of development in the Caribbean is a good call from the NHC right now given the data in-hand.

[DESTRUCTION5]

12Z Euro sends a weak reflection thru FL

[gatorcane]

Model consensus (TVCN) is to the NW Caribbean with a turn to the north. Question will be assuming it survives the trek across the Yucatan - how favorable will it be once it makes it to the Caribbean?

[Frank2]

Sounds complex - a little similar to 1994's Gordon:

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteorol ... rdon_(1994)

[Dean4Storms]

Well best we can determine is that a surface low will take shape in the NW Carib. Sea, from there it is just too far out in time for trusting direction and intensity. Going to be a long couple weeks with this one maybe!

[gatorcane]

Here is how the 12Z NAVGEM run ends at 180 hours:

[blp]

Caveat: This is was yesterday's 12z run of the UKmet. For some reason it is 24hrs behind since Saturday.

[gatorcane]

18Z Guidance updated:

[wyq614]

For amusement purpose only, Cuba's MM5 Model has it to be pulled NE and then struggling just north of Yucatan Peninsula until 24th.

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... S&TB2=MM50

It's 2pm Weather Map shows the Low somehow attached to a cold front and actually weakened the low.

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... PECTIVASTT

[AdamFirst]

18z GFS is beginning to roll

Same scenario from previous runs - through 96 bulk of energy is carried up the front with another area developing in the NW Caribbean.