ATL: Ex-NINE - Models

[gatorcane]

Down to 975MB on the GFS High res at 180 hours and moving slowly NNW. Holy crap! Good thing it is getting into the long-range.

Note: this is NOT the BOC system

http://i59.tinypic.com/9ztws4.jpg

if its not the invest system.then shouldnt it be in the global models thread

it's IMO part of the invest system and heres how I'll explain it

The surface low gets ejected while the MLC stays behind indicating major wind shear and a new low forms under the MLC which both the Euro and GFS are showing which is why this belongs here, its one convoluted setup that could lend to 2 tropical cyclones from one invest

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

00Z GEM also showed something similar to what you are saying. Check out the 12Z GEM that just rolled (image below at 180 hours). What you are seeing there is the BOC system only the GEM didn't split it into two as it interacts with the front. This is a very complex situation unfolding and it is giving the models fits:

[gatorcane]

12Z NAVGEM is showing something similar to the GEM. Here we go again, models ramping this thing up:

[SouthFLTropics]

If the Euro is bullish and shows something similar on the 12z run then it may be time for for us here in South Florida to really start taking this thing seriously. It's looking good on Satellite and has a lot of model support. A Euro run showing what the Gem and Navgem is showing will get things hopping for sure. Media feeding frenzy will slowly kick into high gear.

SFT

[BigA]

I took a look at the loops of 850 mb. vorticity for the GFS, GEM (Canadian) and NAVGEM. The evolution is quite similar in the three models, though the timing is substantially slower in the GFS. In all these models, the main vorticity of 93L moves eastward into the Western Caribbean, where it becomes an intense tropical cyclone. The vorticity that interacts baroclinically with the front and crosses Florida is related to the vorticity of 93L, but is not the core low-level vorticity of 93L. Rather, it is a "streamer" of vorticity away from the core that is baroclinically enhanced while being ejected northeastward.

So according to my best analysis, it is 93L that is coming out of the western Caribbean in these models.

[Evil Jeremy]

There's a large spread in the models in regards to the timeline of a possible Florida impact. GFS is 240+ hours out, NAVGEM at 168 hour. Meanwhile NWS is suggesting that the rain will start for Florida in a few days.

[psyclone]

I took a look at the loops of 850 mb. vorticity for the GFS, GEM (Canadian) and NAVGEM. The evolution is quite similar in the three models, though the timing is substantially slower in the GFS. In all these models, the main vorticity of 93L moves eastward into the Western Caribbean, where it becomes an intense tropical cyclone. The vorticity that interacts baroclinically with the front and crosses Florida is related to the vorticity of 93L, but is not the core low-level vorticity of 93L. Rather, it is a "streamer" of vorticity away from the core that is baroclinically enhanced while being ejected northeastward.

So according to my best analysis, it is 93L that is coming out of the western Caribbean in these models.

Do you think that scenario is likely to play out? that seems like a rather odd turn of events.

[gatorcane]

There's a large spread in the models in regards to the timeline of a possible Florida impact. GFS is 240+ hours out, NAVGEM at 168 hour. Meanwhile NWS is suggesting that the rain will start for Florida in a few days.

It's interesting that the GEM and NAVGEM are basically showing the same solution with basically a 93L moving E slowly in the BOC, ramping up then crossing the Yucatan and into the NW Carib where they both show an intense cyclone that turns North both showing a South Florida landfall around 180 hours.

the GFS 240 hour system seems to be something spinning off that gets left behind in the NW Caribbean. What a complex pattern!

[Hurricaneman]

The thing is if the models move more towards an ejection while leaving the main energy behind it has potential to be more than a flood threat as in it could become a hurricane threat but as of now I'm not going to go with a hurricane threat but that could change within the next few days

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[BigA]

I took a look at the loops of 850 mb. vorticity for the GFS, GEM (Canadian) and NAVGEM. The evolution is quite similar in the three models, though the timing is substantially slower in the GFS. In all these models, the main vorticity of 93L moves eastward into the Western Caribbean, where it becomes an intense tropical cyclone. The vorticity that interacts baroclinically with the front and crosses Florida is related to the vorticity of 93L, but is not the core low-level vorticity of 93L. Rather, it is a "streamer" of vorticity away from the core that is baroclinically enhanced while being ejected northeastward.

So according to my best analysis, it is 93L that is coming out of the western Caribbean in these models.

Do you think that scenario is likely to play out? that seems like a rather odd turn of events.

Right now I lean toward the idea that the main vorticity ends up getting ejected eastward. But it is a weak lean. The scenario shown by the 12Z models look plausible. If the ECMWF shows a similar scenario, it will look even more plausible.

[gatorcane]

Another look at the 12Z NAVGEM (U.S. Navy model), 162 hours:

[gatorcane]

Our first HWRF run for this invest. Makes it strong in the BOC like the GEM and NAVGEM and here is 4 days from now before it makes landfall in the Yucatan:

[caneman]

It's best to take a blend of the models.

[blp]

I took a look at the loops of 850 mb. vorticity for the GFS, GEM (Canadian) and NAVGEM. The evolution is quite similar in the three models, though the timing is substantially slower in the GFS. In all these models, the main vorticity of 93L moves eastward into the Western Caribbean, where it becomes an intense tropical cyclone. The vorticity that interacts baroclinically with the front and crosses Florida is related to the vorticity of 93L, but is not the core low-level vorticity of 93L. Rather, it is a "streamer" of vorticity away from the core that is baroclinically enhanced while being ejected northeastward.

So according to my best analysis, it is 93L that is coming out of the western Caribbean in these models.

That is exactly what I see the low level vorticity moves east into NW. Carribean which explains why it ramps up quickly since it would be in a favaorable area further south away from the front.

[blp]

Euro so far 120hrs is following the idea of moving the the Low East into the NW Carribean. Down to 1006mb looks to be getting stronger.

[gatorcane]

ECMWF 144 hours has a stronger low south of Cuba and has not merged with the front yet though it is interacting with it. On the 00Z it was up and away already. Overall the ECMWF is a little slower than the 00Z run into the NW Caribbean.

144 hours below:

[shortwave1]

I wonder how/if what looks to be inverted wave in central atlantic comes into play with this

[blp]

ECMWF 144 hours has a stronger low south of Cuba and has not merged with the front yet. On the 00Z it was up and away already. Overall the ECMWF is slower and trending closer to the other guidance.

144 hours below:

Yes, 850 vorticity is still stretched out but staying in the NW Carribean this time instead of Bahamas. I think it gets trapped on this run.

[Blown Away]

NCEP has 93L in the NW Caribbean in 7 days... Something similar to what BigA was explaining...

[gatorcane]

ECMWF 144 hours has a stronger low south of Cuba and has not merged with the front yet. On the 00Z it was up and away already. Overall the ECMWF is slower and trending closer to the other guidance.

144 hours below:

http://i59.tinypic.com/210djf8.jpg

Yes, 850 vorticity is still stretched out but staying in the NW Carribean this time instead of Bahamas. I think it gets trapped on this run.

Yes you nailed it. It is trapped just south of Cuba at 168 hours. The trough missed it. Big change with the Euro from the 00Z run.

[SFLcane]

HWRF ends up in near the NW Caribbean Ala Wilma.