ATL: Ex-NINE - Models

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psyclone
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#161 Postby psyclone » Tue Oct 21, 2014 6:31 pm

fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice shame on me, fool weather geeks desperate for late season action 18 times and you must be the GFS...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#162 Postby wzrgirl1 » Tue Oct 21, 2014 6:31 pm

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#163 Postby SFLcane » Tue Oct 21, 2014 6:33 pm

blp wrote:Amazing how the perspective has changed. The Euro has certainly earned the respect it gets but it is not perfect. Can you imagine if the Euro was showing the GFS scenario. The news agencies would be telling of the impending doom. Some on the board would go nuts and start storm prep (I include myself). Amazing how one model has so much power now over the others when years ago there was more balance. I remember when the GFDL was awesome and only model to pick up the SW turn Katrina did to hit Miami-Dade head on and the SW dive of IKE over Cuba. Times have changed...


So has the Atlantic Basin as a whole. Its either at 35n for development or nada.
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#164 Postby USTropics » Tue Oct 21, 2014 6:34 pm

GFS says trick or treat south Florida!

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#165 Postby SFLcane » Tue Oct 21, 2014 6:38 pm

Happy Halloween!!

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#166 Postby StormingB81 » Tue Oct 21, 2014 6:42 pm

I dont mean to cause a problem but when I come to a model thread I would like to see photos of models on where they project the storm going. I for one am tired of the bashing of GFS every post or photos of non relevant things on the model thread. It maybe just me but I dont wan to flip through 5 pages and most of it has nothing to do with models or even shows what the models are saying.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#167 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Oct 21, 2014 6:48 pm

SFLcane wrote:Happy Halloween!!

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99.9% sure this is a Halloween Trick! :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#168 Postby SFLcane » Tue Oct 21, 2014 6:53 pm

18z HWRF has an intensifying storm in the NW Caribbean sea.

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#169 Postby blp » Tue Oct 21, 2014 7:05 pm

StormingB81 wrote:I dont mean to cause a problem but when I come to a model thread I would like to see photos of models on where they project the storm going. I for one am tired of the bashing of GFS every post or photos of non relevant things on the model thread. It maybe just me but I dont wan to flip through 5 pages and most of it has nothing to do with models or even shows what the models are saying.


It is not a problem, while I agree we should stay more on topic, posting images for all the runs is labor intensive since you cannot hotlink images and need to use a third party image host site. I am fine with posting just pertinent images of interest. You should try to bookmark the sites and look them up when the runs come out, this way you see the models that interest you.
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#170 Postby StormingB81 » Tue Oct 21, 2014 7:10 pm

Well I am not posting every single one but important ones.... I know if you posted all it would be a whole lot and we may not need half of them....I am mainly talking about the wolf wolf wolf...the photo of the wolf and there has been a lot of bashing of the GFS...We know its bad but hey you never know but I like to see what the models are saying...
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#171 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 21, 2014 7:23 pm

18Z GFS High-res has it as strong as 978MB just south of the western tip of Cuba which would be around a CAT 2 hurricane at 180 hours

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#172 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Oct 21, 2014 7:25 pm

StormingB81 wrote:I dont mean to cause a problem but when I come to a model thread I would like to see photos of models on where they project the storm going. I for one am tired of the bashing of GFS every post or photos of non relevant things on the model thread. It maybe just me but I dont wan to flip through 5 pages and most of it has nothing to do with models or even shows what the models are saying.

pm me and i will send you a few links that will give you nothibg but model data and pictures...i hear what you are seeing but this is a forum and will have text discussion with occasional humor..especially this time of year..enjoy
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#173 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Tue Oct 21, 2014 7:35 pm

StormingB81 wrote:Well I am not posting every single one but important ones.... I know if you posted all it would be a whole lot and we may not need half of them....I am mainly talking about the wolf wolf wolf...the photo of the wolf and there has been a lot of bashing of the GFS...We know its bad but hey you never know but I like to see what the models are saying...


I do agree I am so over the bashing of this model or that. Granted each has issues, if you keep an open mind and do a little reading and research, along with the models all have a place. I do like to see them posted sometimes for a lot of reason we can't get to them, so being able to follow the thread here and pick them up is a big help. It may not be this potential storm bust one day the bashers are going to have to eat it. Yea Yea I know all the little sayings even a broken clock is correct twice a day or the Squirrel gets the nut. Once in a while is ok but it does get old. Back to the invest.
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#174 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Oct 21, 2014 7:41 pm

I wouldn't totally rule out what the GFS is painting there, at least a TC forming in the NW Carib. and coming northward.
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#175 Postby StormingB81 » Tue Oct 21, 2014 7:42 pm

It can be funny at times just getting old with all the bashing..I see homor like the halloween thing and all but the bashing gets old
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Re: Re:

#176 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Oct 21, 2014 7:43 pm

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:
StormingB81 wrote:Well I am not posting every single one but important ones.... I know if you posted all it would be a whole lot and we may not need half of them....I am mainly talking about the wolf wolf wolf...the photo of the wolf and there has been a lot of bashing of the GFS...We know its bad but hey you never know but I like to see what the models are saying...


I do agree I am so over the bashing of this model or that. Granted each has issues, if you keep an open mind and do a little reading and research, along with the models all have a place. I do like to see them posted sometimes for a lot of reason we can't get to them, so being able to follow the thread here and pick them up is a big help. It may not be this potential storm bust one day the bashers are going to have to eat it. Yea Yea I know all the little sayings even a broken clock is correct twice a day or the Squirrel gets the nut. Once in a while is ok but it does get old. Back to the invest.


Add me to the list of members annoyed by the constant GFS/ECMWF bickering. Not a storm goes by without this stupid argument. Can we just get a permanent thread in Talkin Tropics for model bashing/praising, and keep it all in one place?
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#177 Postby USTropics » Tue Oct 21, 2014 7:44 pm

We're just having some fun during this lull while we wait for the next coming days to see how things pan out. I don't think a couple humorous posts are going to saturate this thread. Back to the models though:

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Regarding the GFS, the NHC is not bullish on what the GFS is currently projecting:

Later in the week, tropical cyclone formation appears unlikely due to interaction with a cold front while the system is over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.


Also, this is a really good explanation regarding the GFS problems this year from Jeff Masters:

We know that the GFS model gets in trouble when making predictions of heavy thunderstorm activity via a problem called "convective feedback." Basically, the model sometimes simulates that an unrealistically large area of thunderstorms will develop, destabilize the atmosphere, and cause an area of low pressure to form that will draw in more moisture and create more heavy thunderstorms. This vicious cycle can snowball out of control and generate a bogus low pressure area that can then modify the upper level winds, reduce the wind shear, and allow a tropical depression to form.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#178 Postby blp » Tue Oct 21, 2014 7:53 pm

Well the UKmet is still onboard south of Cuba with lots od moisture further North.

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Last edited by blp on Tue Oct 21, 2014 7:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#179 Postby Frank2 » Tue Oct 21, 2014 7:57 pm

I spoke to one of the former NHC pro mets this morning and the thinking is that per certain models, whatever is left in the Caribbean might form into something, once the cold front drops southward. Personally I'm not disappointed per the previous false dire model runs of past days - I'm currently not feeling well and not up to a Wilma-type hurricane evac, as I did in 2005 - being sick and sitting in a distant hotel room is not a good combination...

Anyway, the models once again did not do a very good job - not the best year for them once again...
Last edited by Frank2 on Tue Oct 21, 2014 8:03 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#180 Postby blp » Tue Oct 21, 2014 7:58 pm

18z Navgem had a bad run, buries system in C.America again at 96hrs.
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