ATL: Ex-NINE - Models

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#201 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Oct 22, 2014 5:57 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Image

06 GFS Landfall just south of Tampa..180hrs. Seemingly strong cane.


rare tampa hit on gfs..adds to the mystique of MU this season....lets see if gfs can score a late season win..you can tell the nws offices in florida look at the gfs with suspicion.... :wink:
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#202 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Oct 22, 2014 6:06 am

jlauderdal wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Image

06 GFS Landfall just south of Tampa..180hrs. Seemingly strong cane.


rare tampa hit on gfs..adds to the mystique of MU this season....lets see if gfs can score a late season win..you can tell the nws offices in florida look at the gfs with suspicion.... :wink:

Well the MJO is supposed to hang around in our basin (Phases 1 and 8) for the next week or two.
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#203 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Oct 22, 2014 6:09 am

The 00z China CMA run gave up on it over Central America and almost exactly like GGEM at 00z transfers the energy over to the Pacific.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#204 Postby ronjon » Wed Oct 22, 2014 6:13 am

06z GFDL brings TD 9 to 999 mb off the coast of Belieze in 126 hrs. 06z HWRF has the storm off the coast strengthening at 78 hrs to 997 mb.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#205 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Oct 22, 2014 6:17 am

jlauderdal wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Image

06 GFS Landfall just south of Tampa..180hrs. Seemingly strong cane.


rare tampa hit on gfs..adds to the mystique of MU this season....lets see if gfs can score a late season win..you can tell the nws offices in florida look at the gfs with suspicion.... :wink:

Moved well up in time...went from Halloween Night to Weds..while that seems more feasible it's still a drastic change in timing...lot more runs to come. I will say the time frame it starts to get going in the NW Caribbean is usually in the GFS wheel house.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#206 Postby Blown Away » Wed Oct 22, 2014 6:23 am

Image
06z... Models keep TD9 offshore in NW Caribbean...

Image
06z... Models keeping TD9 a TS and first time a few showing hurricane...
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#207 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Oct 22, 2014 6:35 am

Image

00z Euro liked idea of track but refused to believe in any strength and loses it between hr 216 to 240
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#208 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 22, 2014 6:35 am

From Tampa NWS regarding the models.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
425 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
VERY UNCLEAR WRT WHAT HAPPENS TO TD9 NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SPLITS
ENERGY ASSOC W/ TD9 IN TWO PIECES ON EITHER SIDE OF CUBA. ONE
PIECE RACES OFF TO THE ENE AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED S/WV WITH
THE OTHER REMAINING IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN. GFS THEN STRENGTHENS
THE PIECE LEFT BEHIND AND MOVES IT NORTH INTO THE ERN GOMEX AS A
STRONG TS. COULD HAPPEN...BUT WAY TO COMPLICATED AND NOT NEAR
ENOUGH SUPPORT BY OTHER MODELS TO PUT MUCH STOCK IN THAT SOLN OUT
7 DAYS. THAT SAID...SHOULD NOTE THE ECMWF DOES SHOWS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE FEATURE BETWEEN YUCATAN AND CUBA AS WELL...SO WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT BECOMES OF TD9 NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW FOLLOWED
ECMWF FOR LAST FEW PERIODS OF THE FORECAST WHICH IS MUCH LESS
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#209 Postby Blown Away » Wed Oct 22, 2014 6:41 am

Image
06z NAVGEM likes TD9... Hurricane moving N at end of run...
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#210 Postby blp » Wed Oct 22, 2014 7:29 am

00z Ukmet has shifted to SW Carribean.

Image
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#211 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Oct 22, 2014 7:34 am

blp wrote:00z Ukmet has shifted to SW Carribean.

Image


that looks like the pacific to me
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#212 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Oct 22, 2014 7:36 am

jlauderdal wrote:
blp wrote:00z Ukmet has shifted to SW Carribean.

Image


that looks like the pacific to me


I think hes talking about the weak reflection around Nicaragua

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#213 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Oct 22, 2014 7:44 am

Hurricaneman wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
blp wrote:00z Ukmet has shifted to SW Carribean.

Image


that looks like the pacific to me


I think hes talking about the weak reflection around Nicaragua

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k, well that energy in the pacific could easily zap anything on the carib side..net result is the euro has never been real excited about this energy that is going to be left behind
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#214 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 22, 2014 7:53 am

06Z High resolution GFS shows this cyclone gets the strongest when nearing Florida (even stronger than when in the Caribbean), with a pressure of 975MB! That is around a CAT 2. GFS has brought the timescales in on this too with genesis starting around hour 90 and the possible Florida threat between 156-168 hours.

Image
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Re:

#215 Postby MWatkins » Wed Oct 22, 2014 8:14 am

gatorcane wrote:06Z High resolution GFS shows this cyclone gets the strongest when nearing Florida (even stronger than when in the Caribbean), with a pressure of 975MB! That is around a CAT 2. GFS has brought the timescales in on this too with genesis starting around hour 90 and the possible Florida threat between 156-168 hours.


Makes sense that intensification would happen as this system moves out of the deep tropics (as it has with almost every Atlantic system in the last 2 years). Still much uncertainty but there appears to be a lot of agreement that something will be hanging around the western Caribbean by early next week.

MW
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#216 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 22, 2014 8:44 am

HWRF showing a hurricane just south of Western tip of Cuba in 126 hours:

Image
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#217 Postby SFLcane » Wed Oct 22, 2014 8:45 am

HWRF also has a pretty significant Hurricane in the NW caribbean. As Mike suggested there seems to be pretty good consensus in something developing but Euro says NADA.
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#218 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 22, 2014 9:14 am

The GFDL shows it starting to organize once in the NW Caribbean and here is how the run ends:

Image
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#219 Postby Blown Away » Wed Oct 22, 2014 9:26 am

Image
12z... Looking more realistic than zig zagging all over...

Image
12z... Intensity increasing with each run... Most importantly the OFCI (NHC) says nada... :D
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#220 Postby HurricaneBelle » Wed Oct 22, 2014 9:33 am

Shorter TD9 Models Thread:

Q: Will it Develop further?

Wxman57: No No No No No No No No
Gatorcane: Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
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