ATL: Ex-NINE - Models

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Re:

#221 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Oct 22, 2014 9:37 am

HurricaneBelle wrote:Shorter TD9 Models Thread:

Q: Will it Develop further?

Wxman57: No No No No No No No No
Gatorcane: Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes


more like Euro no no no no
Most others yes yes yes yes
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Re:

#222 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 22, 2014 9:45 am

HurricaneBelle wrote:Shorter TD9 Models Thread:

Q: Will it Develop further?

Wxman57: No No No No No No No No
Gatorcane: Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes


Funny. I am in the "MAYBE" camp but not in the "NO" camp. By the way, here is the 00Z Euro in 5 days. It's not like it has nothing...:

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#223 Postby ronjon » Wed Oct 22, 2014 10:15 am

Yeah people need to be careful when saying the Euro has nada. It depicts a weak low with the same general track as other models. We all know that genesis and intensity are the hardest things for models to forecast. Just a watch and wait mode now. But track and intensity are pretty understandable given climatology. Will the generally unfavorable conditions this year led to another false alarm or is this something different this time?
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#224 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Oct 22, 2014 10:39 am

Based on the run so far I'm thinking that the GFS may be coming around to the Euro's way of thinking. Nothing really cooking through 57 hours so far.
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#225 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Oct 22, 2014 10:45 am

Through 72 hours a trough of low pressure draped across the Caribbean...maybe trying to spin it up at 72 hours.
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#226 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Oct 22, 2014 10:58 am

Through 99 hours GFS has backed off considerably. Only a weak reflection so far.
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#227 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Oct 22, 2014 11:06 am

I believe the GFS has just bought the farm again...showed a Tampa landfall at 06Z to showing nothing on the 12Z. It's hard to trust a model like that.
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Re:

#228 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Oct 22, 2014 11:07 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:I believe the GFS has just bought the farm again...showed a Tampa landfall at 06Z to showing nothing on the 12Z. It's hard to trust a model like that.


Agreed with such a dramatic change from the overnight runs I think I'm done taking it seriously.
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#229 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 22, 2014 11:08 am

Yep looks like the GFS is showing just a weak low and nothing else on this run and has dropped the NW Caribbean hurricane.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#230 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 22, 2014 11:14 am

I would want to see GFS.GEM,NAVIGEM,HWRF,UKMET and yes ECMWF too to have big upgrades and have trustworthy global models in the near future.I am dreaming right?
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#231 Postby AdamFirst » Wed Oct 22, 2014 11:20 am

5 dollars says EURO is bullish on this run, just to mess with you guys' heads. :grrr:
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Re: Re:

#232 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Oct 22, 2014 11:23 am

PTrackerLA wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:I believe the GFS has just bought the farm again...showed a Tampa landfall at 06Z to showing nothing on the 12Z. It's hard to trust a model like that.


Agreed with such a dramatic change from the overnight runs I think I'm done taking it seriously.


Don't be surprised if it comes back on the next run or even in a day or two...its a complex setup and we are out in time so its no surprise to see models jumping around, especially MU
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#233 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 22, 2014 11:23 am

Anyone who wants to discuss about the models in general like upgrades etc can go to the Global Model Runs Discussion Thread at Talking Tropics forum.
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#234 Postby crownweather » Wed Oct 22, 2014 11:26 am

Almost seems like the 12Z GFS run pulls TD 9 ENE ending up in the SE Bahamas rather than its earlier forecasts of a ESE track. This ENE track would push the depression right into an area of strong wind shear rather than the previous runs forecast of the track into the NW Caribbean where conditions may have been more favorable for development.

Is this a trend in the models or is it a "fluke" run? These huge departures in just one model run can be very suspicious, especially since the Euro did show a strong area of vorticity in the same general area as the GFS model by this weekend into early next week.
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#235 Postby fox13weather » Wed Oct 22, 2014 11:27 am

Regarding tropical development in the 5 to 8 day range, the GFS has proven over and over again to be a liability. This goes back to June when nearly every run predicted a tropical system to form in the Caribbean Sea and or the Gulf of Mexico. It never verified. It is amazing, that is in this day in age, that we rely more on a model that is was developed and funded from out of our country..
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Re: Re:

#236 Postby Blown Away » Wed Oct 22, 2014 11:30 am

jlauderdal wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:I believe the GFS has just bought the farm again...showed a Tampa landfall at 06Z to showing nothing on the 12Z. It's hard to trust a model like that.


Agreed with such a dramatic change from the overnight runs I think I'm done taking it seriously.


Don't be surprised if it comes back on the next run or even in a day or two...its a complex setup and we are out in time so its no surprise to see models jumping around, especially MU


It's clear a weak low will emerge into the NW Caribbean in a few days and it looked like the 12z GFS bounced TD9 in/out of Honduras... To much land interaction... It will be a fine line for TD9, it will need to sit over open water to have a chance...
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#237 Postby SFLcane » Wed Oct 22, 2014 12:50 pm

HWRF still has a developing TC in the cariibbean.

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#238 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Oct 22, 2014 1:15 pm

SFLcane wrote:HWRF still has a developing TC in the cariibbean.

Image


HWRF has been biased towards intense development for several years, like the gfs dont disregard it completely just know what you are dealing with when looking at it; none of the modeling has been very good this year but we certainly can conclude one has been better tahn all the others...next year it could be completely different
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#239 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 22, 2014 1:39 pm

Euro is similar to the 00Z but at 168 hours has a 1011MB low heading N or NE in the southern Gulf rather than killing it off over the Yucatan.

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#240 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 22, 2014 1:46 pm

192 hours heads NE, just off the west coast of Florida and looks to eventually merge with a cold front

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Last edited by gatorcane on Wed Oct 22, 2014 1:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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