ATL: Ex-NINE - Models

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#241 Postby SFLcane » Wed Oct 22, 2014 1:48 pm

12z GFDL has a moderate TS down there...

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#242 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 22, 2014 1:49 pm

So basically the 12Z ECMWF is showing a low that meanders around the Caribbean then heads NW, N, the gets ejected NE in the Southern/Eastern Gulf out ahead of a cold front. Similar to track to what the GFS had been advertising up until the 12Z, only a lot weaker and a little further west! I find it hard to believe we can't see some development with a low tracking like that in late October through the NW Caribbean but I guess the ECMWF keeps the air so dry, it will keep it in check. Let's hope it is right.

I wonder if the 18Z GFS goes back to showing some development?
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#243 Postby ronjon » Wed Oct 22, 2014 1:56 pm

fox13weather wrote:Regarding tropical development in the 5 to 8 day range, the GFS has proven over and over again to be a liability. This goes back to June when nearly every run predicted a tropical system to form in the Caribbean Sea and or the Gulf of Mexico. It never verified. It is amazing, that is in this day in age, that we rely more on a model that is was developed and funded from out of our country..


Agreed - after this year I hope whoever's in charge of model development takes a hard look at the GFS code - something has gone horribly wrong this year.
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#244 Postby Hammy » Wed Oct 22, 2014 2:10 pm

Euro is showing a bit more development than it had been showing for the last few days by the looks of it.
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#245 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 22, 2014 2:16 pm

144 and 168 hour 12Z Penn State Euro images below showing the turn north from the NW Caribbean then eventually NE out ahead of a cold front. Nothing strong, but I wonder if subsequent Euro runs may show a bit more development. Steering pattern similar between GFS and ECMWF. Very classic late October setup.

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#246 Postby blp » Wed Oct 22, 2014 2:28 pm

You have the Euro showing more vorticity now than the GFS. Go figure? I was not totally sold on the GFS strong Hurricane idea. I think the 18z GFS will show the low again in a more realistic strength. We will see.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#247 Postby Frank2 » Wed Oct 22, 2014 2:49 pm

So basically the 12Z ECMWF is showing a low that meanders around the Caribbean then heads NW, N, the gets ejected NE in the Southern/Eastern Gulf out ahead of a cold front. Similar to track to what the GFS had been advertising up until the 12Z, only a lot weaker and a little further west! I find it hard to believe we can't see some development with a low tracking like that in late October through the NW Caribbean but I guess the ECMWF keeps the air so dry, it will keep it in check. Let's hope it is right.


That's seems to be the pro met thinking down in Miami, though perhaps not as a tropical low but a frontal low (not an official opinion) - we'll see what happens (ugh)...

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#248 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 22, 2014 3:04 pm

crownweather wrote:Almost seems like the 12Z GFS run pulls TD 9 ENE ending up in the SE Bahamas rather than its earlier forecasts of a ESE track. This ENE track would push the depression right into an area of strong wind shear rather than the previous runs forecast of the track into the NW Caribbean where conditions may have been more favorable for development.

Is this a trend in the models or is it a "fluke" run? These huge departures in just one model run can be very suspicious, especially since the Euro did show a strong area of vorticity in the same general area as the GFS model by this weekend into early next week.

Comparing the previous GFS runs which showed development vs the 12Z which does not, it seems the 12Z takes 93Ls vorticity SE into the NW Carib briefly and then into Honduras which prohibits development. I wonder if it had kept the track more E into the NW Caribbean like the ECMWF would it had developed it again?

12Z FIM stays with the more east track into the NW Caribbean and it continues to show development (FIM is based off the GFS):

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ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#249 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 22, 2014 3:34 pm

From 4 PM CDT discussion.

The GFS changed its tune significantly between the
06z and the 12z runs. It developed a strong tropical storm in the
Caribbean in the earlier run, and only a weak trough in the 12z one.
On the other hand, both the ECMWF and the HWRF maintain a cyclone
for the next few days. This makes the intensity forecast highly
uncertain, primarily since the GFS model could redevelop a cyclone
in the next run.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#250 Postby sunnyday » Wed Oct 22, 2014 4:48 pm

There is so much uncertainty this far out, who can know what to expect? I'm voting for no storm of any significance because of the scarcity of serious hurricanes in Florida during theplast several years. 8-) 8-)

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#251 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Oct 22, 2014 4:52 pm

So far the 18Z GFS out to about 78 hours is very unimpressed with TD9 and its left overs in the Caribbean.
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#252 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 22, 2014 5:07 pm

Doesn't look like the GFS is going to develop it again. Has a weak low that moves back into the Yucatan.
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#253 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Oct 22, 2014 5:16 pm

Through 147 Hours and the GFS has Nada...I guess since the GFS isn't forming it then we should all start to worry right about now. Probably means it will form. In all seriousness, it is looking less and less likely that anything is going to come out the Caribbean with this other than maybe an additional enhancement to an upcoming front.

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Re:

#254 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Oct 22, 2014 5:17 pm

gatorcane wrote:Doesn't look like the GFS is going to develop it again. Has a weak low that moves back into the Yucatan.


Looks likes it Ejects 2 lows out thru the FL straits one Frontal and one tropical and then sends a 3rd into the BOC. LOL...
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#255 Postby blp » Wed Oct 22, 2014 5:18 pm

GFS is out lunch again. Now does not even get across Yucatan in 120 hrs. Talk about erratic.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#256 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Oct 22, 2014 5:18 pm

Looks like it gets something going in the E-Pac as well.

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#257 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Oct 22, 2014 5:20 pm

Watch tonights 00Z Euro start to show a strengthening system in the Caribbean. If that happens and it actually comes to fruition my new method of forecasting will be to do the opposite of whatever the GFS shows.

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#258 Postby SFLcane » Wed Oct 22, 2014 5:31 pm

Question for 57 what confidence can we have on the models with the satellite data blockage? Yes GFS is being impacted
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#259 Postby blp » Wed Oct 22, 2014 6:07 pm

Does the Navgem or CMC get anything from GFS because they dropped it just as fast as the GFS. I thought they were independent.

On another note, amazing how the Euro is most bullish now. What a turn around in just a few hours.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#260 Postby ozonepete » Wed Oct 22, 2014 6:13 pm

Ok well as far as the model input goes, I just read the word salad that the NWS is putting out. So basically no one is saying if they are losing any input data to the models or not and it took them two full days to even put an official message up. That's really disappointing. While I still have a feeling that the models weren't compromised, we shouldn't have to be left in the dark for 2 days.
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