ATL: Ex-NINE - Models

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blp
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#281 Postby blp » Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:02 am

tolakram wrote:6Z GFS vorticity: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

GFS drops it because it keeps the vorticity over land. Euro keeps it over water but does not develop it, however it still has the rubberband solution which brings the vorticity back into the Gulf at the end of the run. IMO if the GFS is wrong about the track, or the track was wrong due to lack of data, then it will probably develop it again in future runs.


Totally agree. Once again the Euro has the right handle on the situation.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#282 Postby crownweather » Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:13 am

tolakram wrote:6Z GFS vorticity: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

GFS drops it because it keeps the vorticity over land. Euro keeps it over water but does not develop it, however it still has the rubberband solution which brings the vorticity back into the Gulf at the end of the run. IMO if the GFS is wrong about the track, or the track was wrong due to lack of data, then it will probably develop it again in future runs.


Also note that the FIM model (which is derived off of the GFS model if I remember correctly) does keep TD 9 offshore and does still forecast significant intensification from it this weekend into next week. The FIM looks very similar to the earlier runs of the GFS model from 00Z on the 22nd and earlier.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#283 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 23, 2014 10:12 am

Caveat is the NAM so judge based on that this 12z run.

Image
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#284 Postby WPBWeather » Thu Oct 23, 2014 10:53 am

cycloneye wrote:Caveat is the NAM so judge based on that this 12z run.

Image


Do you have any idea when the "clean" model runs start today? That may help with a lot of the idle speculation going on in the other Nine thread. Thanks.
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#285 Postby gatorcane » Thu Oct 23, 2014 10:54 am

The 12Z GFS run is showing some possible development again but then looks to drift it into Nicaragua by days 4 and 5 so looks to weaken it. Very interesting maybe the lack of data was impacting the GFS afterall?

The drift south seems odd though and much different than the previous couple of runs. Maybe it will take a couple of runs with the data to get the GFS more consistent.

72 hours below, at 1006MB drifting SW:

Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:09 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#286 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:03 am

WPBWeather,to be more confident of the models after a sat feeds outage that came back a few hours ago I would prefer to wait for the 00z runs just to be sure the computers get the whole data feeded.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#287 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Oct 23, 2014 12:51 pm

cycloneye wrote:WPBWeather,to be more confident of the models after a sat feeds outage that came back a few hours ago I would prefer to wait for the 00z runs just to be sure the computers get the whole data feeded.


or at the earliest 18z
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#288 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 23, 2014 1:45 pm

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