ATL: NINE - Advisories

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Re: ATL: NINE - Advisories

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 21, 2014 10:01 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014
1000 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 92.9W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
CELESTUN TO FRONTERA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CELESTUN TO FRONTERA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF CAMPECHE LATE
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO... WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014
1000 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Satellite and radar data from Mexico indicate that deep convection
associated with the small well-defined low pressure area over the
Bay of Campeche has become organized in bands over the eastern and
northern portions of the circulation during the past few hours.
Thus the low is being designated as a tropical depression. Earlier
aircraft data supported winds around 30 kt. The depression is over
warm water and moderate southwesterly shear that has been over the
system is forecast to decrease during the next 24 hours. This
should allow for some strengthening and the depression is expected
to to become a overnight or early Wednesday. The cyclone should
weaken after it moves over the Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday night.
If the small cyclone survives the passage across the Yucatan
Peninsula, drier air and interaction with a frontal system is likely
to prevent strengthening. The NHC forecasts calls for degeneration
to a remnant low in 4 or 5 days, but this could occur much sooner.

The depression is moving eastward at about 5 kt. This general
motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours and the
cyclone is forecast to reach the west coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula late tomorrow or tomorrow night. After that time, the
track forecast becomes much more uncertain since the small system is
likely to interact with a developing non-tropical low pressure over
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The ECMWF shows the tropical
cyclone merging with the frontal system, while the GFS keeps the
depression a separate system. For now, the NHC forecast shows a
weak low pressure area over the northwestern Caribbean Sea in 4 to 5
days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 19.4N 92.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 19.4N 92.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 19.4N 91.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 19.4N 90.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 19.4N 88.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 19.0N 86.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 18.5N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/0000Z 18.5N 83.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: NINE - Advisories

#2 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 22, 2014 5:06 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014
400 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

After the increase of deep convection noted earlier, thunderstorm
activity associated with depression has leveled off, and recently
cloud tops have warmed. Also, the tropical cyclone's presentation
on the Sabancuy, Mexico radar imagery has become less organized.
The current intensity of the system is held at 30 kt. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
depression later this morning to check its intensity.

The depression continues to be affected by southwesterly shear, but
the dynamical guidance indicates some weakening of this shear within
the next 24 hours. This should allow for some strengthening of the
system over the warm waters of the eastern Bay of Campeche, prior to
reaching the Yucatan Peninsula tonight. After weakening due to its
passage across Yucatan, drier air associated with a frontal system
and west-southwesterly shear are expected to prevent
reintensification. The official intensity forecast is similar to
the previous one. Since the system is quite small, it might be
disrupted more than expected by its interaction with land -- and
weaken or degenerate into a remnant low sooner than shown by the NHC
forecast.

The cyclone continues to move eastward, or 090/5 kt. A generally
westerly mid-level environmental flow should carry the system
across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the northwestern Caribbean
Sea during the forecast period. The official track forecast is
nudged only slightly to the south of the previous one, but is north
of the multi-model consensus. It should be noted that due to the
possible interaction with a baroclinic cyclone to the northeast in
the latter part of the period, the track forecast becomes more
uncertain by days 4 and 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 19.4N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 19.4N 91.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 19.3N 90.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/1800Z 19.1N 89.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/0600Z 18.9N 88.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 25/0600Z 18.5N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 26/0600Z 18.5N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/0600Z 18.5N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: NINE - Advisories

#3 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 22, 2014 6:47 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014
700 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...
...AIR FORCE PLANE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 92.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CELESTUN TO FRONTERA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 6 MPH... 9
KM/H...LATER THIS MORNING. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN
STATE OF CAMPECHE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND THE DEPRESSION
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND. AN AIR FORCE
PLANE IN CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE DEPRESSION.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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#4 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 22, 2014 9:54 am

000
WTNT34 KNHC 221452
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014
1000 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MEANDERING OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 92.4W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CELESTUN TO FRONTERA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY...BUT A SLOW EASTWARD MOTION SHOULD
BEGIN LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN
STATE OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT
MOVES INLAND...BUT SOME WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ONCE THE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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#5 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 22, 2014 9:54 am

000
WTNT44 KNHC 221453
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014
1000 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014


Satellite images and data from an Air Force hurricane hunter plane
indicate that the depression has not strengthened since yesterday.
The circulation remains well defined but the convection is not well
organized, although new thunderstom activity is currently developing
near the center. The cyclone continues to be affected by moderate
westerly shear which should limit development. However, it is still
expected to become a tropical storm before moving inland over
the Yucatan peninsula where weakening is anticipated. If the
depression emerges over the northwestern Caribbean Sea in about 3
days, there is an opportunity for some strengthening. Most of the
global models, primarily the GFS and the HWRF, forecast a favorable
upper-level environment for the system to redevelop, if the
the cyclone survives its path over land. On this basis, the NHC
forecast now maintains tropical depression status through five days.

Steering currents are weak, and the depression has been meandering
during the past few hours. The cyclone is located at the base of a
mid-level trough, and most likely the depression will drift eastward
for the next 3 days while on the south side of the trough. Once
in the northwestern Caribbean Sea, the trough is forecast to lift
out and a narrow ridge will develop to the north of the cyclone.
This synoptic pattern should keep the cyclone with little motion in
the northwestern Caribbean Sea late in the forecast period. However,
the final portion of the NHC forecast continues to be highly
uncertain, and is based on the blend of the GFS, ECMWF and HWRF
model solutions.

Rains currently affecting western Cuba and south Florida are not
directly related to the tropical depression.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 19.4N 92.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 19.3N 91.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 19.0N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/0000Z 18.8N 89.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/1200Z 18.5N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 25/1200Z 18.5N 87.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 18.5N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 18.5N 84.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: NINE - Advisories

#6 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 22, 2014 12:36 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014
100 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DRIFTING EASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 92.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CELESTUN TO FRONTERA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING EASTWARD ABOUT 4 MPH...6 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE
NEAR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT
MOVES INLAND...BUT SOME WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ONCE THE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Re: ATL: NINE - Advisories

#7 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 22, 2014 3:33 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014
400 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

The depression still has a well defined circulation, but the
associated convection has been gradually decreasing during the day.
Based on earlier reconnaissance data, the initial intensity is
kept at 30 kt. Given the deterioration of the cloud pattern and the
shear over the cyclone, it is less likely that the depression will
attain tropical storm status before it moves inland over the Yucatan
peninsula in about 12 hours or less. The NHC forecast keeps the
cyclone as a tropical depression through 5 days as it crosses
Yucatan and moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. There
is also a chance that the system dissipates over land in about 24
hours or so. The GFS changed its tune significantly between the
06z and the 12z runs. It developed a strong tropical storm in the
Caribbean in the earlier run, and only a weak trough in the 12z one.
On the other hand, both the ECMWF and the HWRF maintain a cyclone
for the next few days. This makes the intensity forecast highly
uncertain, primarily since the GFS model could redevelop a cyclone
in the next run.

The depression has been moving slowly toward the east-southeast or
115 degrees at 4 knots. The cyclone is located at the base of a
mid-level trough, embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. This
pattern will steer the depression on a general eastward track over
Yucatan, and as the trough lifts out the depression could meander
in the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Rains currently affecting western Cuba and south Florida are not
directly related to the tropical depression.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 19.2N 91.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 19.0N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 23/1800Z 18.6N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/0600Z 18.0N 89.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/1800Z 18.0N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 25/1800Z 18.0N 87.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 18.0N 85.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 18.0N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: NINE - Advisories

#8 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 22, 2014 6:54 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014
700 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...SMALL DEPRESSION NEARING THE COAST OF CAMPECHE...
...COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 91.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION
WILL MOVE ASHORE ALONG THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF CAMPECHE
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST WHILE THE
DEPRESSION MOVES INLAND...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A REMNANT
TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: ATL: NINE - Advisories

#9 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 22, 2014 9:37 pm

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014
1000 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Radar data from Mexico indicates that the cyclone moved inland
between Campeche and Ciudad del Carmen just after 0000 UTC this
evening. Surface and aircraft reconnaissance data suggest that the
maximum winds had decreased to around 25 kt and that the minimum
pressure was 1004 mb when the depression crossed the coast. The
system has not produced a significant area of organized deep
convection since late this morning and it is therefore being
declared a remnant low at this time. The low is expected to weaken
during the next couple of days while it moves over the Yucatan
Peninsula. If the low emerges over the northwestern Caribbean Sea,
dry air and westerly shear are expected to prevent regeneration.
The new NHC forecast follows the last couple runs of the GFS and
call for dissipation in 3 to 4 days.

The cyclone is moving east-southeastward at about 5 kt. A slow
east-southeast to southeast motion is expected to continue during
the next few days. The updated NHC track has been shifted a little
left of the previous track to be closer the latest GFS guidance and
the multi-model consensus.

Rains currently affecting western Cuba and south Florida are not
directly related to this system.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 18.9N 90.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 23/1200Z 18.8N 90.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 24/0000Z 18.5N 89.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/1200Z 18.2N 88.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/0000Z 17.8N 88.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/0000Z 17.3N 87.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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