NIO: NILOFAR - Severe Cyclonic Storm

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NIO: NILOFAR - Severe Cyclonic Storm

#1 Postby jaguarjace » Wed Oct 22, 2014 9:07 am

90A INVEST 141022 1200 10.7N 70.7E IO 15 1010
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Last edited by jaguarjace on Thu Oct 30, 2014 1:24 am, edited 6 times in total.
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Re: NIO: INVEST 90A

#2 Postby wxman57 » Wed Oct 22, 2014 3:53 pm

Euro takes it to 949mb and moves it inland north of Mumbai in 7-8 days. Something to keep an eye on.
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Re: NIO: INVEST 90A

#3 Postby jaguarjace » Thu Oct 23, 2014 2:56 am

JTWC:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.8N 68.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 490 NM WEST OF COCHIN, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE AREA (ABOUT 800 NM IN DIAMETER) OF
INTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 221657Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS WEAK
AND FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING BROADLY WRAPPING TOWARDS THE
CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OFFSET BY EXCELLENT OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. NAVGEM AND GFS MODELS FAVOR DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM,
AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST ARABIAN SEA IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
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#4 Postby Alyono » Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:52 pm

models are trending toward a very strong cyclone striking Oman
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Re: NIO: INVEST 90A

#5 Postby jaguarjace » Fri Oct 24, 2014 2:05 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6N
62.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 61.2E, APPROXIMATELY 700 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF SLOWLY ORGANIZING DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A
POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH POSSIBLE
MULTIPLE MESOVORTICES. THE 850MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE AND ANIMATION
OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO SHOWS SIGNS OF IMPROVING
ORGANIZATION. A 240359Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS WEAK AND
FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING BROADLY WRAPPING TOWARDS THE LLCC.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
OF MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW. MULTIPLE GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING THIS DISTURBANCE INTO
A BROAD TROPICAL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST ARABIAN SEA OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23
TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVEMENT IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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#6 Postby alhddar » Fri Oct 24, 2014 2:49 am

Image
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#7 Postby alhddar » Fri Oct 24, 2014 2:52 am

Image
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Re: NIO: INVEST 90A

#8 Postby jaguarjace » Fri Oct 24, 2014 5:58 am

No floater so I've made one.
Image
Not an official product from SSD. I created this product for informational purposes.
Last edited by jaguarjace on Mon Oct 27, 2014 7:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#9 Postby Alyono » Fri Oct 24, 2014 8:55 pm

If this does miss Oman, we could be looking at a historic cyclone for Pakistan. MU has this at 952mb at landfall
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Re: NIO: INVEST 90A - Depression

#10 Postby jaguarjace » Sat Oct 25, 2014 12:29 am

INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

Time of issue: 0900 hours IST
Dated: 25.10.2014
Bulletin No.: ARB02/2014/01

Sub: Depression over westcentral and adjoining southwest Arabian Sea.

Latest satellite imagery and observations indicate that a depression has formed
over westcentral and adjoining southwest Arabian Sea and lay centred at 0530 hours IST
of today, the 25th October, 2014 near latitude 12.50 N and longitude 61.50 E, about 1400
km west-southwest of Mumbai and 940 km east-southeast of Salalah (Oman). It would
move initially west-northwestwards towards south Oman and adjoining Yemen coast
during next 72 hrs. It would intensify into a deep depression within next 24 hrs and may
intensify further into a cyclonic storm during subsequent 24 hrs.

The next bulletin will be issued at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 25th October, 2014.
http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/indian.pdf
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Re: NIO: INVEST 90A - Depression

#11 Postby ugaap » Sat Oct 25, 2014 10:27 am

Already numbered Cyclone 04A.FOUR
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Re: NIO: INVEST 90A - Depression

#12 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 25, 2014 10:54 am

Image

WTIO31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (FOUR) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/242151Z OCT 14//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 13.4N 62.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 62.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 14.0N 62.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 14.7N 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 15.2N 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 15.8N 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 17.4N 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.4N 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.3N 61.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 62.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 471 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND MORE TIGHTLY WRAPPED DESPITE
BROKEN AND UNORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER, A RECENT 251356Z SSMIS
37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AS
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED UPON THIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH INCREASING
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED UPON THE
INCREASING STRUCTURE SEEN SEVERAL RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES AND A
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF THE SAME VALUE FROM KNES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS
PROVIDING LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND GOOD OUTFLOW. TC 04A IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG A LOBE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THIS LOBE OF THE STR IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND RETRACT WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE SYSTEM SLOWING AND
DRIFTING NORTH WHILE A TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH MODIFIES THE STR.
AFTER TAU 24, THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND THE STR IS
EXPECTED TO REBUILD NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND DEFLECT THE SYSTEM ON A
MORE NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER WHICH, ANOTHER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND FORCE THE SYSTEM TO TURN BACK TO
THE NORTHEAST. A STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 72
AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD
OUTFLOW AND VWS REMAIN FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 72, INCREASING VWS FROM
THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO
ENCOUNTER THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
BECOMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK BUT THERE IS
STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WHICH
IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z,
260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN 242151Z OCT 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 242200).//
NNNN
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#13 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 25, 2014 1:21 pm

intensity forecast is likely way too low as the model guidance is showing dramatic intensification during the next 72 hours.
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Re: NIO: FOUR - Tropical Cyclone 04A

#14 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Oct 25, 2014 10:37 pm

If I'm not mistaken, the GFS was the first to pick up development of this system at long range (+300 hours)...and was first to show a Pakistan-India border landfall... however isn't it a rare track brushing Oman coast and then tracking ENE to Pakistan? It would have been a weaker system then....
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Re: NIO: FOUR - Tropical Cyclone 04A

#15 Postby jaguarjace » Sun Oct 26, 2014 2:44 am

INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

Time of issue: 1130 hours IST
Dated: 26.10.2014
Bulletin No.: ARB02/2014/07

Sub: Deep Depression over westcentral and adjoining southwest Arabian Sea.

The depression over westcentral and adjoining southwest Arabian Sea remained practically
stationary, intensified into a Deep Depression and lay centred at 0830 hours IST of 26th October, 2014
near latitude 14.00 N and longitude 62.00 E, about 1270 km west-southwest of Mumbai and 910 km
east-southeast of Salalah (Oman). It would move initially north-northwestwards during next 48 hrs
and then recurve northeastwards towards north Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coast during subsequent
72 hrs. It would intensify into a cyclonic storm during next 12 hrs. and into a severe cyclonic storm
during subsequent 24 hrs.

The next bulletin will be issued at 1430 hrs IST of today the 26th October, 2014.
http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/indian.pdf
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#16 Postby weathernerdguy » Sun Oct 26, 2014 3:56 pm

looks like it is trying to pop out a eye
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#17 Postby weathernerdguy » Sun Oct 26, 2014 8:07 pm

looks like a category 2-3
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#18 Postby Alyono » Sun Oct 26, 2014 10:05 pm

EC is also showing this collapsing before it makes landfall

not sure it will dissipate, but it may not be more than a cat 1 equivalent at landfall. Still, if that hits Karachi, it would be devastating
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#19 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Oct 26, 2014 11:23 pm

Image

intensifying
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#20 Postby badkhan » Mon Oct 27, 2014 3:14 am

It would be very deadly if it makes a landfall at Karachi, the city is a mostly unplanned 20 million metropolis with a derelict sewerage system that generally tends to flood in regular monsoon rain. Moreover, I've heard this saying growing up in the city, that the city is built in a bowl like area below sea level i.e. if a cyclone is to hit Karachi, it would be inundated. We've had a close brush in 93, lets see how this goes.
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