EPAC: VANCE - Remnants

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Re: EPAC: VANCE - Hurricane

#161 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 03, 2014 9:42 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
700 PM PST MON NOV 03 2014

...VANCE STILL A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 110.6W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES



HURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
700 PM PST MON NOV 03 2014

Vance has maintained a well-defined central dense overcast pattern
since the previous advisory, although the eye has become less
distinct in infrared and recent SSMI/S microwave imagery. However,
cloud tops colder than -80C now completely encircle the remnant eye
feature in infrared imagery. An average of Dvorak current intensity
estimates yields a value of 96 kt, so the initial intensity is
being maintained at 95 kt.

Vance has started to recurve to the north-northeast and the initial
motion estimate is now 020/11 kt. The hurricane is expected to move
in a general north-northeastward to northeastward direction within
south-southwesterly steering flow between the subtropical ridge to
the east and an approaching deep-layer trough to the west. As a
result, Vance is expected to pass just east of Socorro Island
tonight and be near the southwestern coast of Mexico in 48 hours or
so. The NHC model guidance is in decent agreement on this scenario,
and the official forecast track is just an update of the previous
advisory track and lies close to the blend of the GFS and ECMWF
model solutions.

The latest SHIPS guidance indicates south-southwesterly vertical
wind shear of at least 30 affecting Vance. Although this estimate
could be a little overdone given the impressive infrared satellite
signature, a 0134 UTC SSMI/S microwave overpass suggests that the
circulation is starting to tilt downstream to the northeast due to
the shear. The vertical shear is forecast by all of the global
models to steadily increase throughout the forecast period, which
should result in steady or rapid weakening until landfall occurs in
about 48 hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the
previous advisory and is close to a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM
models, which is just slightly above the consensus model ICON. The
forecast still calls for Vance to become a tropical depression just
offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. However, due to the
uncertainty in the exact timing of the expected weakening trend, the
Government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm for portions of
southwestern mainland Mexico.

Moisture from Vance and its remnants should spread northeastward
across Mexico and into the south-central United States during the
next several days. This is likely to produce heavy rains over
portions of these areas through Thursday or Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 17.4N 110.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 18.8N 110.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 20.5N 109.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 22.7N 108.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 24.6N 107.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 25.5N 108.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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#162 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Nov 03, 2014 11:03 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 NOV 2014 Time : 030000 UTC
Lat : 17:38:59 N Lon : 110:07:42 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 959.3mb/ 99.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.4 5.4

Center Temp : -75.6C Cloud Region Temp : -77.2C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 90km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 35.1 degrees
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#163 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Nov 04, 2014 12:49 am

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 040531
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE VANCE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
1000 PM PST MON NOV 03 2014

...VANCE PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM PST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 110.4W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM SE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAZATLAN NORTHWARD TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VANCE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM PST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE VANCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.4 WEST. VANCE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...VANCE IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST EAST OF
SOCORRO ISLAND IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND
STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...VANCE AND MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 12 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE STATES OF
SINALOA...NAYARIT....AND DURANGO IN WESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY VANCE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...100 AM PST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Re: EPAC: VANCE - Hurricane

#164 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 04, 2014 5:35 am

HURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
100 AM PST TUE NOV 04 2014

Satellite images indicate that the anticipated weakening of Vance
has begun. The cloud pattern has become decidedly less circular and
more ragged over the past several hours, and the overall coverage of
deep convection is gradually decreasing. The current intensity is
set at 90 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB, although
this may be generous given the most recent satellite presentation.
More than 30 kt of south-southwesterly vertical shear is currently
affecting the hurricane, and this shear is forecast to increase to
about 45-55 kt in 24 to 36 hours. Vertical cross sections from the
latest GFS model forecast show that most of the tropical cyclone's
circulation above 500 mb is removed within the next 24 hours,
presumably due to the intense shear. These very hostile dynamical
conditions should result in a rather rapid rate of weakening before
the tropical cyclone nears the Mexican coast. The official
intensity forecast closely follows the latest SHIPS prediction.
Although Vance could weaken to a depression by the time it reaches
the coast, given the uncertainties in intensity prediction, it is
prudent to have a tropical storm watch at this time.

It is estimated that the low-level center is near the southwestern
edge of the main convective mass, and the initial motion estimate
of 025/11 kt is not much different from the previous package.
Vance is expected to continue moving north-northeastward to the
south and southeast of a mid-level trough over the next day or two.
The official track forecast lies between the latest GFS and ECMWF
predictions, and lies a little to the east of the multi-model
consensus.

Moisture from Vance and its remnants should spread northeastward
across Mexico and into the south-central United States during the
next several days. This is likely to produce heavy rains over
portions of these areas through Thursday or Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 18.4N 110.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 19.8N 109.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 22.0N 108.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 24.1N 107.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 26.0N 107.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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#165 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Nov 04, 2014 7:40 am

It had its chance. Never mind. :(
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Re: EPAC: VANCE - Hurricane

#166 Postby wxman57 » Tue Nov 04, 2014 8:38 am

Looks closer to 50kts, currently.
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Re: EPAC: VANCE - Hurricane

#167 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 04, 2014 9:42 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
700 AM PST TUE NOV 04 2014

...VANCE RAPIDLY WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 109.6W
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM ENE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES



HURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
700 AM PST TUE NOV 04 2014


Conventional and microwave satellite data indicate that Vance is
losing organization due to the effects of 35-40 kt of vertical wind
shear. The cloud pattern has become elongated, and the low-level
center is near the southern edge of the convection. The initial
intensity is lowered to 75 kt based on various satellite intensity
estimates, and this could be a bit generous.

The initial motion is 025/11. The GFS, ECMWF, GFDL, and Florida
State Superensemble models forecast Vance to move generally
northeastward and make landfall on the coast of Mexico in 24-36
hours. The official forecast does likewise, and the new forecast is
similar to that of the previous advisory. It cannot be ruled out
that Vance will completely shear apart before landfall, with the
low-level center moving slower toward the northeast than currently
forecast.

The large-scale models forecast even stronger shear over Vance
during the next 24-36 hours, and this should cause rapid weakening.
The new intensity forecast follows this scenario and is in best
agreement with the SHIPS model. Although Vance could weaken to a
depression by the time it makes landfall, given the uncertainties in
intensity prediction it remains prudent to have a tropical storm
watch for portions of the coast of Mexico.

Moisture from Vance and its remnants should spread northeastward
across Mexico and into the south-central United States during the
next several days. This is likely to produce heavy rains over
portions of these areas through Thursday or Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 19.3N 109.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 21.0N 108.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 23.2N 107.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 25.3N 107.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: VANCE - Hurricane

#168 Postby wxman57 » Tue Nov 04, 2014 10:49 am

I think that Vance is closer to being a remnant low than a hurricane, It's hard to identify a circulation much less an eye:
Image
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#169 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Nov 04, 2014 12:02 pm

:uarrow: Reminds me a lot of a weakening Rick 09.
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Re: EPAC: VANCE - Hurricane

#170 Postby wxman57 » Tue Nov 04, 2014 12:38 pm

Latest satellite does indicate a circulation, but it's exposed with all convection well to the NE. It's definitely not a hurricane now. Maybe 40-45kt winds in that convection to the NE. Shear is tearing it apart. Ah, I see the NHC just issued an update dropping winds to 70 mph. That's still a bit high, in my opinion.

Image
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Re: EPAC: VANCE - Tropical Storm

#171 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 04, 2014 3:45 pm

TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
100 PM PST TUE NOV 04 2014

The organization of Vance has decreased significantly over the past
several hours due to the effects of 50-60 kt of vertical wind
shear. The low-level center is now exposed to the southwest of
the main convective mass, and the convection has decreased in both
coverage and intensity. The initial intensity is lowered to 55 kt,
and this again could be a little generous.

The initial motion is 030/12. The guidance has trended eastward and
faster since the last advisory, and the dynamical models now
forecast the cyclone to make landfall over mainland Mexico in 18-24
hours. The new forecast track lies a little to the east of the
previous track, but is west of, and slower than, the consensus
models.

Continuing strong shear should cause additional rapid weakening.
The majority of the guidance forecasts Vance to weaken below
tropical-storm strength before landfall, and the new intensity
forecast follows that scenario. However, given the uncertainties in
intensity prediction it remains prudent to have a tropical storm
watch for portions of the coast of Mexico. After landfall, Vance
is expected to dissipate over the mountains of northwestern Mexico.

Moisture from Vance and its remnants is spreading northeastward
across Mexico and into the south-central United States. This is
producing heavy rains over portions of these areas which should
continue through Thursday or Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 20.4N 108.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 22.1N 107.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 24.4N 106.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 06/0600Z 26.5N 106.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: VANCE - Tropical Storm

#172 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 04, 2014 6:43 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM VANCE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
400 PM PST TUE NOV 04 2014

...VANCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM PST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 108.3W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...90 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES
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#173 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 04, 2014 9:47 pm

TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
700 PM PST TUE NOV 04 2014

The convective organization of Vance has continued to erode
significantly since the previous advisory due to strong
south-southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 45 kt and
entrainment of drier air. As a result, the initial intensity has
been decreased to 45 kt based on a blend of various satellite
intensity estimates. Additional rapid weakening is expected until
landfall occurs in about 18 hours or so, and Vance could be a
tropical depression at that time. After landfall, Vance is expected
to quickly dissipate over the mountainous terrain of northwestern
Mexico.

The initial motion estimate is 025/12 kt. There is no significant
change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Vance is
expected to remain embedded within south-southwesterly flow on the
east side of deep-layer trough for the next 24 hours, which should
result in a north-northeastward motion until landfall occurs.

Moisture from Vance is spreading northeastward across Mexico and
into the south-central United States. This is producing heavy rains
over portions of these areas which should continue through Thursday
or Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 21.5N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 23.1N 107.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 25.3N 106.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: VANCE - Tropical Depression

#174 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 05, 2014 5:22 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
100 AM PST WED NOV 05 2014

The end is near for Vance, as the vertical shear over the area is
now over 50 kt. With the rapid spindown of the circulation, the
maximum winds are now estimated to be about 30 kt, making the
cyclone a tropical depression. Accordingly, the government of
Mexico has discontinued the tropical storm watch for their country.
Vance has been devoid of deep convection anywhere near its center
for about 6 hours, and it will likely become a remnant low after
moving inland later today. Complete dissipation of the
surface circulation is expected within 24 hours or less.

Microwave and shortwave infrared imagery indicate that the
cyclone center is located a little to the southeast of the
previously estimated track. After some retrospective adjustments to
the working best track, the initial motion is estimated to be about
050/11 kt. This northeastward movement should continue until
dissipation.

Although the tropical cyclone will dissipate soon, moisture from
Vance or its remnants should continue to spread northeastward
across Mexico and into the south-central United States. This is
producing heavy rains over portions of these areas which should
continue through Thursday or Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 21.9N 106.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 23.0N 105.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: EPAC: VANCE - Tropical Depression

#175 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 05, 2014 9:38 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
700 AM PST WED NOV 05 2014

Vance is currently making landfall along the coast of Mexico to the
southeast of Mazatlan as a tropical depression with maximum winds
estimated to be 25 kt. The cyclone barely meets the qualifications
for a tropical cyclone since the low-level center is becoming
elongated. Vance is producing a small area of deep convection to
the north of the center over western Mexico, and the larger swath of
moisture seen in satellite images to its southeast is not directly
associated with this system.

The weakening cyclone continues to turn to the right, and the
latest initial motion estimate is 055/11. Although a 12-hour
forecast position is shown, it would not be surprising if Vance
dissipates over western Mexico before then.

Even though the tropical cyclone is forecast to dissipate soon,
moisture from the remnants of Vance and the area to its southeast
should continue to spread northeastward across Mexico and into the
south-central United States. This is producing heavy rains over
portions of these areas, which should continue for another day or
two.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 22.7N 105.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 23.0N 105.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: VANCE - Remnants

#176 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 05, 2014 4:00 pm

REMNANTS OF VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
100 PM PST WED NOV 05 2014

Vance made landfall along the coast of Mexico just southeast of
Mazatlan earlier today around 1400 UTC as a tropical depression.
Since then, the low-level center of Vance has dissipated while it
moved farther inland and interacted with the rugged terrain.
Therefore, this is the last advisory issued on Vance by the National
Hurricane Center.

Even though the tropical cyclone has dissipated, moisture from the
remnants of Vance and the area to its south should continue to
spread northeastward across Mexico and into the south-central United
States. This is producing heavy rains over portions of these areas,
which should continue for another day or so.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 23.3N 105.2W 20 KT 25 MPH
12H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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