EPAC: VANCE - Remnants

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EquusStorm
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#101 Postby EquusStorm » Sun Nov 02, 2014 11:15 am

Judging by current satellite presentation, and this year's trend in the Epac, I truly wonder if we might get a major, very briefly. I really hope we do... if memory serves it would break the record for most majors in one year in the basin. And this has certainly been a year for records. Its current presentation makes it look quite poised for rapid intensification until the shear hits. Just check out the banding and the symmetrical core structure.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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#102 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Nov 02, 2014 11:17 am

EquusStorm wrote:Judging by current satellite presentation, and this year's trend in the Epac, I truly wonder if we might get a major, very briefly. I really hope we do... if memory serves it would break the record for most majors in one year in the basin. And this has certainly been a year for records. Its current presentation makes it look quite poised for rapid intensification until the shear hits. Just check out the banding and the symmetrical core structure.


Depends on your definition of basin. Out to 140, yes, Out of 180, we tie 1992 with 10 majors.
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Re: EPAC: VANCE - Hurricane

#103 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 02, 2014 1:49 pm

Up to 75kts.

EP, 21, 2014110218, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1082W, 75, 985, HU, 64, NEQ, 10, 10, 0, 10, 1010, 150, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, VANCE, D,
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Re: Re:

#104 Postby EquusStorm » Sun Nov 02, 2014 1:52 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
EquusStorm wrote:Judging by current satellite presentation, and this year's trend in the Epac, I truly wonder if we might get a major, very briefly. I really hope we do... if memory serves it would break the record for most majors in one year in the basin. And this has certainly been a year for records. Its current presentation makes it look quite poised for rapid intensification until the shear hits. Just check out the banding and the symmetrical core structure.


Depends on your definition of basin. Out to 140, yes, Out of 180, we tie 1992 with 10 majors.


Interesting. Well, I'm cool with either one! Because it looks like it actually might well happen.
Image
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: EPAC: VANCE - Hurricane

#105 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 02, 2014 3:36 pm

HURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
100 PM PST SUN NOV 02 2014

Vance continues to gain strength. An eye has recently become
apparent in visible satellite images and the fairly compact inner
core of the hurricane is getting better organized. In addition,
banding features are well established on the north and east sides
of the circulation. The initial wind speed is raised to 75 kt,
following the Dvorak intensity estimates of 4.5/77 kt from TAFB and
SAB. Vance is currently in favorable environmental conditions with
sea surface temperatures near 29 C, wind shear less than 10 kt, and
high amounts of moisture. Since the hurricane is expected to remain
in this environment for about another 12 to 24 hours, continued
strengthening is predicted in the short term, and the NHC forecast
lies at the high end of the guidance during that time. Beyond 24
hours, however, a substantial increase in southwesterly shear and a
decrease in environmental moisture should cause a steady weakening
trend, and Vance will likely degenerate to a remnant low in 3 to 4
days.

The hurricane is moving northwestward at about 14 kt steered by a
mid-level ridge situated to its northeast over the Gulf of Mexico.
A turn to the north with a reduction in forward speed is expected
during the next 24 to 36 hours, followed by a northeastward motion
as a large trough moves eastward toward the cyclone. There has been
an eastward shift in the guidance beyond 48 hours in this cycle, and
the NHC forecast has been adjusted in that direction.

The initial wind radii were modified based on a pair of ASCAT passes
at around 1700 UTC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 12.8N 108.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 14.1N 109.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 16.0N 110.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 17.7N 110.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 19.3N 109.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 21.5N 108.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 22.5N 108.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: VANCE - Hurricane

#106 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Nov 02, 2014 5:34 pm

Vance is well on its way to become the 10th major hurricane of the season

Image

Image
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#107 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun Nov 02, 2014 5:59 pm

Image
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Re:

#108 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Nov 02, 2014 6:09 pm

spiral wrote:looks a 110 knots cat3 atm on sat and still intensifying me thinks a cat4 before its done and dusted.


I highly doubt this is 110 knts. There's no eye visible yet.
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Re: EPAC: VANCE - Hurricane

#109 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 02, 2014 6:29 pm

:uarrow: No recon planned.
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Re: EPAC: VANCE - Hurricane

#110 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Nov 02, 2014 6:42 pm

Satellite trend suggests RI could be already underway
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Re: Re:

#111 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun Nov 02, 2014 6:44 pm

spiral wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
spiral wrote:looks a 110 knots cat3 atm on sat and still intensifying me thinks a cat4 before its done and dusted.


I highly doubt this is 110 knts. There's no eye visible yet.

I beg to disagree there is a pin eye is there any recon planed on this hurricane?

The eye is evident, but it's still obscured by convection. I highly doubt this is a 110kt cyclone. A case could be made for 80-85kt, however. At least for the time being.
Last edited by TropicalAnalystwx13 on Sun Nov 02, 2014 7:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: VANCE - Hurricane

#112 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Nov 02, 2014 7:05 pm

Image
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Re: EPAC: VANCE - Hurricane

#113 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 02, 2014 7:48 pm

Up to 90kts.

EP, 21, 2014110300, , BEST, 0, 131N, 1093W, 90, 973, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 10, 10, 10, 1008, 200, 5, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, VANCE, D,
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EPAC: VANCE - Hurricane

#114 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Nov 02, 2014 7:51 pm

spiral wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
spiral wrote:looks a 110 knots cat3 atm on sat and still intensifying me thinks a cat4 before its done and dusted.


I highly doubt this is 110 knts. There's no eye visible yet.

I beg to disagree there is a pin eye is there any recon planed on this hurricane?


It's not a pinhole eye probs. No recon is planned, NHC I think over-did recon this year.
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#115 Postby EquusStorm » Sun Nov 02, 2014 7:52 pm

At this point it looks rather certain we're gonna get a major hurricane out of this. It still has almost an entire day to keep intensifying. And it's already so close. It got its act together remarkably quickly... I thought it was about to drop to a TD a couple of days ago.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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#116 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Nov 02, 2014 7:52 pm

:uarrow: 90 kts is probably the best estimate. And the NHC has this.

21E VANCE 141103 0000 13.1N 109.3W EPAC 90 973
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#117 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Nov 02, 2014 7:55 pm

TXPZ21 KNES 030021
TCSENP

A. 21E (VANCE)

B. 03/0000Z

C. 13.2N

D. 109.2W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T5.0/5.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=5.0 BASED ON WH SURROUNDING GRAY SHADE WITH WH EYE
EMBEDDED BY CMG. PT=4.5. MET=4.5. FT IS BASED ON DT. SYYSTEM HAS PEAKED
AND ON WEAKENING TREND.


I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ
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Re:

#118 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Nov 02, 2014 8:01 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:H. REMARKS...DT=5.0 BASED ON WH SURROUNDING GRAY SHADE WITH WH EYE
EMBEDDED BY CMG. PT=4.5. MET=4.5. FT IS BASED ON DT. SYYSTEM HAS PEAKED
AND ON WEAKENING TREND.


It's time to raise a BS flag for SSD
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Re: Re:

#119 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun Nov 02, 2014 8:09 pm

spiral wrote:
TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:The eye is evident, but it's still obscured by convection. I highly doubt this is a 110kt cyclone. A case could be made for 80-85kt, however. At least for the time being.


No need to make my case i rest my case.
:darrow: Image

I'm not sure where you got that, but it's certainly not a chart of NHC's Best Track. They just now upgraded to 90kt; a far cry from the 120kt that image displays.
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Re:

#120 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Nov 02, 2014 8:14 pm

spiral wrote::uarrow:
Time will tell yellow evan could be just fluctuations and VANCE is not done and dusted as per TXPZ21 KNES 030021. As for recon over used on what storm ?there are models still tracking Vance as a strong system making landfall its not a invest its a cane.
Moving on. :)


Sending recon to Hawaii for Ana for a week likely derailed them of funds. And what models bring this onshore as a major?

SSD think it's weakening since the eye kinda disappeared. I agree, it's not weakening.

Euro brings it close to MX now apparently as a high-end TS.
Last edited by Yellow Evan on Sun Nov 02, 2014 8:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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