EPAC: VANCE - Remnants

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Yellow Evan
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#141 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Nov 03, 2014 1:41 pm

EP, 21, 2014110318, , BEST, 0, 159N, 1108W, 95, 965, HU, 34, NEQ, 110, 110, 60, 80, 1007, 175, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, VANCE, D,
EP, 21, 2014110318, , BEST, 0, 159N, 1108W, 95, 965, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 20, 30, 1007, 175, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, VANCE, D,
EP, 21, 2014110318, , BEST, 0, 159N, 1108W, 95, 965, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 15, 10, 15, 1007, 175, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, VANCE, D,
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#142 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Nov 03, 2014 1:42 pm

On another note, the NHC IMO weakens this way too slowly. This will come apart as fast as a system that makes landfall.
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#143 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Nov 03, 2014 2:36 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 NOV 2014 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 16:02:11 N Lon : 110:44:10 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 973.4mb/ 82.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 5.6 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -26.3C Cloud Region Temp : -73.5C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 90km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.6 degrees
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#144 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Nov 03, 2014 2:52 pm

Will the NHC makes it a major at advisory time?
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#145 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Mon Nov 03, 2014 3:05 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Will the NHC makes it a major at advisory time?

I doubt it--I don't think the eye has been warm enough to go 100kt. But I don't work for the NHC, so we'll see. :)

Storms that stop intensifying at 95kt are the worst.
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Re:

#146 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Nov 03, 2014 3:08 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Will the NHC makes it a major at advisory time?


What is TAFB at?
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#147 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Nov 03, 2014 3:09 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 NOV 2014 Time : 190000 UTC
Lat : 16:06:49 N Lon : 110:44:39 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.9 / 969.5mb/ 87.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.9 5.6 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -22.5C Cloud Region Temp : -73.7C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 90km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.6 degrees
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#148 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Nov 03, 2014 3:33 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 NOV 2014 Time : 193000 UTC
Lat : 16:02:24 N Lon : 110:41:56 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.1 / 965.7mb/ 92.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.1 5.7 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -24.3C Cloud Region Temp : -71.5C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 90km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.6 degrees
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Re: EPAC: VANCE - Hurricane

#149 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 03, 2014 3:43 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
100 PM PST MON NOV 03 2014

...VANCE NOT WEAKENING YET....


SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 110.8W
ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES




HURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
100 PM PST MON NOV 03 2014


Earlier today it appeared that Vance was beginning to weaken.
However, that trend has ended and recent satellite images suggest
that the hurricane is a little better organized. The eye is again
evident in satellite images and the inner core of the cyclone is
well intact. The initial intensity is nudged upward to 95 kt,
using a blend of the Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The hurricane is now moving northward at about 10 kt located on
the western side of a mid-level ridge centered over the Gulf of
Mexico. Water vapor images show a high amplitude trough digging to
the west of Vance. This feature is expected to steer the system
north-northeastward during the next couple of days, bringing a much
weaker cyclone near the southwestern coast of Mexico in 2 to 3 days.

Even though Vance has strengthened some this afternoon, steady or
even rapid weakening is still anticipated due to a pronounced
increase in southwesterly shear and drier air. In fact, the SHIPS
model shows extremely hostile shear conditions with values near 30
kt tonight and more than 40 kt tomorrow. The NHC intensity forecast
is the same as the previous one and lies very close to the model
consensus. The current forecast calls for Vance to become a
tropical depression offshore. However, if Vance does not begin to
weaken soon, then the chances of tropical storm conditions reaching
the coast will increase.

Moisture from Vance and its remnants should spread northeastward
across Mexico and into the south-central United States during the
next several days. This is likely to produce heavy rains over
portions of these areas through Thursday or Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 16.4N 110.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 17.8N 110.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 19.6N 109.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 21.4N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 23.4N 108.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 25.0N 108.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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#150 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Nov 03, 2014 3:44 pm

ZCZC MIATCPEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
HURRICANE VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
100 PM PST MON NOV 03 2014

...VANCE NOT WEAKENING YET....


SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 110.8W
ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
VANCE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE VANCE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.8 WEST. VANCE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT...AND
STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...VANCE AND MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 12 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE STATES OF
SINALOA...NAYARIT....AND DURANGO IN WESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY VANCE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...700 PM PST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

NNNN
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#151 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Nov 03, 2014 3:50 pm

Let's hope it can holds on for another 6 hours under 30kt of shear and we will get our 10th major :roll:
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#152 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Nov 03, 2014 4:04 pm

Hurricane 21E

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm


Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 NOV 2014 Time : 200000 UTC
Lat : 16:21:55 N Lon : 110:45:23 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 963.7mb/ 94.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 5.7 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -23.8C Cloud Region Temp : -73.5C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 90km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.7 degrees
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#153 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Nov 03, 2014 5:29 pm

It's done. Getting sheared apart.
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#154 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Mon Nov 03, 2014 7:01 pm

This is about as close as you can get to becoming a major hurricane without actually being upgraded. SAB was already T5.5 at 18z, we'll see if the eye can warm the slightest more to push Vance over the edge.

2014NOV03 230000 5.3 961.6 97.2 5.3 5.8 7.0 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF -26.28 -76.30 EYE/P -99 IR 43.5 16.77 110.72 SPRL GOES15 34.0

Image
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#155 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Nov 03, 2014 7:30 pm

2014NOV03 223000 5.3 961.6 97.2 5.3 5.8 7.1 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF -26.88 -76.81 EYE/P -99 IR 43.5 16.69 110.73 SPRL GOES15 34.0

Wow, we got 7.1 ADT while I was gone.
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Re: EPAC: VANCE - Hurricane

#156 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Nov 03, 2014 7:36 pm

TXPZ21 KNES 040022
TCSENP

A. 21E (VANCE)

B. 04/0000Z

C. 16.9N

D. 110.7W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T5.0/5.5/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN W FOR A DT=5.0. MET AND PT ARE ALSO
5.0. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MCCARTHY
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#157 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Nov 03, 2014 7:47 pm

20141104 0000 16.9 110.7 T5.0/5.5 21E VANCE

Choking in the clutch.
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#158 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Nov 03, 2014 7:51 pm

EP, 21, 2014110400, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1108W, 95, 965, HU, 34, NEQ, 110, 110, 60, 80, 1007, 175, 5, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, VANCE, D,
EP, 21, 2014110400, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1108W, 95, 965, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 20, 30, 1007, 175, 5, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, VANCE, D,
EP, 21, 2014110400, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1108W, 95, 965, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 15, 10, 15, 1007, 175, 5, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, VANCE, D,
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#159 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Nov 03, 2014 8:46 pm

I think it might get an upgrade in post-analysis, probably at 1800Z...
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#160 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Nov 03, 2014 9:35 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 NOV 2014 Time : 013000 UTC
Lat : 17:09:47 N Lon : 110:26:08 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 959.5mb/ 99.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.6 5.6

Center Temp : -75.1C Cloud Region Temp : -77.5C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 90km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 34.5 degrees
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