EPAC: VANCE - Remnants

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#81 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 31, 2014 6:10 pm

somethingfunny wrote:I don't think Vance is gonna make it to hurricane.


I don't see why not. Shear is going to reduce to very low values very soon. Dry air will subside thereafter. SST's are quite warm.

We've gone through this with every EPAC storms the past month or so (Odile, Rachel, Simon, and Ana all struggled early on, and all were of at least 75 knts).
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#82 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Oct 31, 2014 8:09 pm

Local media says Vance looked like a pumpkin today,
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Re: EPAC: VANCE - Tropical Storm

#83 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 31, 2014 9:36 pm

TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

Most of the available intensity analyses indicate that Vance has
weakened since the previous advisory and is barely holding on to
tropical cyclone status at that. The initial intensity of 35 kt is
based on a blend of satellite intensity estimates of 35 kt, 30 kt,
and 33 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT, respectively.

Visible and microwave fix positions over the past few hours suggest
that Vance has been moving slowly westward or just south of due
west, so the initial motion estimate is now 270/05 kt. Otherwise,
there is no significant change to the previous forecast track or
reasoning. A general westward motion should continue through
Saturday, followed by a turn to the west-northwest and northwest on
Sunday as Vance moves around the southwestern periphery of a
deep-layer ridge located to the north of the cyclone. As a
mid-tropospheric trough approaches Baja California on Monday, Vance
is forecast to move northward, followed by a turn and acceleration
toward the northeast on Tuesday. The latest model guidance is in
better agreement for this forecast cycle and is more tightly packed
as well. Therefore, the new NHC forecast track is basically just an
update of the previous advisory track, and closely follows the TVCE
consensus track model.

Although the convective cloud pattern of Vance has eroded
significantly during the past several hours, a small burst of deep
convection has recently developed over the center. Overall, however,
the cyclone has maintained a well-developed low-level wind field.
Dry mid-level air that has been plaguing Vance from the outset is
expected to give way to a more moist environment in the 12-48 hour
time period while the vertical wind shear remains rather low at less
than 5 kt. The result is that Vance is forecast to gradually
strengthen and become a hurricane by late Sunday. By 72 hours and
beyond, southwesterly vertical shear is expected to sharply increase
ahead of the aforementioned trough, causing the cyclone to rapidly
weaken. However, it is worth noting that Vance could reach a higher
peak intensity between the 48- and 72-hour periods before the
weakening trend begins. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous advisory forecast, and is a blend of the SHIPS and HWRF
intensity models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 9.5N 101.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 9.5N 103.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 10.0N 105.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 11.1N 107.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 12.6N 109.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 16.5N 110.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 20.1N 108.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 24.3N 105.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: VANCE - Tropical Storm

#84 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 01, 2014 5:19 am

TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
200 AM PDT SAT NOV 01 2014

Vance's structure has been improving since the last advisory. A
cluster of deep convection has developed near the center, and more
defined curved bands are forming on the outer edges of the
circulation. The maximum winds are held at 35 kt based on a
consensus of subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates.

The first three days of the forecast are fairly straightforward.
Vance is expected to turn west-northwestward later today,
accelerate northwestward toward a deepening mid-level trough west of
110W by day 2, and curve toward the north on day 3. The track
guidance remains tightly clustered but has shifted westward after
36 hours. Therefore, the updated NHC track forecast is a little
left of the previous one from 36 to 72 hours. While Vance turns
northward, light vertical shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and
a moistening mid-level troposphere should allow the storm to reach
hurricane strength in 2-3 days. This part of the forecast closely
follows the SHIPS, HWRF, and Florida State Superensemble guidance.

The forecast is a little more complex after day 3. Once Vance
begins to recurve, it will encounter southwesterly shear that
increases from 20-25 kt on day 3 to well over 40 kt on days 4 and
5. This environment is likely to cause the cyclone to decouple,
with the mid-level circulation being sheared off toward Mexico and
the low-level circulation being left behind south of the Baja
California peninsula. While the operational GFS brings Vance to
the coast of Mexico in 96 hours, the parallel run of GFS and the
ECMWF model have much slower and weaker solutions and do not bring
the surface center to the Mexican coast. As additional support for
this scenario, most of the GFS and European ensemble members show
Vance lingering or even dissipating offshore. At this time, the
operational GFS is considered an outlier solution, and the NHC
track forecast is closer to a blend of the European and parallel
GFS models. Due to the shear, Vance is expected to weaken rapidly
after day 3, possibly becoming a remnant low near or offshore the
coast of Mexico by day 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 9.4N 102.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 9.7N 104.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 10.5N 106.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 11.6N 108.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 13.2N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 17.1N 110.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 20.5N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 23.5N 106.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: VANCE - Tropical Storm

#85 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 01, 2014 9:52 am

TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
800 AM PDT SAT NOV 01 2014

The structure of Vance continues to improve, albeit slowly. The
first-light visible images show that the center is in the northern
portion of the central dense overcast, with recent microwave data
suggesting the development of a more solid inner core. A blend of
the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates support raising
the initial wind speed to 40 kt. Vance has ample opportunity to
strengthen for about the next 2 days while it remains over very warm
waters with low shear conditions. Little change is made to the
forecast intensity during that time, which is just a bit higher than
the model consensus. Thereafter, shear is forecast to increase
markedly, with rather hostile conditions expected while the cyclone
approaches Mexico. Guidance has trended sharply downward at days
3-5, and the latest NHC forecast is adjusted in that direction.

Vance is moving about 280/6 kt. The cyclone is expected to move
much faster toward the west-northwest later today, and then move
northwestward toward a deepening mid-level trough west of 110W by
day 2. Similar to the last advisory, the track guidance remains
tightly clustered but has shifted westward during the first 2 days.
Thus, the updated NHC track forecast is a little left of the
previous one through 48 hours. After that time, the mid-level trough
is expected to steer Vance to the north and north-northeast on days
3 and 4. Guidance is coming into better agreement on this solution,
with the 06z GFS having trended left of its 00z solution, and no
changes were made to the official NHC forecast. While the latest
NHC prediction still shows Vance moving onshore of the coast of
Mexico around day 5, it is a distinct possibility that the
low-level center will remain offshore due to the cyclone decoupling
from the mid-level flow.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 9.6N 103.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 10.2N 104.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 11.1N 107.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 12.5N 109.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 14.3N 110.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 18.1N 109.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 22.5N 107.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 23.5N 106.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: EPAC: VANCE - Tropical Storm

#86 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 01, 2014 3:44 pm

TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
200 PM PDT SAT NOV 01 2014

Vance appears to be gradually organizing in satellite imagery. The
central convection has increased a bit over the past few hours, and
convective banding has also increased in coverage. However,
satellite intensity estimates remain unchanged, and the initial
intensity remains 40 kt. The increase in convective coverage is
consistent with a gradual moistening of the near-storm environment
as seen in the SHIPS model analyses, and conditions appear conducive
for gradual strengthening during the next 48 hours. The NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and shows Vance
reaching hurricane status in about 2 days. After that time, the
shear increases dramatically, which should result in quick weakening
to remnant low status by day 4. The NHC prediction is close to the
Decay-SHIPS model and a little above the intensity consensus through
the period.

The initial motion estimate is 290/11, as Vance is feeling the
effects of a strengthening mid-level ridge to the north. Vance
should move generally west-northwestward through 24 hours and then
turn northward by 48 hours as it moves between the ridge and an
amplifying mid/upper-level trough digging southward over the
southwestern United States and Baja California. Late in the period,
a weakening Vance is expected to turn north-northeastward as the
cyclone decouples in the strong shear, leaving a remnant low
drifting erratically by the end of the forecast period. The guidance
has trended faster in the short term this cycle, and generally shows
a broader recurvature through 48 hours. The NHC forecast has been
trended in that direction, but lies a little east of the multi-model
consensus at 36 and 48 hours. After that time, the spread in the
guidance increases. The ECMWF and UKMET models both show Vance
interacting to some degree with a disturbance moving northward
around the eastern side of the tropical cyclone. In particular, the
ECMWF shows Vance weakening and then merging with the other system,
resulting in a track far to the south of the rest of the models. The
GFS remains farther north and east, but shows a westward turn by day
5. The NHC forecast late in the period has been slowed down and
shows the remnant low meandering between Cabo San Lucas and Cabo
Corrientes at days 4 and 5. However, this forecast is east of the
multi-model consensus out of respect for continuity, and confidence
in the details of the track forecast late in the period is quite
low.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 10.1N 104.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 10.8N 106.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 12.0N 108.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 13.5N 110.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 15.2N 111.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 18.7N 109.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 21.5N 108.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/1800Z 22.0N 108.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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#87 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Nov 01, 2014 6:52 pm

Getting there.


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 NOV 2014 Time : 224500 UTC
Lat : 10:14:54 N Lon : 104:44:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1005.6mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.1 3.4

Center Temp : -73.9C Cloud Region Temp : -60.8C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 33km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
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Re: EPAC: VANCE - Tropical Storm

#88 Postby tolakram » Sat Nov 01, 2014 6:56 pm

Nice blowup over the last few hours, looks like very little shear at the moment.

saved loop

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Re: EPAC: VANCE - Tropical Storm

#89 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 01, 2014 7:51 pm

00z Best Track up to 45kts.

EP, 21, 2014110200, , BEST, 0, 100N, 1049W, 45, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 30, 30, 40, 1010, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, VANCE, D,
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Re: EPAC: VANCE - Tropical Storm

#90 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 01, 2014 9:36 pm

TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
800 PM PDT SAT NOV 01 2014

Vance's convective organization has improved considerably since the
previous advisory with a central dense overcast feature having
developed during the past few hours. In addition, recent SSMI/S and
WindSat microwave satellite imagery indicate that a small precursor
eye feature with a diameter 10-12 nmi has developed. The initial
intensity has been increased to 45 kt based on consensus satellite
intensity estimates of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT.

The initial motion estimate remains 290/11 kt. For the next 24 hours
or so, Vance is expected to move west-northwestward along the
southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge located to its north. After
that, a turn to the north is forecast as the cyclone moves around
the ridge and ahead of an approaching mid-tropospheric trough that
will be moving across Baja California in the 48-72 hour time frame.
By late in the forecast period, Vance is expected to weaken
rapidly, with the low- and upper-level circulations decoupling. The
remnant low is forecast to meander off of the southwestern coast
of Mexico and the southern tip of Baja California. The NHC forecast
track is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to
the multi-model consensus TVCE.

The mid-level moisture has apparently increased based on the recent
development of significant inner-core convection. With such low
vertical shear conditions and the aforementioned eye-like feature,
rapid intensification is a very distinct possibility during the
next 24-36 hours. The NHC official intensity forecast has been
increased above the previous advisory forecast through 48 hours,
which is above the intensity consensus model ICON and is about
midway between the GFDL and HWRF intensity forecasts. After that,
the intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory due
to expected strong southwesterly vertical shear conditions of at
least 35-40 kt, which should result in rapid weakening of Vance and
degeneration into a remnant low on Days 4 and 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 10.2N 105.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 11.2N 107.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 12.6N 109.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 14.3N 110.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 16.0N 110.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 18.8N 109.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 21.0N 108.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/0000Z 22.0N 108.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: VANCE - Tropical Storm

#91 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Nov 01, 2014 11:03 pm

My "go for broke" intensity forecast calls Vance to peak as at least a 90kt hurricane by 36 hours, which should not be surprising after all given how the season has behaved so far

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Re: EPAC: VANCE - Tropical Storm

#92 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Nov 01, 2014 11:05 pm

supercane4867 wrote:My "go for broke" intensity forecast calls Vance to peak as at least a 90kt hurricane by 36 hours, which should not be surprising after all given how the season has behaved so far

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It's not as good as it looked an hour or two ago. Ill go even stronger and think this will peak as an 100 knt hurricane.
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#93 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat Nov 01, 2014 11:18 pm

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#94 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Nov 02, 2014 2:18 am

Stronger.

21E VANCE 141102 0600 10.6N 105.9W EPAC 55 998
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Re: EPAC: VANCE - Tropical Storm

#95 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 02, 2014 5:26 am

TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
100 AM PST SUN NOV 02 2014

After struggling to organize during the past couple of days, Vance
is finally in the midst of a definitive strengthening trend, and
close to becoming a hurricane. The low-level center is embedded
beneath very cold cloud tops, and the convective canopy has been
expanding due to good upper-level outflow to the north and west of
the cyclone. The initial intensity is estimated to be 60 kt based
on a blend of Dvorak estimates of T3.5/55 kt from TAFB, T4.0/65 kt
from SAB, and T3.7/59 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT.

Vance is likely going through a period of rapid intensification.
Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are favorable for additional
quick strengthening, and there is a 2 out of 3 chance of a 30-kt
increase in Vance's maximum winds during the next 24 hours based on
the SHIPS Rapid Intensification guidance. The new NHC intensity
forecast has been raised from the previous forecast during the first
48 hours, and it is slightly higher than the most aggressive
intensity models in light of the SHIPS RI numbers. After 48 hours,
Vance is likely to weaken rapidly due to 30-40 kt of southwesterly
shear and a drier mid-level environment. The NHC forecast is
essentially unchanged from the previous one on days 3-5 and closely
follows the SHIPS guidance and the trends noted in the GFS and ECMWF
global models.

Vance is moving a little faster toward the west-northwest, or
295/12 kt. The cyclone is moving along the southwestern periphery
of a mid-level ridge centered over southern Mexico, and toward a
deep-layer trough located between 110W and 130W. Vance is expected
to turn northwestward and northward between these two features
during the next 2 days. Thereafter, the strong shear is forecast
to leave Vance's low-level circulation in a weaker steering
environment south of the Baja California peninsula. The track
guidance has shifted westward, especially after 48 hours, and the
NHC track forecast lies on the eastern edge of the envelope near the
GFS and ECMWF solutions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 10.9N 106.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 12.0N 108.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 13.7N 110.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 15.5N 110.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 17.1N 110.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 18.9N 109.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 20.5N 109.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/0600Z 22.0N 111.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: VANCE - Tropical Storm

#96 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 02, 2014 7:52 am

12z Best Track up to 65kts.

EP, 21, 2014110212, , BEST, 0, 115N, 1069W, 65, 992, HU,
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Re: EPAC: VANCE - Hurricane

#97 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 02, 2014 9:38 am

HURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
700 AM PST SUN NOV 02 2014

Satellite images show that Vance has continued to strengthen this
morning. The cyclone has a cold cloud-topped CDO, with some
overshooting tops near the center, surrounded by banding features.
Objective ADT estimates from UW/CIMSS now support an intensity of 70
kt, which makes the system a hurricane. Vance has fairly strong
upper-level outflow over all but the eastern portion of the
circulation. Additional strengthening is likely during the next 24
hours, and the official intensity forecast is near the high end of
the numerical guidance in the short term. By 36 hours, the
dynamical guidance shows a large increase in southwesterly shear due
to strong upper-level winds north of 15N latitude, and this should
halt any additional strengthening. Vance is expected to weaken
rapidly on days 2 and 3 of the forecast period, and is likely to
degenerate into a remnant low pressure system by day 4. This is
similar to the previous official wind speed forecast.

Latest center fixes indicate that the hurricane is now moving
northwestward, or 310/13 kt. Vance is expected to round the
western periphery of a mid-level ridge and turn northward to
north-northeastward toward a trough over the southwestern United
States during the next couple of days. By late in the forecast
period, the cyclone is likely to become a shallow system that will
turn to the left within the weaker low-level flow. The NHC track
forecast is roughly in the middle of the dynamical guidance
envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 11.9N 107.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 13.1N 108.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 14.8N 110.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 16.7N 110.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 17.8N 110.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 20.0N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 22.0N 109.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/1200Z 22.5N 111.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: EPAC: VANCE - Hurricane

#98 Postby MGC » Sun Nov 02, 2014 10:18 am

Another beautiful looking hurricane in the EPAC. Lets see how strong Vance gets before the shear gets him.....MGC
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Yellow Evan
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#99 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Nov 02, 2014 11:10 am

Is it me or is an eye trying to form?
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#100 Postby HurricaneRyan » Sun Nov 02, 2014 11:14 am

First V storm I've seen since Vince.
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