ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

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ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:47 pm

AL, 95, 2014102618, , BEST, 0, 140N, 520W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2014102700, , BEST, 0, 145N, 535W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2014102706, , BEST, 0, 150N, 546W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2014102712, , BEST, 0, 155N, 555W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2014102718, , BEST, 0, 160N, 564W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0


A tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough is producing
a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms from the Lesser
Antilles eastward over the Atlantic Ocean for several hundred miles.
Development, if any, of this disturbance should be slow to occur
during the next few days since upper-level winds are only marginally
conducive. After that time, conditions are expected to become
unfavorable for development while the system moves northwestward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Regardless of development, this
system will produce brief periods of gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall across the Lesser Antilles through Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...20 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#2 Postby Gustywind » Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:52 pm

cycloneye wrote:AL, 95, 2014102618, , BEST, 0, 140N, 520W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2014102700, , BEST, 0, 145N, 535W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2014102706, , BEST, 0, 150N, 546W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2014102712, , BEST, 0, 155N, 555W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2014102718, , BEST, 0, 160N, 564W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0


A tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough is producing
a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms from the Lesser
Antilles eastward over the Atlantic Ocean for several hundred miles.
Development, if any, of this disturbance should be slow to occur
during the next few days since upper-level winds are only marginally
conducive. After that time, conditions are expected to become
unfavorable for development while the system moves northwestward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Regardless of development, this
system will produce brief periods of gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall across the Lesser Antilles through Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...20 percent.

Waouw, that was very very fast to acquire the status of 95L :eek: :eek:
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#3 Postby Gustywind » Mon Oct 27, 2014 1:00 pm

One thing for sure, i can confirm you that the tstorms near my house were strong enough with numerous lightnings. Hopefully no signs of poweroutage.



Given our journalists from our local radio minor floodings have been already reported. Our Pro Mets said that an yellow alert could be activated this afternoon because of conditions should deteriorate earlier than predicted.
Again, islanders, don't let your guard down!

Regards

Gustywind :)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#4 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 27, 2014 1:18 pm

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#5 Postby Gustywind » Mon Oct 27, 2014 1:18 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

...TROPICAL WAVES...


A TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT 400 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N54W TO 9N54W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI
TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN
HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT ALONG A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT SUSTAIN SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN
50W-60W.
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#6 Postby Gustywind » Mon Oct 27, 2014 1:26 pm

Our Pro Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe have activated the yellow alert have for a risk of strong showers and tstorms.

http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/s ... eloupe.pdf
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#7 Postby lordkev » Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:44 pm

Just some partly cloudy skies here so far...looks like we should start getting some showers soon though.
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#8 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:58 pm

Never say never...but the I name is infamous recently. Can that curse continue even with a November storm?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#9 Postby msbee » Mon Oct 27, 2014 3:31 pm

Be careful Gusty!
I don't like how these storms are blowing up on the Caribbean islands so fast. Everyone got caught unprepared for the strength of Gonzalo. Is this going to be another one?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#10 Postby Gustywind » Mon Oct 27, 2014 3:45 pm

msbee wrote:Be careful Gusty!
I don't like how these storms are blowing up on the Caribbean islands so fast. Everyone got caught unprepared for the strength of Gonzalo. Is this going to be another one?

Hi Barbara :) 100% right with you Barbara! :( :) You have weel resumed this type of hazardous feature. Let's hope that this one is not a member of Gonzalo's family :spam: :) Fore sure, i monitor it carefully as this season is franckly unpredictable, be on our guard is certainly the best way to stay focus.
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#11 Postby abajan » Mon Oct 27, 2014 4:15 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Never say never...but the I name is infamous recently. Can that curse continue even with a November storm?
Well, hopefully it doesn't develop and end up hitting Bermuda like Fay and Gonzalo. Storms seem to have some sort of weird attraction for that island this year! Anyway, they are recovering nicely from their encounters. I hope all you folk in the Leeward Islands can say the same about your situation after Gonzalo.

Incidentally, here's the webcam at the Royal Naval Dockyard in Bermuda which many of us were monitoring during Gonzalo. The Norwegian Dawn cruise ship is in port now with lots of tourist heading back to it. Not sure if it's getting ready to leave or if it'll be docked for a couple more days.
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#12 Postby Hammy » Mon Oct 27, 2014 6:41 pm

Doesn't seem to be a whole lot of model support so far, even the GFS isn't developing it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#13 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 27, 2014 6:43 pm

8 PM TWO:

A tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough continues to
produce a large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms
from the Lesser Antilles eastward over the Atlantic Ocean for
several hundred miles. Development, if any, of this disturbance
should be slow to occur while it moves northwestward to west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next few days since upper-
level winds are expected to be only marginally conducive. By the
weekend, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
development. Regardless of development, this system will produce
brief periods of gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across
portions of the Lesser Antilles through Tuesday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#14 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 27, 2014 8:38 pm

00z Best Track:

AL, 95, 2014102800, , BEST, 0, 164N, 575W, 25, 1010, DB
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#15 Postby Gustywind » Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:12 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 56W AND
60W...AND FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 53W AND 57W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN
50W AND 60W.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#16 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:22 pm

cycloneye wrote:00z Best Track:

AL, 95, 2014102800, , BEST, 0, 164N, 575W, 25, 1010, DB


Text of 00z Best Track:

At 0000 UTC, 28 October 2014, DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL95) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 16.4°N and 57.5°W. The current intensity was 25 kt and the center was moving at 10 kt at a bearing of 295 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb.
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#17 Postby Gustywind » Tue Oct 28, 2014 7:14 am

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N59W TO 10N62W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A
MODERATE TO HIGH DEEP LAYER MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUSTAIN SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION
FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 52W-62W.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#18 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:42 pm

2 PM TWO:

A tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough is producing
a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms a couple of hundred
miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Since
upper-level winds are expected to be marginally conducive, some
gradual development of this disturbance is possible while it moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next
few days. By the weekend, however, conditions are expected to
become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#19 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 28, 2014 1:52 pm

Text of 18z Best Track:

At 1800 UTC, 28 October 2014, DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL95) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 18.1°N and 60°W. The current intensity was 30 kt and the center was moving at 10 kt at a bearing of 300 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb.
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#20 Postby Hammy » Tue Oct 28, 2014 3:13 pm

Low could be forming near 19/60; RGB satellite shows low level inflow from the WSW and the ASCAT (though the system is a bit west of the covered area) shows some SSW-SW wind barbs in the same general area.
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