WPAC: NURI - Post-Tropical

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WPAC: NURI - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby ManilaTC » Tue Oct 28, 2014 2:55 am

96W INVEST 141028 0600 12.7N 149.8E WPAC 15 1010
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#2 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Oct 28, 2014 4:34 am

GFS takes this to Luzon as a TS..while Euro has it tracking a bit south as a closed low (perhaps a weak TD?)..both showing landfall 6 days from now..
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#3 Postby ManilaTC » Tue Oct 28, 2014 6:25 am

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.5N 150.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH WEAK AND FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING THAT
IS BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE FEATURE. A 272332Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
(10 TO 15 KNOTS) LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO
15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 28, 2014 7:03 am

been wondering what this weather is all about...looks like a well defined circulation with flaring deep convection coming closer...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 28, 2014 7:06 am

NWS GUAM 6 hours ago...

JTWC LOW INVEST AREA 96W IS CENTERED NORTH OF CHUUK NEAR 11N151E.
SYSTEM HAS BEEN GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 12
HOURS. AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER HAS BEEN CYCLING.

INCREASED WINDS AROUND 5 KT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LATEST ASCAT IMAGERY INDICATES MODELS ARE NOT INITIALIZING WIND
SPEEDS IN THE VICINITY OF 96W HIGH ENOUGH. NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED
TO BOOST WIND SPEEDS A BIT MORE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.
CONSIDERED THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF 96W...BUT HAVE HELD OFF FOR NOW
BASED ON THE CURRENT LOOSE ORGANIZATION OF 96W.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:12 pm

both gfs and euro keeps this weak even after it emerges in the south china sea...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 28, 2014 1:54 pm

18Z BT

96W INVEST 141028 1800 13.1N 147.6E WPAC 15 1010

East of Guam...
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#8 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:43 pm

so the models are still keeping this weak...maybe conditions in WPAC are not yet conducive?
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#9 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:51 pm

dexterlabio wrote:so the models are still keeping this weak...maybe conditions in WPAC are not yet conducive?


Strong KW over the area, ocean is excellent and it has a nice anticyclone on top of it providing low shear but a strong cold surge is currently affecting northeast and east asia bringing freezing temperatures will likely affect this system maybe preventing anything significant...

however this is bringing some nice weather over us today...breezy and wet :D

Image
Last edited by euro6208 on Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:25 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#10 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:21 am

Latest EURO total precip has a large area of 4.5 to 6.5 inches of rain over some parts of the Marianas...7 inches is possible, although Guam likely will see less between 2.5 to 4 inches when all said is done...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#11 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:47 am

NWS GUAM:

JTWC LOW INVEST AREA 96W IS CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF GUAM NEAR
11N144E. A SECONDARY CIRCULATION IS CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
NEAR 11N147E. SIGNATURE OF 96W IN SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
IMPROVING DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. BASED UPON THIS HAVE
INCREASED WINDS FOR DAYS 2 AND 3 USING THE LATEST GFS40 RUN.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#12 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 29, 2014 1:35 am

Remains LOW

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5N
150.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 145.1E, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH WEAK
AND FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING TRACKING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
GUAM. THE 290454Z SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM PGUM INDICATES SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 8 KNOTS FROM 110 DEGREES, WITH MSLP AT 1008.4MB.
A 290242Z
GCOM MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A SMALL CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH
LOOSELY ORGANIZED BANDING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#13 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 29, 2014 6:32 am

Image

Euro has this recurving and stronger than the GFS which send this into the South China Sea...
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#14 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Oct 29, 2014 1:41 pm

12z GFS keeps 96W as a tropical storm but it is noticeably stronger than shown in the past few runs. 12 ECMWF is pretty much the same with GFS in terms of track and intensity...
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#15 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Wed Oct 29, 2014 8:49 pm

18z GFS has this intensifying very close to landfall, and having this a slow moving storm. It traverses south-central Luzon after striking southern Bicol then intensifying further moving west or WSW annd finally hits central or southern Vietnam.


12z ECMWF shows something quite similar although far north.

We will never know the actual track, they tend to be more west or south in reality; take Rammasun and Haiyan as examples.

Was there a typhoon that took a Rammasun-like track on November? Other than STY Durian?
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Re:

#16 Postby ManilaTC » Thu Oct 30, 2014 1:17 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:18z GFS has this intensifying very close to landfall, and having this a slow moving storm. It traverses south-central Luzon after striking southern Bicol then intensifying further moving west or WSW annd finally hits central or southern Vietnam.


12z ECMWF shows something quite similar although far north.

We will never know the actual track, they tend to be more west or south in reality; take Rammasun and Haiyan as examples.

Was there a typhoon that took a Rammasun-like track on November? Other than STY Durian?


Aplenty. Yoling in 1970, Angela in 1995, Xangsane and Bebinca back to back in 2000 among many others.
Typical November storms take the straight runner path.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#17 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 30, 2014 1:42 am

Upgraded to MEDIUM!

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6N
145.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 140.9E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH IMPROVED, ALBEIT FRAGMENTED,
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A RECENT 300031Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN
IMPROVED LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE AS THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME MORE
DEFINED WHILE THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT DEVELOP THE
SYSTEM FOR SEVERAL DAYS, BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THE
SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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#18 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Oct 30, 2014 1:46 am

GFS is bullish on this.

Image
Last edited by xtyphooncyclonex on Thu Oct 30, 2014 8:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#19 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 30, 2014 2:13 am

:uarrow:

Sinlaku in the Philippine Sea but that is for another thread :D
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#20 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 30, 2014 2:15 am

EURO has this recurving vs GFS's track into the batanes channel...
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