WPAC: NURI - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

^maybe you have not read the JTWC Prognostic Reasoning. Sea surface temperatures in the area are well favorable and conducive for development at around or above 28°C.

Even the conservative ECMWF has this a typhoon.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WTPN31 PGTW 310900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (TWENTY) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 12.6N 136.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 136.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 13.1N 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 14.0N 133.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 15.0N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.2N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.2N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.9N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 22.0N 133.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 136.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (TWENTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 211 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z, 312100Z, 010300Z AND 010900Z.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

TROPICAL STORM NURI

TS 1420 (NURI)
Issued at 07:10 UTC, 31 October 2014

<Analyses at 31/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N12°30'(12.5°)
E136°25'(136.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL170km(90NM)

<Forecast for 01/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°55'(13.9°)
E133°55'(133.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)

<Forecast for 02/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°05'(16.1°)
E132°25'(132.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 03/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°10'(18.2°)
E133°25'(133.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
Storm warning area ALL500km(270NM)

[euro6208]

I like JMA's modeling on this me thinks shear and cold dry air further in the track will limit this to a TS.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _wpac.html

I will believe it when it happens but EURO and GFS deepens this into a strong typhoon. GFS down to 947 mb!

[euro6208]

Still expecting a category 3...

WDPN31 PGTW 310900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (TWENTY)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 20W (TWENTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 211
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
REVEALS A PERSISTENT CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM AS A SMALL CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHILE CONVECTIVE BANDING REMAINS DEFINED.
A 310540Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SOME TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING ALONG THE LLCC WHILE THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS
IMPROVED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE CDO FEATURE IN THE
MSI LOOP AND THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE
SAME VALUE FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND FROM A PREVIOUS 310010Z
ASCAT PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
AS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA WITH LOW
(05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD OUTFLOW. TD 20W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 20W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT 2
DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE POLEWARD AS A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS JAPAN AND MODIFIES THE STR.
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO VERY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA (GREATER THAN 28
CELSIUS), WILL INDUCE STRONG INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 105 KNOTS
BY TAU 72. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE, ALONG WITH ENSEMBLE DATA, IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST, LENDING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 20W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT POLEWARD INTO
A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS THE CURRENT STEERING STR RECEDES TO
THE EAST AND ANOTHER STR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST, LEAVING THE SYSTEM
IN A COL AREA WITH A POSSIBILITY OF QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION.
INCREASING VWS AFTER TAU 72 IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A SLIGHT WEAKENING
TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS WIDELY SPREAD IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE
EXPECTED WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS IN THE
EXTENT OF THE STR. DUE TO THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

Nuri trying to build an eyewall

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Nuri trying to build an eyewall

Does that mean rapid intensification is imminent?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tropics-bin/tropics.cgi?REGION=pacific&SECTOR=western/tropics&AGE=Latest&SIZE=Full&PRODUCT=vapor&PATH=/pacific/western/tropics/vapor&TITLE=CHANGE%20Region/Sector&buttonPressed=Animate&ANIM_TYPE=Instant

Take a close look at NNW looks like dry air is getting very close to venting into the TS.

It may make sense. After all, the official RSMC TOKYO / JMA forecast does not have it reach typhoon intensity within 72 hours. There is also the northeast monsoon over parts of Asia bringing cold, dry air and may hinder development. However, Nuri is currently attempting to build an eyewall and has impressive structure, banding and superb outflow. It may mean it should intensify in a good pace within the next few days.

[ManilaTC]

Now lets see if that trough from the NW does dig in deep enough.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Indeed. The ridge is present, and is quite strong.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Consolidating and getting more organized by the hour, and over increasingly favorable conditions. Also, I am very astonished by Nuri's outflow.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

20W NURI 141031 1200 12.8N 135.4E WPAC 35 996

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Now the JMA Forecasts a typhoon.

TS 1420 (NURI)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 31 October 2014

<Analyses at 31/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N12°55'(12.9°)
E135°30'(135.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL170km(90NM)

<Forecast for 01/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°00'(15.0°)
E133°25'(133.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)

<Forecast for 02/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°55'(16.9°)
E132°30'(132.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 03/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°05'(19.1°)
E134°00'(134.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
Storm warning area ALL500km(270NM)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WTPN31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (NURI) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 12.8N 135.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8N 135.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 13.4N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 14.5N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.7N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 16.9N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.0N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.9N 133.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 22.9N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 135.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (NURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 254 NM NORTHWEST
OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

At a Halloween party and see that we now have tropical storm nuri!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WDPN31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 20W (NURI) WARNING NR
03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 20W (NURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 254 NM
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) REVEALS A
CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM AS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
(CDO) FEATURE HAS CONTINUED TO FLARE OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WHILE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BECOME TIGHTER WRAPPED. A
311018Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE
SYSTEM HAS FURTHER DEVELOPED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE
CDO FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP AND THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE SAME VALUE FROM PGTW AND FROM THE MORE
DEFINED STRUCTURE OBSERVED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THE SYSTEM
IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA WITH LOW (05-10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD OUTFLOW. TS 20W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 20W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE
COURSE OF THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TURN INCREASINGLY MORE POLEWARD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS JAPAN AND MODIFIES THE STR. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE PHILIPPINE SEA (GREATER THAN 28 CELSIUS), WILL INDUCE STRONG
INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 105 KNOTS BY TAU 72. NUMERIC MODEL
GUIDANCE, ALONG WITH ENSEMBLE DATA, IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 20W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT POLEWARD INTO
A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS THE CURRENT STEERING STR RECEDES TO
THE EAST AND ANOTHER STR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST, LEAVING THE SYSTEM
IN A COL AREA. INCREASING VWS AFTER TAU 72 IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A
SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS WIDELY SPREAD IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TRACK DUE TO THE EXPECTED WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS IN THE EXTENT OF THE STR, ALTHOUGH MOST(EXCLUDING JENS)
INDICATE A SLOW POLEWARD TRACK. DUE TO THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

2014OCT31 133200 3.4 988.9 +3.5 53.0 3.4 3.4 3.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -78.47 -66.39 UNIFRM N/A N/A 12.79 -135.00 FCST MTSAT2 19.0

2014OCT31 133200 3.2 995.6 49.0 3.2 3.3 3.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -75.34 -63.57 UNIFRM N/A N/A 12.85 -135.26 FCST MTSAT2 18.8

[xtyphooncyclonex]

CDO is getting more and more symmetrical. It looks impressive and perhaps this would be around 50 kts in terms of satellite presentation.

[euro6208]

the cdo is quite small it seems to be dancing in that massive outflow it has...

[euro6208]

TXPQ24 KNES 311512
TCSWNP

A. 20W (NURI)

B. 31/1432Z

C. 12.9N

D. 134.9E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS WRAPPING UP RAPIDLY WITH DT=3.0 BASED ON 6/10
BANDING. MET=2.5 ON RAPID CURVE AND PAT=3.0. FT IS BASED ON RAPID
INTENSIFICATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SWANSON