WPAC: NURI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Huge hot tower...this should strengthen rapidly...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Yup, according to Wikipedia


"Hot towers are also known to form when a tropical cyclone is about to undergo an explosive intensification."

[euro6208]

20W NURI 141031 1800 13.3N 134.4E WPAC 45 989

up to 45 knots!

[euro6208]

latest warning has nuri peaking very near category 4 strength, major typhoon in 48 hours or sooner...

here we go!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JTWC

20W NURI 141101 0000 13.0N 133.9E WPAC 55 982

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NURI

STS 1420 (NURI)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 1 November 2014

<Analyses at 01/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°05'(13.1°)
E133°55'(133.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 02/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°25'(15.4°)
E131°40'(131.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 03/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°35'(17.6°)
E131°40'(131.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 04/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°35'(19.6°)
E133°55'(133.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
Storm warning area ALL520km(280NM)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Latest JTWC Warning has the peak upped to 120 knots, mid-category 4.

WTPN31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (NURI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 13.0N 133.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 133.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 13.9N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.1N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 16.5N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.9N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 20.7N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 24.0N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 29.5N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 133.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 20W (NURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 758 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Remains 55 knots...

WDPN31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 20W (NURI) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 20W (NURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 358 NM
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSOLIDATING FEEDER BANDS SPIRALING TIGHTER INTO
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS OBSCURED BY A COMPACT
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE MSI LOOP AND A 010443Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS AN AREA WITH MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND EXCELLENT DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TS 20W CONTINUES TO
TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WESTERN ANNEX OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), THE MAIN BODY OF WHICH IS TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 20W WILL TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE STR WEAKENS AND TRACKS TO THE EAST AND A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST APPROACHES. BEYOND TAU 24, TS NURI WILL
TRACK NORTHWARD AS THE RIDGE RECEDES AND THE TROPICAL GOES INTO A
WEAKER STEERING ENVIRONMENT PROVIDED BY A COL REGION. 20W WILL
FOLLOW THE COL REGION IN A NORTHEAST PATTERN AS THE STR BUILDS BACK
IN, NOW EAST OF THE SYSTEM. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO PEAK AT 120 KNOTS BY TAU 72. THE NUMERIC MODEL
GUIDANCE, ALONG WITH ENSEMBLE DATA, IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THERE IS A SLIGHT BIFURCATION IN
THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE EXTENT AND ORIENTATION OF THE STR TO
THE EAST. GFS AND ECMWF ARE THE WESTERN OUTLIERS, WITH THE RIDGE
REBUILDING IN STRONGLY WITH A SLIGHT BROAD BLOCKING PATTERN. THIS
WILL FORCE TS NURI TO TEMPORARILY BACK TO A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK AS THE STR REBUILDS BEFORE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD,
GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE NAVGEM
SOLUTION HAS A DIFFERENT, MORE ZONAL, ORIENTATION OF THE STR,
HAVING THE SYSTEM SIMPLY TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT BEGINS TO BE
ABSORBED IN THE WESTERLIES. BY TAU 96, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION. SINCE MODEL GUIDANCE IS WIDELY SPREAD ON THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH THE
REBUILDING STR, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[mrbagyo]

20W NURI 141101 1200 13.9N 133.5E WPAC 60 978

[xtyphooncyclonex]

TY 1420 (NURI)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 1 November 2014

<Analyses at 01/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N14°00'(14.0°)
E133°25'(133.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 02/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°35'(16.6°)
E132°05'(132.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 03/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°55'(18.9°)
E133°05'(133.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)

<Forecast for 04/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°20'(21.3°)
E135°05'(135.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
Storm warning area ALL540km(290NM)

[euro6208]

on the verge of becoming a typhoon with the latest warning forecast peak of 115 knots category 4! luckily this is recurving...

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 20W (NURI) WARNING NR
07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 20W (NURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 378 NM
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM CONSOLIDATING BASED ON SPIRALING TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS OBSCURED BY A COMPACT CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND
A 011049Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE FORMATIVE STAGES OF A
MICROWAVE EYE. BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND
CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD, THE SYSTEMS
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AS 60 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS AN AREA WITH MODERATE (10-20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TS
20W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), THE MAIN BODY OF
WHICH IS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 20W WILL CONTINUE TAKE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS THE STR WEAKENS AND TRACKS TO THE EAST AND A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST APPROACHES. BEYOND TAU 24, TS
NURI WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AS THE RIDGE RECEDES AND STARTS TO
REALIGN. 20W WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TAU 72 AS THE STR
BUILDS BACK IN. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE
SYSTEM TO PEAK AT 115 KNOTS BY TAU 48 BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN
AGAIN. THE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE, ALONG WITH ENSEMBLE DATA, IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST, LENDING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, MODELS HAVE COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF THE STR. THE ZONAL
RIDGE REBUILDS WITH A SLIGHT BROAD BLOCKING PATTERN THAT FORCES TS
NURI INTO A NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 96 BEFORE RECURVING AGAIN,
NORTH OF THE STR AXIS, SOUTH OF HONSHU, JAPAN. ADDITIONALLY, AS IT
BEGINS TO BE ABSORBED IN THE WESTERLIES BY TAU 96, THE CYCLONE WILL
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT, A LARGE SPREAD IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE COMPLEX
NATURE OF THE STR LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

on the verge of becoming a typhoon with the latest warning forecast peak of 115 knots category 4! luckily this is recurving...

It is already a typhoon.

[euro6208]

PGTW and KNES has just updated their latest dvorak fix and upps to 4.0...typhoon later on today...

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track up to 75kts.

20W NURI 141101 1800 15.0N 133.1E WPAC 75 967

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The eye is beginning to clear out on infrared imagery; with a cloud region temperature of -82C via CIMSS ADT, satellite estimates should skyrocket once that occurs.

[SouthDadeFish]

Looking very, very good. Definitely looks like it's about to explode.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Nuri is well on its way to becoming a super typhoon.

2014NOV01 233000 4.7 970.6 82.2 4.7 5.9 6.9 MW AdjEnd OFF OFF -27.67 -81.92 EYE/P -99 IR 56.8 15.57 -132.71 SPRL MTSAT2 23.1

[cycloneye]

20W NURI 141102 0000 15.5N 132.8E WPAC 95 952

[mrbagyo]

impressive Cold Dark Grey cover.