WPAC: NURI - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#141 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 02, 2014 7:41 pm

absolutely incredible...another 155 knots super typhoon!
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#142 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 02, 2014 7:44 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 20W (NURI) WARNING NR
12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 20W (NURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 573 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM MAINTAINED A HIGHLY
SYMMETRIC AND SHARPLY-OUTLINED 13-NM EYE. THE STY CONTINUES TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS EVIDENCED BY THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE
THAT HAS DEEPENED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE FEEDER BANDS HAVE ALSO WRAPPED
EXTREMELY TIGHT INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, RESULTING IN A
MORE COMPACT AND SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 155 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD; AND FROM AUTOMATED OBJECTIVE DVORAK FIXES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS DIRECTLY UNDER THE RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE
CYCLONE HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ITS OWN MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE THAT, IN
COMBINATION WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
IS PROVIDING AN EXTREMELY EFFICIENT VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION. THIS IS READILY APPARENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
STY 20W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 20W IS FORECAST TO FURTHER INTENSIFY AND PEAK AT A
RECORD-MATCHING 170 KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM WILL CREST THE STR AXIS AND
BEGIN A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE
STEERING STR WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. THIS WILL BE THE OPTIMUM PERIOD FOR INTENSIFICATION:
CONTINUED FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS, VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS), INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH THE INITIAL
EXPOSURE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, AND VWS THAT IS MITIGATED
BY A STORM MOTION IN-PHASE WITH UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. AFTER TAU 12,
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS VWS GREATLY INCREASES AND SSTS
DECREASE. AFTER TAU 36, A MOMENTARY AND SLIGHT POLEWARD DEVIATION
FROM TRACK IS EXPECTED AS THE STEERING STR IS EXPECTED TO RE-BUILD.
BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT
ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO
BE AN INTENSE 100-KNOT SYSTEM WITH TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, STY NURI WILL CONTINUE ITS GRADUAL
DECAY DUE TO THE INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS AS IT ACCELERATES
NORTHEASTWARD AND DEEPER INTO THE COLD BAROCLINIC AIR MASS. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE EXTREMELY INTENSE NATURE OF THE CYCLONE, IT IS EXPECTED TO
RETAIN ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS FOR A LONG PERIOD BEFORE BECOMING
A STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 120. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
LAID WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET KNOWN MODEL TENDENCIES AND THE UNLIKELY WESTWARD
GFDN TRACK SOLUTION.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#143 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 02, 2014 7:48 pm

Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#144 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 02, 2014 8:12 pm

20W NURI 141103 0000 18.5N 132.6E WPAC 155 907

Remains at 155 knots...
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#145 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Nov 02, 2014 8:12 pm

Remains.
20W NURI 141103 0000 18.5N 132.6E WPAC 155 907
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#146 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 02, 2014 10:48 pm

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=alJ13Ho1M3c#t=85[/youtube]
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#147 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 02, 2014 10:52 pm

still forecast to strengthen to 170 knots...recon would have likely found 160-170 knots earlier when it peaked...

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.7N 133.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 170 KT, GUSTS 205 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS

WDPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 20W (NURI) WARNING NR
13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 20W (NURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 549 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM MAINTAINED A HIGHLY SYMMETRIC AND
SHARPLY-OUTLINED 15-NM EYE. THE STY HAS ALSO SUSTAINED A SUPER-DEEP
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE AND FEEDER BANDS THAT ARE WRAPPED
EXTREMELY TIGHT INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 155 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD; AND FROM AUTOMATED
OBJECTIVE DVORAK FIXES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS
CRESTED THE RIDGE AXIS AND IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE HAS ALSO MAINTAINED ITS MESOSCALE
ANTICYCLONE THAT, IN COMBINATION WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, IS PROVIDING EXTREMELY EFFICIENT VENTILATION TO
THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THIS IS READILY APPARENT ON ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. STY 20W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 20W IS FORECAST TO FURTHER INTENSIFY AND PEAK AT A
RECORD-MATCHING 170 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE STEERING STR
WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS WILL
BE THE OPTIMUM PERIOD FOR INTENSIFICATION: CONTINUED FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS, VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), INCREASED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH THE INITIAL EXPOSURE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES, AND VWS THAT IS MITIGATED BY A STORM MOTION IN-PHASE WITH
UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS VWS GREATLY INCREASES AND SSTS DECREASE. AFTER TAU 36, A MOMENTARY
AND SLIGHT POLEWARD DEVIATION FROM TRACK IS EXPECTED AS THE STEERING
STR IS EXPECTED TO RE-BUILD. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL COMMENCE
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. HOWEVER,
THE CYCLONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE AN INTENSE 100-KNOT SYSTEM WITH
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72 LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TRACK.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, STY NURI WILL CONTINUE ITS GRADUAL
DECAY DUE TO THE INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS AS IT ACCELERATES
NORTHEASTWARD AND DEEPER INTO THE COLD BAROCLINIC AIR MASS. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE EXTREMELY INTENSE NATURE OF THE CYCLONE, IT IS EXPECTED TO
RETAIN ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS FOR A LONGER PERIOD BEFORE
BECOMING A STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 120. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS LAID WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY FASTER AND TO THE
RIGHT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET KNOWN MODEL TENDENCIES AND THE UNLIKELY
WESTWARD GFDN TRACK SOLUTION.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#148 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 03, 2014 4:34 am

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 20W (NURI) WARNING NR
14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 20W (NURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 531 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE SYSTEM MAINTAINING ITS HIGHLY
SYMMETRIC 15-NM EYE, THE BASIS FOR THE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. STY 20W HAS ALSO SUSTAINED AN EXTREMELY DEEP
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE AND FEEDER BANDS THAT WRAP TIGHTLY
INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. WHILE SOME DVORAK FINAL
INTENSITIES DURING THE OFF-CYCLE DEPICT THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY
WEAKENING, AN ANALYSIS OF NAVAL OCEANOGRAPHIC OFFICE'S REGIONAL
OCEANOGRAPHIC MODELS DURING THAT SHORT TIME DEPICT A VERY SMALL
POCKET OF COOLER WATER FROM THE SURFACE TO A DEPTH OF 330 FT WHICH
THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE TRACKED OVER. HOWEVER, BASED ON THE
CURRENT POSITION, STY NURI HAS TRACKED INTO HIGHLY FAVORABLE
OCEANOGRAPHIC CONDITIONS AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. AS SUCH,
THE INTENSITY OF 155 KTS IS MAINTAINED BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (10-20
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS BOTH IN-PHASE WITH THE MOTION
OF THE SYSTEM AND OFFSET BY EXTREME VENTILATION DUE TO DUAL POLEWARD
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. STY 20W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 20W IS FORECAST TO FURTHER INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS TO A PEAK OF 165 KNOTS DUE TO THE CONTINUED FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS),
INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH THE INITIAL EXPOSURE INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES, AND VWS THAT CONTINUES TO BE OFFSET BY STORM
MOTION. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT PAST
TAU 24 AS THE STEERING STR WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WANES
AND VWS BEGINS TO OVERPOWER THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. BEYOND TAU 48
EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY AND GRADUALLY TAKE A MORE NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK AS THE STR IS EXPECTED TO RE-BUILD. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE AN INTENSE, TYPHOON
STRENGTH, SYSTEM. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72 LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TRACK.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, STY NURI WILL CONTINUE ITS GRADUAL
DECAY DUE TO THE INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS AS IT ACCELERATES
NORTHEASTWARD AND DEEPER INTO THE COLD BAROCLINIC AIR MASS. BY TAU
96, EXPECT THIS STRONG SYSTEM TO BE FULLY ENVELOPED IN THE BAROCLINC
ZONE AND A STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THESE LATER TAUS AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT AND POSITIONING OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.//
NNNN
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#149 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Nov 03, 2014 7:24 am

Convection cools again by a tad

Image
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#150 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 03, 2014 8:26 am

compared to past typhoons at this strength, nuri's cdo is very small yet very destructive...
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#151 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 03, 2014 8:33 am

damn forecast to deepen to 914 mb post tropical would be among the strongest ever in the last 50 years in the NPAC...another arctic outbreak for the u.s east with more snows and a major cold blast that affected the carolinas...

Image
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#152 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Nov 03, 2014 9:09 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 NOV 2014 Time : 130000 UTC
Lat : 19:54:38 N Lon : 133:41:01 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 925.6mb/129.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 6.7 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : -1.5C Cloud Region Temp : -77.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 155km
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.6 degrees
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#153 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Mon Nov 03, 2014 10:07 am

:eek:

The inner core of Nuri remains very symmetrical and sturdy despite the fact that the cyclone has, based on all available evidence, weakened since yesterday. Not quite sure why JTWC left it at 155kt given T6.5/127kt from SAB and T6.6/130kt from UW-CIMSS ADT.

Image
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#154 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 03, 2014 11:19 am

WDPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 20W (NURI) WARNING NR
15//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 20W (NURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 514 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A HIGHLY
SYMMETRIC 15-NM EYE, WHICH ALIGNS WITH A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. STY 20W CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A VERY GOOD DEEP
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE AND FEEDER BANDS THAT WRAP TIGHTLY
INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INTENSITY OF 155 KTS IS
MAINTAINED BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW,
KNES, AND RJTD. BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION, STY NURI CONTINUES TO
TRACK INTO FAVORABLE OCEANOGRAPHIC CONDITIONS AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES THAT INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (10-20
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS MITIGATED BY BEING IN-PHASE
WITH THE MOTION OF THE SYSTEM AND EXTREME VENTILATION DUE TO DUAL
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. STY 20W IS TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT
IS BEGINNING TO RE-ORIENT ITSELF TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 20W IS FORECAST TO FURTHER INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS TO A PEAK OF 160 KNOTS DUE TO THE CONTINUED FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS),
INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH THE INITIAL EXPOSURE INTO THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES, AND VWS THAT CONTINUES TO BE OFFSET BY STORM
MOTION. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT PAST
TAU 24 AS THE STEERING STR WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, STY NURI WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS
THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT DECREASES AND VWS BEGINS TO OVERPOWER THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. BEYOND TAU 48 EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY AND
GRADUALLY TAKE A MORE NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AROUND THE NEWLY REFORMED
STR AXIS. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
AS IT ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE AN INTENSE, TYPHOON STRENGTH, SYSTEM. DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 LEADING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, STY NURI WILL CONTINUE ITS GRADUAL
DECAY DUE TO THE INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS AS IT ACCELERATES
NORTHEASTWARD AND DEEPER INTO THE COLD BAROCLINIC AIR MASS. BY TAU
96, EXPECT THIS STRONG SYSTEM TO BE FULLY ENVELOPED IN THE BAROCLINC
ZONE AND A STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THESE LATER TAUS AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT AND POSITIONING OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.//
NNNN
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#155 Postby Alyono » Mon Nov 03, 2014 1:57 pm

I can say beyond a shadow of a doubt this is nowhere near 155 kts right now. I just did a Dvorak and got a 6.5, which is exactly what SSD has and is similar to the CIMSS ADT
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#156 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 03, 2014 2:00 pm

Down to 145kts.

20W NURI 141103 1800 20.5N 134.3E WPAC 145 914
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CrazyC83
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#157 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Nov 03, 2014 8:48 pm

Yeah I would guess about 130 kt right now. T6.5 seems about right.

Some models go into insanity territory as an extratropical storm and blow it to near 900mb for a pressure southwest of Alaska this weekend...
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#158 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 03, 2014 8:54 pm

:uarrow: Is 130kts.

20W NURI 141104 0000 21.3N 135.0E WPAC 130 926
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#159 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 03, 2014 11:44 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 20W (NURI) WARNING NR
17//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON 20W (NURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 406 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE,
ON SATELLITE EYE FIXES FROM RJTD AND PGTW. THE INTENSITY OF 130
KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RTJD. THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS AS INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
COUNTERACTS THE POSITIVE IMPACTS OF STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER. THE WEAKENING TREND IS LIKELY ALSO
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE EVIDENT IN
RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY, INCLUDING A 032119Z CORIOLIS
IMAGE. STY 20W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 20W SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS IT ROUNDS THE PERIPHERY OF THE
CURRENT STEERING RIDGE. INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
DECREASING ALONG-TRACK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE
STEADY WEAKENING. AROUND TAU 48, STY 20W WILL ROUND THE STEERING
RIDGE AND ENCOUNTER A BAROCLINIC ZONE AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AND RAPIDLY TRANSITION INTO A VERY STRONG
EXTRATROPICAL LOW AS IT PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MAINLAND JAPAN
BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK DIRECTION, BUT THERE IS LARGER SPREAD IN
TERMS OF TRACK SPEED. JGSM, THE JAPANESE ENSEMBLE, AND GFDN
INDICATE SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
CONSEQUENTLY DELAYED TRANSITION INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN. HOWEVER, TRACK SPEEDS FROM THESE MODELS HAVE INCREASED IN
THE LATEST RUN. THE OTHER CONSENSUS MODELS, INCLUDING GFS AND ECMWF,
INDICATE A FASTER NEAR-TERM TRACK AND EARLIER TRANSITION INTO THE
WESTERLIES. THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE MAJORITY GROUPING OF A
FASTER TRANSITION AND LIES SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE CONSENSUS AT TAU 48
AND TAU 72 TO OFFSET THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST DIRECTION AND LOW, BUT INCREASING,
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST TRACK SPEEDS DUE TO NOTED MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES AND TRENDS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#160 Postby somethingfunny » Tue Nov 04, 2014 2:42 am

:double:

This is gonna have major impacts on the downstream pattern.

Image
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