WPAC: NURI - Post-Tropical

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RL3AO
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#81 Postby RL3AO » Sat Nov 01, 2014 8:46 pm

Convection is very deep. This has T7.5 potential.
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#82 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Nov 01, 2014 8:53 pm

RL3AO wrote:Convection is very deep. This has T7.5 potential.


totally agree.

Trivia: the last time "PAENG" was used by PAGASA was in 2006 and that was Super Typhoon Cimaron which made landfall in Luzon as a Category 5 (hmmm. it's not retired). 2010 was an underwhelming year( we didn't reach "P")
Last edited by mrbagyo on Sat Nov 01, 2014 9:06 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#83 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Nov 01, 2014 8:57 pm

Woah. Check this out.

Image
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#84 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 01, 2014 9:34 pm

0300z JTWC warning peaks at 135kts.

Image
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#85 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Nov 01, 2014 10:46 pm

TXPQ24 KNES 020317
TCSWNP

A. 20W (NURI)

B. 02/0232Z

C. 15.8N

D. 132.8E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/6.5/D3.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS RESULTED
IN A MET OF 5.0 AND A PT OF 5.5. DG EYE IS EMBEDDED IN...AND SURROUNDED
BY...CMG WHICH RESULTS IN A DT OF 7.0 AFTER 0.5 IS ADDED AS AN EYE
ADJUSTMENT. THE AVERAGE DT CALCULATED EACH HOUR FOR THE LAST SIX HOURS
ENDING AT 0232Z WAS 6.5. THIS IS THE BASIS FOR THE FT AND JUSTIFIES
BREAKING ALL CONSTRAINTS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

01/2243Z 15.4N 132.8E SSMIS


...TURK
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#86 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat Nov 01, 2014 11:40 pm

Nuri is likely approaching Category 5 status, with a warm eye surrounded by extremely cold convection.

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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#87 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 02, 2014 12:32 am

Wow at that massive circulation with a small eye.

This looks way stronger than 95 knots.
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#88 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 02, 2014 12:37 am

Raw up to 7.4!
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#89 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Nov 02, 2014 1:34 am

20W NURI 141102 0600 16.2N 132.7E WPAC 120 933

:uarrow: conservative. haha
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#90 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Nov 02, 2014 1:59 am

This should be already or near super typhoon status if this is the Dvorak estimate:

2014NOV02 053200 6.6 930.5 129.6 6.6 6.6 7.3 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF -7.97 -80.10 EYE 13 IR 60.1 16.37 -132.68 COMBO MTSAT2 23.8
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#91 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 02, 2014 2:15 am

mrbagyo wrote:20W NURI 141102 0600 16.2N 132.7E WPAC 120 933

:uarrow: conservative. haha


Likely due to constraints and a blend of dvorak numbers of 6.0 and 6.5. JT should of went with ADT. At least a cat 5 now and still intensifying.
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#92 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Nov 02, 2014 2:17 am

euro6208 wrote:
mrbagyo wrote:20W NURI 141102 0600 16.2N 132.7E WPAC 120 933

:uarrow: conservative. haha


Likely due to constraints and a blend of dvorak numbers of 6.0 and 6.5. JT should of went with ADT. At least a cat 5 now and still intensifying.

Probs 150-170 kts due to intense convection as CDG perfectly surrounds the well-defined symmetrical eye.
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#93 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 02, 2014 2:21 am

Image

Image

The west pacific never fails to impress.
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#94 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Nov 02, 2014 3:55 am

This is how Western Pacific typhoons do it in November. 8-)
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#95 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 02, 2014 7:28 am

truly incredible...

2014NOV02 111400 7.5 903.5 155.0 7.5 7.6 7.8 2.7T/12hr OFF OFF 9.76 -83.42 EYE 15 IR N/A 17.15 -132.52 COMBO MTSAT2 24.7

ADT at 155 knots and raw up to 7.8 ( 164 knots )! :eek:

Eye very warm at +9.8 C and cloud tops -83.4!
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#96 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 02, 2014 7:50 am

12z Best Track up to 130kts.

20W NURI 141102 1200 17.2N 132.5E WPAC 130 926
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#97 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Nov 02, 2014 7:58 am

TY 1420 (NURI)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 2 November 2014

<Analyses at 02/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N17°10'(17.2°)
E132°30'(132.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 910hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL150km(80NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE500km(270NM)
NW330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 03/12 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N19°35'(19.6°)
E133°35'(133.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 910hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area ALL300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 04/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°30'(22.5°)
E136°00'(136.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)

<Forecast for 05/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°25'(25.4°)
E136°55'(136.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
Storm warning area ALL540km(290NM)
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#98 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 02, 2014 8:01 am

eye temperature warmer now +10C and embedded in a perfect circular cdo...
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#99 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Nov 02, 2014 8:15 am

Beautiful.

Image
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Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#100 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 02, 2014 8:49 am

ADT up to 7.6 (158 knots) from 7.5 while RAW remains at 7.8 (164 knots)...

Eye temperature has dramtically warmed from +10C to +13.1C while cloud tops have slightly warmed from -83.2C to -82.7C...
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