EPAC: INVEST 96E

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EPAC: INVEST 96E

#1 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Nov 05, 2014 10:14 pm

A small low pressure system has developed several hundred miles
south of Acapulco, Mexico. Some gradual development of this
disturbance is possible over the next several days while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

SHIPS makes this a hurricane.
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#2 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Wed Nov 05, 2014 11:59 pm

Like the energizer bunny, the 2014 Pacific hurricane season just keeps going and going. The disturbance already has a good amount of spin, and shower and thunderstorm activity has been on the increase over the past few hours. Both the GFS and ECMWF develop this system, and the environment appears conducive for the next few days, so I would not be surprised to see this become 'Winnie'.

Only 3 more units of ACE are needed this season to boost 2014 into the top 5 most active on record. In terms of named storm count, we're 4th; in terms of hurricane count, we're tied with 1990 and 1992 at 1st; in terms of major hurricane count, we're second. Note that this is for the Central and East Pacific basins combined.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#3 Postby jaguarjace » Thu Nov 06, 2014 4:39 am

A low pressure system located several hundred miles south of
Acapulco, Mexico is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms.
This system is gradually becoming better defined, and further
development of this disturbance is possible over the next several
days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

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#4 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Nov 06, 2014 5:18 am

Unbelievable season.
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#5 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Nov 06, 2014 8:06 am

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061141
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST THU NOV 6 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system located several hundred miles south-southwest
of Acapulco, Mexico is producing scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Slow development of this system is possible over the
next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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#6 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Nov 06, 2014 8:11 am

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962014 11/06/14 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 41 51 56 57 55 53 48 45
V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 41 51 56 57 55 53 48 45
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 30 32 37 43 52 61 66 66 61 54
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 15 11 6 5 3 3 1 3 6 14 21 35 48
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 -4 -2 0 -4 -2 -6 -4 -1 2 4 -1
SHEAR DIR 90 108 109 89 144 52 96 155 213 256 237 232 248
SST (C) 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.5 29.1
POT. INT. (KT) 152 155 158 160 161 160 158 154 152 151 150 149 156
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 6
700-500 MB RH 61 62 63 66 68 68 64 57 53 52 56 53 53
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 7 8 9 9 9
850 MB ENV VOR -41 -36 -35 -36 -39 -31 -2 20 39 41 39 4 1
200 MB DIV 19 7 33 44 45 49 52 31 51 48 88 81 65
700-850 TADV -1 -1 -3 -3 -5 -4 -1 0 0 3 8 9 5
LAND (KM) 765 774 782 790 794 804 790 777 761 720 597 406 162
LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.4 10.8 11.2 11.6 12.6 13.5 14.2 14.8 15.5 16.7 18.2 19.6
LONG(DEG W) 101.6 102.7 103.8 104.9 106.1 108.0 109.2 109.9 110.3 110.4 109.9 108.8 107.0
STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 9 6 4 4 5 8 10 11
HEAT CONTENT 1 7 17 11 7 29 30 26 24 23 19 10 39
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#7 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Nov 06, 2014 8:50 am

Neither the parallel GFS or Euro show this.

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962014 11/06/14 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 39 49 58 66 67 66 64 62 57
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 39 49 58 66 67 66 64 62 57
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 33 35 41 49 58 67 71 69 63 56
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 10 6 6 4 1 3 1 2 10 16 29 42 50
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -2 -1 -1 -3 -5 -2 -1 1 2 4 -9
SHEAR DIR 107 114 105 143 105 22 10 154 246 247 234 234 251
SST (C) 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.7 29.5
POT. INT. (KT) 154 158 160 161 161 159 157 154 152 150 149 152 160
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -52.4 -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -52.6 -53.4 -52.7 -53.3
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 7 5
700-500 MB RH 60 61 66 68 69 66 61 58 53 55 58 56 52
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 9 11 12 15 15
850 MB ENV VOR -36 -37 -37 -41 -43 -29 3 31 41 40 18 10 8
200 MB DIV 0 28 40 52 58 59 35 58 35 90 88 108 58
700-850 TADV -1 -3 -3 -5 -5 -2 0 0 0 1 7 8 2
LAND (KM) 785 798 809 804 817 809 781 752 730 653 494 277 62
LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.6 11.0 11.5 11.9 13.0 13.9 14.6 15.1 16.1 17.5 19.0 20.4
LONG(DEG W) 102.5 103.7 104.9 106.0 107.1 108.7 109.6 110.0 110.2 110.1 109.3 107.9 106.3
STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 11 8 5 3 4 6 9 10 10
HEAT CONTENT 6 16 11 7 8 32 27 24 23 22 11 18 32
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#8 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 06, 2014 12:55 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST THU NOV 6 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system located several hundred miles south-southwest
of Acapulco, Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Slow development of this system is possible over the
next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Forecaster Beven
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#9 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Thu Nov 06, 2014 6:54 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PST THU NOV 6 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A small cluster of showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico is associated with a low
pressure system in the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Slow
development of this system is possible over the next several days
while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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#10 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Nov 06, 2014 9:42 pm

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962014 11/07/14 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 24 28 37 49 56 60 60 59 58 56
V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 24 28 37 49 56 60 60 59 58 56
V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 19 19 20 23 28 35 42 47 46 42 38
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 7 4 6 10 10 5 4 4 6 19 27 33 33
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 -4 -4 -3 -7 -4 0 3 9 0 2
SHEAR DIR 93 76 60 59 75 58 69 279 266 239 233 243 241
SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.9
POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 161 160 158 156 152 151 152 151 150 150 152
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 -53.2 -52.7 -53.4 -52.6
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 8
700-500 MB RH 66 68 71 71 71 69 67 65 67 70 72 66 58
MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 9 11 13 15 15
850 MB ENV VOR -35 -46 -51 -56 -52 -35 -2 20 36 34 17 22 38
200 MB DIV 37 29 31 36 41 38 62 52 115 132 141 75 69
700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -3 -2 0 0 -1 0 5 6 3 1
LAND (KM) 877 896 937 954 973 992 1001 1008 973 817 603 409 276
LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.7 11.0 11.4 11.8 12.4 12.9 13.2 13.9 15.3 16.6 17.6 18.2
LONG(DEG W) 105.0 106.4 107.7 108.7 109.6 110.8 111.5 111.9 112.1 111.4 109.9 108.4 107.3
STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 12 10 8 6 3 3 5 8 9 7 6
HEAT CONTENT 13 7 9 25 44 40 31 26 23 23 19 11 18
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#11 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 07, 2014 7:24 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST FRI NOV 7 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure
system located several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico,
has changed little in organization during the past several hours.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional
development of this disturbance over the next several days while it
moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#12 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 07, 2014 12:40 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST FRI NOV 7 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure
system located several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico,
continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development of this disturbance for
about the next three days while it moves generally northwestward at
10 to 15 mph. After that time, upper-level winds are expected to
become unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#13 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 08, 2014 6:44 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST SAT NOV 8 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure
system located several hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico, has changed little in organization during the past several
hours. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development of this disturbance over the weekend while it moves
generally northwestward to northward at 10 to 15 mph. By Monday
evening, however, upper-level winds are forecast to become
unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 08, 2014 1:05 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST SAT NOV 8 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure
system located several hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico, has become less organized since yesterday. There is still
some potential for development of this system over the weekend.
However, upper-level winds are expected to become unfavorable for
development by Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#15 Postby jaguarjace » Sun Nov 09, 2014 12:02 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST SUN NOV 9 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized in association
with a low pressure system located about 500 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental
conditions are expected to gradually become more unfavorable for
tropical cyclone formation while the system moves slowly northward
and then northeastward during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Brennan

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#16 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Nov 09, 2014 7:32 pm

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms have increased near an area of low
pressure located about 500 miles south-southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula. Some development of this low is
possible for about a day until environmental conditions are forecast
to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation while the
system moves slowly northeastward during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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#17 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Nov 10, 2014 1:38 am

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 100555
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PST SUN NOV 9 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system located about 450 miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, or also about 150
miles south-southwest of Socorro Island, is gradually becoming
better defined. Shower and thunderstorm activity has become a
little better organized during the past few hours and some further
development of this low is possible later today while the system
moves slowly north-northeastward to northeastward. However,
environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for
tropical cyclone formation by Monday night or Tuesday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#18 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 10, 2014 12:45 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST MON NOV 10 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Visible satellite imagery indicates that the circulation associated
with an area of low pressure located about 320 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become a
little better defined this morning. While shower and thunderstorm
activity is located mainly east and northeast of the center due to
strong upper-level winds, a tropical depression could form later
today while the system moves northeastward at 10 to 15 mph. Upper-
level winds are expected to become even less favorable for tropical
cyclone formation by tonight and early Tuesday. Regardless of
development, this system could bring rain and gusty winds to
portions of the west coast of mainland Mexico through Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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#19 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Nov 10, 2014 1:17 pm

One last chance then?
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#20 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Nov 10, 2014 2:02 pm

EP, 96, 2014111018, , BEST, 0, 186N, 1112W, 30, 1005, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
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