SIO: ADJALI - Ex-Tropical

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jaguarjace
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SIO: ADJALI - Ex-Tropical

#1 Postby jaguarjace » Thu Nov 13, 2014 8:44 pm

The GFS Model has 95S as the most dominant of the two areas (94S / 95S).
Last edited by jaguarjace on Fri Nov 21, 2014 8:56 am, edited 7 times in total.
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Re: SIO: INVEST 94S

#2 Postby jaguarjace » Fri Nov 14, 2014 2:50 am

94S INVEST 141114 0600 10.8S 79.7E SHEM 20 1007

Image

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.8S 79.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 475 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AND POORLY
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A
RECENT 140554Z TRMM REVEALS INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
STRUCTURE AS THE CONVECTIVE BANDING IS BEGINNING TO FORM. A PARTIAL
140351Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED THE STRONGEST (20 TO 25 KNOTS) WINDS ARE
LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WHILE THE WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE ARE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER (10 TO 15 KNOTS). UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND STRONG OMNI-DIRECTIONAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.
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#3 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Nov 14, 2014 9:11 am

Both parallel and non-parallel MU develop this.
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Re: SIO: INVEST 95S

#4 Postby jaguarjace » Sat Nov 15, 2014 1:31 am

95S INVEST 141115 0600 6.3S 66.2E SHEM 25 1007

Image

ABIO10 PGTW 151030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/151030Z-151800ZNOV2014//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1S
76.3E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.7S 66.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 385 NM WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 150557Z TRMM
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE ILL-
DEFINED LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: SIO: INVEST 95S

#5 Postby jaguarjace » Sun Nov 16, 2014 2:06 am

95S INVEST 141116 0600 8.1S 66.4E SHEM 20 1007

Image

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.4S 67.2E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.1S 66.8E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM WEST OF DIEGO
GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
FORMATIVE BANDS HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A RAGGED, ALBEIT MORE
DEFINED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ADDITIONALLY, THE
OVERALL CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AS INDICATED BY COOLING TOPS. THE
LLCC IS ALSO APPARENT ON A 152127Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN THE VICINITY OF A
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) SOUTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE VWS IS OFFSET BY GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. NUMERIC MODELS
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM WITHIN 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. IN VIEW OF THE IMPROVED
WRAP AND IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Re: SIO: INVEST 95S

#6 Postby jaguarjace » Sun Nov 16, 2014 3:18 am

Tropical Disturbance 01
Image
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Re: SIO: Tropical Depression 1 (INVEST 95S)

#7 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Nov 16, 2014 10:44 am

WTXS21 PGTW 161330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.7S 66.2E TO 11.9S 68.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 161200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.4S 66.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.1S
66.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4S 66.6E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM WEST OF
DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
FORMATIVE BANDS HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A MORE DEFINED, LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), HOWEVER, THE OVERALL CONVECTION HAS
WEAKENED AS INDICATED BY WARMING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A
161008 AMSU-B MICROWAVE SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW WHICH OFFSETS MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE LEVEL WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. DUE TO THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
171330Z.//
NNNN
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Re: SIO: ADJALI - Tropical Cyclone

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 16, 2014 2:47 pm

WTXS31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ADJALI) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ADJALI) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 8.9S 66.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.9S 66.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 9.7S 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 11.1S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 12.3S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 13.5S 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 14.8S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.1S 65.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 17.4S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 9.1S 66.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ADJALI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 361 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDS HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A MORE
DEFINED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ALSO, THE OVERALL CONVECTION
HAS DEEPENED AS INDICATED BY COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE ON A
161635Z METOP-B PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND FMEE AND REFLECT THE RAPID CONSOLIDATION OF
THE CYCLONE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) WHICH IS MITIGATED BY THE STORMS MOTION THAT IS IN-PHASE WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS AN IMPROVED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT VENTILATION TO THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TC ADJALI IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SHALLOW NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THIS TRACK UNTIL A REFLECTION
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, CURRENTLY ANCHORED NEAR MADAGASCAR, EXTENDS
WESTWARD AND DEFLECTS THE CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS LA REUNION
AFTER TAU 48. THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST AND PROMOTE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 60 KNOTS
AROUND TAU 36-48. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES CONCURRENT WITH THE CHANGE IN STEERING WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE LIMITED NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN A WIDE
SPREAD BUT GENERALLY SUPPORTS THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH
IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 09 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
170900Z AND 172100Z.//

Image
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Re: SIO: ADJALI - Moderate Tropical Storm (TC 01S)

#9 Postby jaguarjace » Sun Nov 16, 2014 7:17 pm

ZCZC 987
WTIO30 FMEE 161836
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/1/20142015
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ADJALI)
2.A POSITION 2014/11/16 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.8 S / 66.7 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 70 SW: 90 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/11/17 06 UTC: 9.9 S / 67.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2014/11/17 18 UTC: 11.1 S / 67.5 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2014/11/18 06 UTC: 12.2 S / 67.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2014/11/18 18 UTC: 13.3 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2014/11/19 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 67.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2014/11/19 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 66.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/11/20 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 63.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2014/11/21 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 59.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0-
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVE THE LAST HOURS WITH CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION ORGAN
IZED IN CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CENTRE (TEMPORARY HOT SPOT).
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING: WET ENVIRONMENT, GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE MONSO
ON SIDE (AND IMPROVING ON THE "WEAK" SOUTH-EAST QUADRANT), GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A LOW S
HEAR NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE
OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL MID LEVEL RIDGE. ON THIS TRACK, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GOOD OR NEAR
LY EXCELLENT THROUGH TUESDAY.
BEYOND THAT TIME, A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTHERLY THEN NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR ALONG WITH LOW
ER OCEANIC HEAT CONTAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
NNNN

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#10 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Nov 16, 2014 8:02 pm

WTIO30 FMEE 170049
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/1/20142015
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ADJALI)
2.A POSITION 2014/11/17 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.1 S / 66.7 E
(NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : UNDETERMINED
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 90 SW: 110 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/11/17 12 UTC: 10.0 S / 67.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2014/11/18 00 UTC: 11.1 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2014/11/18 12 UTC: 12.1 S / 68.2 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2014/11/19 00 UTC: 13.4 S / 68.3 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2014/11/19 12 UTC: 14.6 S / 67.6 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2014/11/20 00 UTC: 15.0 S / 66.9 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/11/21 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 65.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2014/11/22 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 61.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5-
RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVE THE LAST HOURS WITH
CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION ORGANIZED IN CURVED BAND WRAPPING
AROUND THE IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CENTRE (TEMPORARY HOT SPOT). ON AMSR2
DATA OF 20H33, CLOSE RING IN BOTH 37 AND 85GHZ.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING: WET ENVIRONMENT, GOOD LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE MONSOON SIDE (AND IMPROVING ON THE "WEAK"
SOUTH-EAST QUADRANT), GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A LOW SHEAR
NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL MID
LEVEL RIDGE. ON THIS TRACK, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GOOD OR
NEARLY EXCELLENT MONDAY, THEN ON TUESDAY THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
UNDERGO A UPPER LEVEL NORTH TO NORTH-WESTERLY CONSTRAINT.
BEYOND THAT TIME, A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTHERLY THEN
NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR ALONG WITH LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTAIN SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.=
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Re: SIO: ADJALI - Severe Tropical Storm

#11 Postby jaguarjace » Mon Nov 17, 2014 2:23 am

ZCZC 470
WTIO30 FMEE 170627
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/1/20142015
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ADJALI)
2.A POSITION 2014/11/17 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.2 S / 67.2 E
(NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/11/17 18 UTC: 10.1 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2014/11/18 06 UTC: 11.2 S / 68.3 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2014/11/18 18 UTC: 12.0 S / 68.4 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2014/11/19 06 UTC: 12.7 S / 68.3 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2014/11/19 18 UTC: 13.3 S / 68.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2014/11/20 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 67.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/11/21 06 UTC: 15.8 S / 64.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2014/11/22 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 60.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.0-
ADJALI IS A SMALL SYSTEM. THE INTENSIFICATION SEEMS TO BE LESS RAPID FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS. DVORAK
ESTIMATION AT 4.0- IS CONSISTENT WITH KNES (4.0), PGTW (3.5) AND ADT (3.5-).
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINS GOOD: WET ENVIRONMENT WITHIN LOW AND MID TROPOSPHERIC LAYERS AND
GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE VERTICAL WIND-SHEAR IS WEAK NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THE UPP
ER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD POLEWARD.
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ON THE SOUTHW
ESTERN EDGE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL MID LEVEL RIDGE. ON THIS TRACK, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMA
INS GOOD OR NEARLY EXCELLENT TODAY.
TUESDAY, ADJALI SHOULD DECELERATE ON A SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENC
E OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES REBUILDING IN THE SOUTH-WEST. THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY
SHOULD OCCUR DURING THIS DAY.
TUESDAY MORNING, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DETERIORATE WITH COOLER SST, DR
Y AIR WITHIN MID TROPOSPHERIC LAYERS AND A STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY CONSTRAINT.
FROM WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ADOPT A SOUTHWESTWARD THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK ON THE NORTH
ERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.
NNNN

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#12 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Nov 17, 2014 9:08 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 NOV 2014 Time : 133000 UTC
Lat : 9:54:28 S Lon : 67:46:44 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 995.5mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.4 3.4

Center Temp : -58.3C Cloud Region Temp : -61.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 67km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : MET7
Satellite Viewing Angle : 17.1 degrees
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#13 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Nov 17, 2014 9:09 am

TXXS24 KNES 171146
TCSSIO

A. 01S (ADJALI)

B. 17/1130Z

C. 9.6S

D. 67.8E

E. THREE/MET-7

F. T3.5/4.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS .8 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 3.5.
MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER
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Re: SIO: ADJALI - Severe Tropical Storm

#14 Postby jaguarjace » Tue Nov 18, 2014 7:31 am

ZCZC 499
WTIO30 FMEE 180650
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/1/20142015
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ADJALI)
2.A POSITION 2014/11/18 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 35 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.9 S / 70.0 E
(TEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :20 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 80 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 0 SW: 40 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/11/18 18 UTC: 12.0 S / 70.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2014/11/19 06 UTC: 12.8 S / 70.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2014/11/19 18 UTC: 13.5 S / 70.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2014/11/20 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 69.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2014/11/20 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 67.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2014/11/21 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 65.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/11/22 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 60.9 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
120H: 2014/11/23 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 56.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0, CI=3.5
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS, THE ANIMATED SATELLITE PICTURES DEPICT A WARMER AND SMALLER CDO.
THE LLCC IS DIFFICULT TO LOCALIZE WITH A GOOD ACCURACY.
DVORAK ESTIMATES DEPICT SOME SPREAD AND RANGE FROM 3.5 (50 KT - 10 MIN WINDS - PGTW AND FMEE) TO 4
.5 (70 KT - 10 MIN WINDS - SAB) ... ON THE OTHER HAND (OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES), SATCON AT 2106Z IS AT
57 KT (10 MIN WINDS). A BLEND OF THIS ESTIMATES GIVES A VMAX AT 55 KT (STRONGER THAN THE FMEE DVO
RAK ESTIMATE) IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ONGOING IMPROVEMENT SEEN ON MW IMAGERY (RE-BULDING OF THE INNE
R-CORE SEEN ON THE 2219Z SSMI). CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF 2219Z MW FIX.
ADJALI IS NOW TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARDS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL MID LEVEL RI
DGE. THE SYSTEM IS NOW CLOSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WITH A LESS THAN 10KT, NORTHERLY UPPER LEVE
L WINDSHEAR (CIMSS) AND GOOD UPPER POLEWARD UPPER DIVERGENCE. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE LIK
ELY TO REMAIN FAVORABLE TODAY BEFORE THE INCREASING OF THE NORTHERLY WINDSHEAR TONIGHT. THIS FOREC
AST INTENSITY REMAINS A TOUGH ONE AND THE FORECASTED INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED ACCORDING TO THE R
ECENT EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.
IN THE NIGHT FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE DECREASING STEERING FLOW, ADJALI SHOULD SLOW DOWN
TOWARDS SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE. COOLER SST, DRY AIR WITHI
N MID TROPOSPHERIC LAYERS, AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY CONSTRAINT AND A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGE
NCE SHOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
FROM WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ADOPT A SOUTHWESTWARD THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK ON THE NORTH
ERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THERE IS NOW A FAIRLY GOOD CONS
ENSUS AT LONG RANGE TO BRING THE REMNANT LOW NORTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES ARCHIPELAGO AT THE END OF T
HE WEEK.
NNNN

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Re: SIO: ADJALI - Moderate Tropical Storm

#15 Postby jaguarjace » Wed Nov 19, 2014 5:11 am

ZCZC 453
WTIO30 FMEE 190629
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/1/20142015
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ADJALI)
2.A POSITION 2014/11/19 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5 S / 70.7 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/W 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/11/19 18 UTC: 13.6 S / 70.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2014/11/20 06 UTC: 14.4 S / 69.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2014/11/20 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 67.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
48H: 2014/11/21 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 64.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
60H: 2014/11/21 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 62.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
72H: 2014/11/22 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 60.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, REMNANT LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/11/23 06 UTC: 15.3 S / 56.5 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, REMNANT LOW
120H: 2014/11/24 06 UTC: 14.4 S / 53.0 E, MAX WIND=020 KT,
DISSIPATING
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, CONFIRM THE SHEARING GOING ON
(AS ON WINDSAT 0122Z DATA). LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION NORTH OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. THE CENTRE IS LOCATED UNDER THE EDGE OF THE CONVECTION,
BUT MAY BECOME RAPIDLY APPARENT, THE EFFECT OF THE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AS THE SYSTEME SLOW DOWN.
ADJALI IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD ON THE SOUTH-WESTERN EDGE OF
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL MID LEVEL RIDGE. FOR THE NEXT HOURS, WITH THE
DECREASING STEERING FLOW, ADJALI SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY ENOUGH ON A
SOUTHWARD TRACK. DURING THE DAY, IT IS EXPECTED TO BEND
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE.
ON THIS TRACK, ADJALI SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUFFER A
NORTH-NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. IN VIEW OF ITS SMALL SIZE
AND DEGRADATING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (SST AT 26/27 DEGREES, DRY
AIR WITHIN MID-LAYERS AND WEAKENING DIVERGENCE), ADJALI IS EXPECTED
TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN.
FROM THIS EVENING, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARD THEN
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL LOW LEVELS
HIGH PRESSURES AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSIT NORTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES ARCHIPELAGO AT THE END OF THE WEEK.=
NNNN

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Re: SIO: ADJALI - Ex-Tropical

#16 Postby jaguarjace » Wed Nov 19, 2014 9:41 pm

ZCZC 499
WTIO30 FMEE 191847
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/1/20142015
1.A FILLING UP 1 (EX-ADJALI)
2.A POSITION 2014/11/19 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.3 S / 70.0 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL
ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/11/20 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 69.2 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
24H: 2014/11/20 18 UTC: 15.0 S / 67.1 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
36H: 2014/11/21 06 UTC: 15.3 S / 64.5 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, REMNANT LOW
48H: 2014/11/21 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 62.2 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, REMNANT LOW
60H: 2014/11/22 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 60.3 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, REMNANT LOW
72H: 2014/11/22 18 UTC: 14.6 S / 58.5 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, REMNANT LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED VERY RAPIDLY AS IT
IS SHOWN BY THE PARTIAL ASCAT DATA AT 1719Z WITH MAX WINDS OF 25KT
NEAR THE CENTER.
THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS TOTALLY COLLAPSED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER NORTH-WESTERLY WINDS, AND THE MOVEMENT OF THE RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL LOW LEVELS HIGH PRESSURES.
ON THIS TRACK,THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
FOR THE NEXT DAYS, AND ALL THE AVALAIBLE NWP MODELS FORECAST THE
WEAKENING OF THE RESIDUAL SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO FILL UP ON A
WESTWARD PATH ON FRIDAY, AND WEST-NORTH-WESTWARD FROM SATURDAY.
THE REMNANT LOW IS LIKELY TO TRANSIT NORTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES
ARCHIPELAGO ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.=
NNNN
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Re: SIO: ADJALI - Ex-Tropical

#17 Postby jaguarjace » Fri Nov 21, 2014 8:54 am

Remnants of Adjali.
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Re: SIO: ADJALI - Ex-Tropical

#18 Postby jaguarjace » Mon Nov 24, 2014 5:23 am

01S ADJALI 141124 0600 12.7S 51.2E SHEM 20 1007
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