SIO: Tropical Depression 2 (TC 02S)

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
jaguarjace
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 942
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:38 am
Location: Perth, Australia

SIO: Tropical Depression 2 (TC 02S)

#1 Postby jaguarjace » Fri Nov 21, 2014 8:48 am

97S INVEST 141121 1200 6.0S 88.3E SHEM 15 1010
Image
Last edited by jaguarjace on Fri Nov 28, 2014 6:51 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer: Any statements I make are only my opinion. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Current Storm Floaters are available here | Past Storm Floaters are available here

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 13099
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: SIO: INVEST 97S

#2 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 23, 2014 4:11 am

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.9S 82.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 590 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING AND DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
A 221409Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FORMATIVE BANDING FEATURES
ALONG THE ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A BROAD AREA OF TURNING. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MIXED ENVIRONMENT AS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS OF HIGH (20 TO 30
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHILE VWS IS CONSIDERABLY LOWER AT
ONLY 05 TO 10 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TO THE
SOUTHWEST ALTHOUGH AT VARYING TIME FRAMES. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
jaguarjace
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 942
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:38 am
Location: Perth, Australia

Re: SIO: INVEST 97S

#3 Postby jaguarjace » Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:43 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.8S 72.4E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9S 70.3E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF
DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A LARGE
AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED WEST OF THE CENTER. A
250414Z METOP-B 89 GHZ DEPICTS A DEFINED LLCC WITH FORMATIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 250415Z ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS A SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH NUMEROUS 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS, EXCEPT OVER
THE EASTERN QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (30 TO 50 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OFFSET BY VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
Image
Image
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer: Any statements I make are only my opinion. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Current Storm Floaters are available here | Past Storm Floaters are available here

User avatar
jaguarjace
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 942
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:38 am
Location: Perth, Australia

Re: SIO: Tropical Depression 2 (INVEST 97S)

#4 Postby jaguarjace » Wed Nov 26, 2014 6:42 am

ZCZC 193
WTIO30 FMEE 260636
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/2/20142015
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2
2.A POSITION 2014/11/26 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.1 S / 67.8 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL
EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/2.0/S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 330 NW: 300
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/11/26 18 UTC: 12.8 S / 66.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2014/11/27 06 UTC: 13.6 S / 65.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2014/11/27 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 63.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2014/11/28 06 UTC: 15.3 S / 62.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2014/11/28 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 60.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2014/11/29 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 60.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/11/30 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 58.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
120H: 2014/12/01 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 57.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=1.5+ AND CI =2.0
THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS CLEARLY FLUCTUATING AND SHIFTED WEST OF
THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE DUE TO EFFECT OF THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND-SHEAR.THE WIND STRUCTURE IS QUITE ATYPICAL, LIKE A MONSOON
DEPRESSION STRUCTURE, WITH AN AREA OF STRONG WINDS RATHER FAR AWAY
FROM THE CENTRE SURROUNDING A BROAD AREA OF LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE
CENTRE. 0442Z ASCAT SWATH CONFIRMS THIS PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW/MID LEVELS
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXISTING IN ITS SOUTH AND SHOULD TRACK ON THE
NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. THE
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL THIS TERM.
AFTER THAT, THE DIFFERENT MODELS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE SHOW A HIGH
SPREAD FOR THE TRACK. THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE
MEAN OF THE MODELS. CONSEQUENTLY, ON AND AFTER SATURDAY, THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE SOUTHWARD WITHIN A WEAKNESS ASSOCIATED TO A
MID LATITUDES TROUGH PASSING SOUTHWARD. IT SHOULD PASS EAST OF
MAURITIUS SUNDAY EVENING.
AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO CONSISTS TO MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM ON A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK NORTH OF MASCARENES. SO, THERE IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK AT LONG RANGE.
ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK, THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH-EASTERLY SHEARED AT LEAST UNTIL THURSDAY BEFORE A TEMPORARILY
RELAX OF THIS CONSTRAINT ON THURSDAY NIGHT (UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS). MOST OF THE NWP GUIDANCES ARE NOT ENTHUSIASTIC TO DEEPEN
THIS LOW ... LIKELY DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE WIND FIELDS AND
THE RELATIVE WEAKNESS OF THE CIRCULATION. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FRIDAY.=
NNNN
Image
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer: Any statements I make are only my opinion. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Current Storm Floaters are available here | Past Storm Floaters are available here

User avatar
jaguarjace
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 942
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:38 am
Location: Perth, Australia

Re: SIO: Tropical Depression 2 (INVEST 97S)

#5 Postby jaguarjace » Fri Nov 28, 2014 8:26 am

ZCZC 895
WTIO30 FMEE 280655
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/2/20142015
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2
2.A POSITION 2014/11/28 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 61.9 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL
NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :74 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 220 SW: 280 NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/11/28 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 61.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2014/11/29 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 60.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2014/11/29 18 UTC: 18.4 S / 59.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2014/11/30 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 59.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2014/11/30 18 UTC: 21.6 S / 59.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2014/12/01 06 UTC: 23.1 S / 59.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/12/02 06 UTC: 27.3 S / 59.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T = CI = 2.5-
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS, THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOP WEST OF
THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE DUE TO EFFECT OF A THE WEAKENINGOF
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND-SHEAR ( INF 20 KT ANALYSED BY CIMSS
AT 06Z). THE MICRO-WAVES DATA OF 03H40 AND 04H56Z SHOW AN IMPROVING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, ALSO VISIBLE ON ASCAT DATA OF 05H42Z.
THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW/MID LEVELS
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXISTING IN ITS SOUTH-EAST AND SHOULD TRACK ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE UNTIL SATURDAY ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARD TRACK.
FROM SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE SOUTHWARD WITHIN A
WEAKNESS ASSOCIATED TO A MID-LATITUDES TROUGH PASSING SOUTHWARD.
ON THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK, THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME TEMPORALLY MFAVOURABLE TO LIGHT INTENSIFICATION, THANKS TO THE
RELAX OF THIS CONSTRAINT, AND UNDER THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE ON
SATURDAY. DURING THE SAME TIME, THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL BECOME POOR
EQUATORWARD AND SST WILL DECREASE, SO THE INTENSIFICATION WILL REMAIN
LIMITATED. ON SUNDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE AGAIN WITH STRENGTHENING WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, AND
SST CONTINUING TO DECREASE.=
NNNN
Image
Image
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer: Any statements I make are only my opinion. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Current Storm Floaters are available here | Past Storm Floaters are available here


Return to “2014”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests