WPAC: SINLAKU - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: TWENTYONE - Tropical Depression

#21 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 26, 2014 3:15 pm

21:00 UTC warning.

Image
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#22 Postby Alyono » Wed Nov 26, 2014 4:31 pm

system has weakened since it peaked

JT needs to look at ALL data (as does JMA) when making an intensity estimate. The radar was very conclusive earlier. There was a 3/4 closed eyewall. That does not happen with depressions. Sometimes, Dvorak numbers need to be ignored as they are merely estimates and not absolutes
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Re: WPAC: TWENTYONE - Tropical Depression

#23 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 26, 2014 4:49 pm

Remains a depression...

WDPN31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 21W (TWENTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
377 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEFINED TIGHTLY CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) THAT HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE. A 261737Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS THE CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED DUE TO THE LAND
INTERACTION ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION HAS REMAINED INTACT.
THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION OF THE SYSTEM IS BASED UPON THE
MICROWAVE PASS ALONG WITH THE EIR LOOP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS WHICH IS HEDGED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM 25 TO 30
KNOTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH LOW (05 TO 10
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. TD 21W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 21W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DOMINANT STR, WHICH IS ORIENTED EAST-WEST.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT OPENS DISTANCE FROM THE
PHILIPPINE ISLANDS WHILE TRACKING ACROSS WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE SULU SEA AND THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND MAINTAINING
GOOD OUTFLOW.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 21W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
ACROSS THE EASTERN COAST OF VIETNAM AND WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS IT
TRACKS INLAND. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE TIGHT GROUPING OF NUMERIC GUIDANCE AND
SOLID STEERING MECHANISM.//
NNNN
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#24 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Wed Nov 26, 2014 9:00 pm

It has been raining for about 10 hours straight. Classes are suspended in elementary and highschool.
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#25 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Wed Nov 26, 2014 9:27 pm

The center is actually about 30 nm to the SSW of the eye-like feature.
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#26 Postby Alyono » Thu Nov 27, 2014 12:05 am

ASCAT has 40 kt winds. Confirmed a TS

As I said before, it is essential to look at the data before looking at Dvorak. Dvorak is supposed to be the last line of estimate in the absence of data. Too often, we see that is the primary source
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#27 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Nov 27, 2014 12:57 am

This should be Sinlaku, just not yet upgraded. :roll:
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#28 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Nov 27, 2014 1:14 am

Dvorak at 2.5, tropical storm
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Re: WPAC: 21W - Tropical Depression

#29 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 27, 2014 2:15 am

unclassifed tropical storm at landfall...
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Re: WPAC: 21W - Tropical Depression

#30 Postby ManilaTC » Thu Nov 27, 2014 2:30 am

No upgrade for this one with the JMA.

** WTPQ20 RJTD 270600 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270600UTC 09.7N 121.4E FAIR
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 280600UTC 11.4N 116.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
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Re: WPAC: 21W - Tropical Depression

#31 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 27, 2014 4:06 am

Remains a depression but expected to strengthen into a tropical storm...

WDPN31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 21W (TWENTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
278 NM SOUTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS WEAKENED DEEP CONVECTION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE
PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND PGTW
SATELLITE FIX WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND
CURRENT STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 21W IS LOCATED IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TD 21W
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 21W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DOMINANT STR. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ALLOWING TD 21W TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS INTO THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 21W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
ACROSS THE EASTERN COAST OF VIETNAM AND WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS IT
TRACKS INLAND. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LEADING
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: 21W - Tropical Depression

#32 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 27, 2014 7:35 am

12z Best Track:

21W TWENTYONE 141127 1200 10.3N 120.5E WPAC 30 1000
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Re: WPAC: 21W - Tropical Depression

#33 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 27, 2014 8:26 am

JMA stays at TD status at 12z warning.

TD
Issued at 13:10 UTC, 27 November 2014
<Analyses at 27/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N10°00'(10.0°)
E120°30'(120.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 28/00 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N10°40'(10.7°)
E117°35'(117.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)
Radius of probability circle 150km(80NM)

<Forecast for 28/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°25'(11.4°)
E115°10'(115.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)
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Re: WPAC: 21W - Tropical Depression

#34 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 27, 2014 8:54 am

Image

50 knots TS into Vietnam...

WDPN31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE)
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 21W (TWENTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
260 NM SOUTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT WEAKENED DEEP CONVECTION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
ACROSS THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. A 271130Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING LOOSELY WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION, PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND SSMIS IMAGE
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND CURRENT STRUCTURE.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 21W IS NOW LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW
TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY EXCELLENT
POLEWAR OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TD 21W
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 21W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE STR. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING
TD 21W TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ACROSS THE EASTERN COAST OF VIETNAM
AND WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS INLAND. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LEADING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: 21W - Tropical Depression

#35 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 27, 2014 9:11 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 NOV 2014 Time : 133000 UTC
Lat : 10:23:59 N Lon : 120:12:24 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1007.3mb/ 35.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.5 2.5

Center Temp : -37.7C Cloud Region Temp : -57.6C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.54 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT1
Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.0 degrees
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Re:

#36 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 27, 2014 9:29 am

Alyono wrote:I can say to a virtual certainty that this is a TS and not a weak TS either. Radar shows a well developed eyewall


Kinda late to this thread but can you show us this radar of a well developed eyewall? Interesting...
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Re: WPAC: SINLAKU - Tropical Storm

#37 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 27, 2014 8:41 pm

JMA upgrades to TS SINLAKU.

TS 1421 (SINLAKU)
Issued at 01:10 UTC, 28 November 2014
<Analyses at 28/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N10°40'(10.7°)
E117°20'(117.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 28/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°25'(11.4°)
E114°40'(114.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 29/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°05'(12.1°)
E112°35'(112.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)

<Forecast for 30/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°00'(13.0°)
E109°00'(109.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 01/00 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N13°10'(13.2°)
E105°05'(105.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
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#38 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Nov 27, 2014 8:42 pm

Same with the JTWC.

21W TWENTYONE 141128 0000 10.9N 117.3E WPAC 35 996
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Re: Re:

#39 Postby Alyono » Thu Nov 27, 2014 8:56 pm

euro6208 wrote:
Alyono wrote:I can say to a virtual certainty that this is a TS and not a weak TS either. Radar shows a well developed eyewall


Kinda late to this thread but can you show us this radar of a well developed eyewall? Interesting...


the radar was yesterday at Cebu
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#40 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Nov 27, 2014 9:01 pm

WTPN31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 008
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 10.9N 117.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9N 117.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 11.7N 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 12.5N 112.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 13.1N 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 13.6N 108.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 13.9N 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 11.1N 116.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 21W (TWENTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 280000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z
AND 290300Z.//
NNNN
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