WPAC: SINLAKU - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: SINLAKU - Tropical Storm

#41 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 27, 2014 10:33 pm

Tropical Storm Sinlaku...

WDPN31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 21W (TWENTYONE) WARNING
NR 08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (TWENTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO CONSOLIDATE
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKED FURTHER OUT TO SEA WHILE CONVECTIVE BANDING
HAS INCREASED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. A RECENT 280009Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED DESPITE AN OVERALL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE. LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE CURRENT POSITION DUE TO THE
POOR DEFINITION OF THE LLCC AS SEEN IN THE MSI LOOP AND THE
MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 35 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND THE
INCREASE IN STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 21W REMAINS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. TS 21W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 21W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WHICH
WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS INTO THE
MORE OPEN WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ACROSS THE COAST OF VIETNAM AND WILL
RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS INLAND. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SINLAKU - Tropical Storm

#42 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 27, 2014 11:40 pm

Image

Organizing...
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#43 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Nov 28, 2014 12:50 am

TS 1421 (SINLAKU)
Issued at 03:45 UTC, 28 November 2014

<Analyses at 28/03 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N11°05'(11.1°)
E116°50'(116.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 28/15 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°50'(11.8°)
E114°05'(114.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 29/03 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°25'(12.4°)
E111°55'(111.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)

<Forecast for 30/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°00'(13.0°)
E109°00'(109.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 01/00 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N13°10'(13.2°)
E105°05'(105.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
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#44 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Nov 28, 2014 3:56 am

TS 1421 (SINLAKU)
Issued at 06:50 UTC, 28 November 2014

<Analyses at 28/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N11°20'(11.3°)
E116°00'(116.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)

WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 11.3N 115.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3N 115.8E
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#45 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Nov 28, 2014 4:07 am

Sustained winds of 45 km/h with wind gusts of 62.8 km/h measured in Cebu City, which is about 50 km north of the center of circulation at 5:40 AM, November 27th.

http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=ICEBUCEB5#history/tdata/s20141127/e20141127/mdaily

I guess that would mean 45-55 knots over the eyewall, due to sufficient organization and high reported winds.
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#46 Postby Alyono » Fri Nov 28, 2014 6:11 am

that ASCAT does not show a closed circulation
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Re: WPAC: SINLAKU - Tropical Storm

#47 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 28, 2014 6:52 am

Latest warning has this making landfall close to typhoon strength.

WDPN31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 21W (SINLAKU) WARNING
NR 09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (SINLAKU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 537 NM
EAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TS 21W CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE
AS IT TRACKS OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS). A 280212Z METOP-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. A 280123Z ASCAT PASS PARTIALLY SHOWS 35 TO 40 KNOT
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE; THEREFORE, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HEDGED HIGHER THAN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE
SAME VALUE OF 35 KNOTS FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 21W REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT DUAL OUTFLOW,
AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TS 21W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ANCHORED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 21W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING
THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE SCS. BY TAU
36, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO THE EASTERN COAST
OF VIETNAM AND WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INLAND.
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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#48 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Nov 28, 2014 7:50 am

21W SINLAKU 141128 1200 11.8N 114.4E WPAC 45 989
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Re: WPAC: SINLAKU - Tropical Storm

#49 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 28, 2014 10:36 am

WDPN31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 21W (SINLAKU) WARNING
NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (SINLAKU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 457 NM
EAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSOLIDATION WITH SPIRAL
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
280950Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND SSMIS IMAGE
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 IS BASED ON
MATCHING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TS SINLAKU REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT DUAL
OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TS 21W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) ANCHORED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS SINLAKU WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING
THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO THE
EASTERN COAST OF VIETNAM AND WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS
FURTHER INLAND. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SINLAKU - Tropical Storm

#50 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 28, 2014 3:14 pm

21:00 UTC warning.

Image
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Re: WPAC: SINLAKU - Tropical Storm

#51 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 28, 2014 8:02 pm

21W SINLAKU 141129 0000 12.8N 111.7E WPAC 55 982
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Re: WPAC: SINLAKU - Tropical Storm

#52 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 28, 2014 8:07 pm

Very close to becoming our 11th typhoon of the season...
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#53 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Nov 28, 2014 8:10 pm

21W SINLAKU 141129 0000 12.8N 111.7E WPAC 55 982
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Re: WPAC: SINLAKU - Tropical Storm

#54 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 28, 2014 9:05 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: SINLAKU - Tropical Storm

#55 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 28, 2014 9:28 pm

Image

Typhoon at landfall...

WDPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 21W (SINLAKU) WARNING
NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (SINLAKU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD CONSOLIDATION WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THE EIR ANIMATION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND AN EARLIER. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS SINLAKU REMAINS IN A HIGHLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TS SINLAKU IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS SINLAKU WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE ELONGATED STR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER INTENSIFY. HOWEVER, BEYOND TAU 12,
THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR QUI NHON, VIETNAM THEN RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS OVER THE ANNAMESE MOUNTAINS. ALL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT, GIVING A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK, POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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#56 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Nov 29, 2014 2:01 am

^Alyono was referring to the ASCAT when Sinlaku was over the Southern Visayas.
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#57 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Nov 29, 2014 8:40 am

STS 1421 (SINLAKU)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 29 November 2014

<Analyses at 29/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°10'(13.2°)
E109°50'(109.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL190km(100NM)

<Forecast for 30/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°40'(13.7°)
E107°50'(107.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 30/12 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N14°05'(14.1°)
E105°05'(105.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
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Re: WPAC: SINLAKU - Tropical Storm

#58 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 29, 2014 10:05 am

WDPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 21W (SINLAKU) WARNING
NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (SINLAKU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 199 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A 290907Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT WITH TIGHTLY-WRAPPED
SHALLOW BANDING ELSEWHERE, WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER.
OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE
(15 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY DIFFLUENT FLOW. TS
SINLAKU IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS SINLAKU IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 06 THEN TRACK INLAND,
DISSIPATING RAPIDLY. THE DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SINLAKU - Tropical Storm

#59 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 29, 2014 3:11 pm

JTWC final warning.

WTPN31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (SINLAKU) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 13.8N 109.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 109.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 14.0N 107.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 13.6N 105.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 108.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 21W (SINLAKU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 138 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN
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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: SINLAKU - Post-Tropical

#60 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 30, 2014 10:10 am

Sadly multiple casualties being reported...
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