WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical

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#841 Postby Krit-tonkla » Wed Dec 10, 2014 2:05 am

JMA upgrades to STS again

STS 1422 (HAGUPIT)
Issued at 06:50 UTC, 10 December 2014

<Analyses at 10/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°50'(13.8°)
E116°00'(116.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 10/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°10'(13.2°)
E113°40'(113.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 11/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°30'(12.5°)
E111°25'(111.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)

<Forecast for 12/06 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N9°40'(9.7°)
E105°50'(105.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa
Radius of probability circle 330km(180NM)
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Severe Tropical Storm

#842 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 10, 2014 9:23 am

40 knots...

WDPN31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING
NR 39//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 533 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
PERSISTING OVER A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 101213Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER, AND
SHALLOW BANDING ELSEWHERE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR
AND SSMIS IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE T3.0 DVORAK
ESTIMATES, BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWING 35 TO 40 KNOT
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OFFSET BY VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW TO THE NORTH. TS 22W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS HAGUPIT IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN VIETNAM BY TAU
30 AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. TS 22W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS
IT INTERACTS WITH THE COOLER, DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE BEYOND TAU 12. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK,
WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Tropical Storm

#843 Postby cycloneye » Wed Dec 10, 2014 2:51 pm

JMA downgrades to TS.

TS 1422 (HAGUPIT)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 10 December 2014
<Analyses at 10/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°50'(13.8°)
E115°05'(115.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 11/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°40'(12.7°)
E112°10'(112.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 11/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°50'(11.8°)
E109°55'(109.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)

<Forecast for 12/18 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N9°20'(9.3°)
E105°00'(105.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa
Radius of probability circle 330km(180NM)
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Tropical Storm

#844 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 10, 2014 9:19 pm

35 knots...

WDPN31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING
NR 41//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 408 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SMALL CONVECTIVE
CELL OVER A NEARLY FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), WITH THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION NOW DISPLACED
SIGNIFICANTLY EASTWARD. A 102101Z SSMIS 85 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THIS
DISPLACEMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION TO BE APPROXIMATELY 80 NM. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE LLCC IN MSI AND THE PGTW FIX WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS MAINTAINED AT 35 KNOTS AS
THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY WINDS DOWN. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS
22W STILL HAS FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, IT IS NOT
SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AS LOW LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE NOW COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL. TS 22W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS HAGUPIT IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO MORE STABLE AIR
AND CONTINUED VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE. TS 22W IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN VIETNAM BEFORE TAU 24 AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH LANDFALL AND DISSIPATION, EXCEPT FOR HWRF
WHICH CALLS FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY, OVER-WATER TRACK. THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTION DENOTES LANDFALL, HOWEVER THE SPREAD OF THE MEMBERS
REFLECTS THE POSSIBILITY THAT TS 22W COULD SKIRT THE VIETNAMESE
COAST. GIVEN THE OVERALL GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PRIOR FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Tropical Storm

#845 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 11, 2014 1:34 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Tropical Storm

#846 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 11, 2014 4:10 am

35 knots...

WDPN31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING
NR 42//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 354 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST OVER A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. AN 110155Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. AN 110156Z
ASCAT PASS PARTIALLY SHOWS 3O KNOT WINDS ON THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND THE PGTW FIX
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 22W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 22W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF LOW-
LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. TS HAGUPIT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN
RESPONSE TO MORE STABLE AIR AND CONTINUED VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER
SOUTHERN VIETNAM BY TAU 18 AND SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH
IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Tropical Depression

#847 Postby cycloneye » Thu Dec 11, 2014 7:52 am

Last warning by JMA.

TD
Issued at 12:40 UTC, 11 December 2014
<Analyses at 11/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N13°00'(13.0°)
E112°00'(112.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Tropical Depression

#848 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 11, 2014 8:04 am

22W HAGUPIT 141211 1200 13.1N 111.5E WPAC 30 1000

Down to a TD...Finally since December 1 when it was designated as a tropical storm, it is no longer contributing ACE...

33.09!!!

brings the season total to 273.577

Image

http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php
Last edited by euro6208 on Thu Dec 11, 2014 8:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Tropical Depression

#849 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 11, 2014 8:37 am

Image

big burst of convection...Dvorak back up to 1.5 but weakening from now on...

WDPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (HAGUPIT)
WARNING NR 43//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 314
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A SERIES OF
MICROWAVE IMAGERY INCLUDING AN 111201Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
SLIGHTLY INCREASED DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION, SSMIS IMAGE, AND
PGTW FIX WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS
BASED ON MATCHING DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA
OF MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TD 22W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 22W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN VIETNAM BY TAU
12 AND SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Tropical Depression

#850 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 11, 2014 10:44 am

PGTW and KNES upps to 2.0...

Hot tower...

Image
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Tropical Depression

#851 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 11, 2014 9:32 pm

Image

Made landfall
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Tropical Depression

#852 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 11, 2014 9:41 pm

Image

REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 10.5N 109.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 194 NM
EAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
MOVED OUT FROM UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION AND IS QUICKLY UNRAVELING,
WHILE THE REMNANTS OF THE CONVECTION IS TRACKING WESTWARD TOWARD
SOUTHERN VIETNAM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE AS THE LLCC IS ELONGATING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS FROM
PGTW, AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE RAPID DECAY OCCURING. TD 22W IS
FORECAST TO TRACK QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHWEST AS IT IS EMBEDDED IN THE
LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE OVER WATER
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
BOTH THE DIRECTION AND SPEED OF MOVEMENT, GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 120000Z IS 8 FEET.
//
NNNN
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#853 Postby somethingfunny » Fri Dec 12, 2014 1:53 am

Strange track.
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#854 Postby ohno » Sun Dec 14, 2014 1:08 am

Good riddance!
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#855 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Dec 18, 2014 3:33 am

HAGUPIT KILLED ONLY 19 PEOPLE, and bringing only 3-4 billion PHP in damages compared to Bopha and Haiyan which caused 1,000+ deaths and damages of more than 40 billion PHP.

:) Drastic improvement, then. :)
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