WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#761 Postby ozonepete » Sat Dec 06, 2014 10:22 pm

mrbagyo wrote:here's some wind report
Image


thanks!
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#762 Postby talkon » Sat Dec 06, 2014 10:23 pm

ozonepete wrote:Oh, no, wait. There's misunderstanding going on here.

1. Guiuan is 40 miles south of the center so I'm not sure that's "well south" since the "eye" was very large at that time, and we still have no data on how large the eye (or central calm area) was. If it was 30 or 40 miles across than Guiuan may have been in the eyewall.
2. Here's this from the New York Times this evening:
The typhoon made landfall by 9:15 p.m. near the town of Dolores on eastern Samar Island, Philippine government forecasters said. The storm had weakened somewhat as it approached land, with maximum sustained winds of 108 miles per hour near its center on Saturday afternoon, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration.

108 mph is 90 knots and high category 2. Actually I haven't heard any weather agency at all say that it was more than a high cat 2. Does anyone know of such a statement so far? I just said that I was expecting higher wind reports and surprised that there aren't any so far. And that's why I said that no documentation is mere speculation. Just trying to get answers based on data. I'm sure we'll get some better data sooner or later. :)


But PAGASA uses 10-min winds.
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#763 Postby ozonepete » Sat Dec 06, 2014 10:23 pm

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:But in reality, it made landfall as 115 mph.


Where did you get that number from my friend? What station reported 115 mph?
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#764 Postby ozonepete » Sat Dec 06, 2014 10:26 pm

Krit-tonkla wrote:
ozonepete wrote:Oh, no, wait. There's misunderstanding going on here.

1. Guiuan is 40 miles south of the center so I'm not sure that's "well south" since the "eye" was very large at that time, and we still have no data on how large the eye (or central calm area) was. If it was 30 or 40 miles across than Guiuan may have been in the eyewall.
2. Here's this from the New York Times this evening:
The typhoon made landfall by 9:15 p.m. near the town of Dolores on eastern Samar Island, Philippine government forecasters said. The storm had weakened somewhat as it approached land, with maximum sustained winds of 108 miles per hour near its center on Saturday afternoon, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration.

108 mph is 90 knots and high category 2. Actually I haven't heard any weather agency at all say that it was more than a high cat 2. Does anyone know of such a statement so far? I just said that I was expecting higher wind reports and surprised that there aren't any so far. And that's why I said that no documentation is mere speculation. Just trying to get answers based on data. I'm sure we'll get some better data sooner or later. :)


But PAGASA uses 10-min winds.


Yes, I know. Also JMA uses 10 minute winds. Only JTWC uses 1 minute winds. But after landfall the different meteorological agencies will say what they thought the landfall intensity was, and later adjust it depending on new data that comes in. I haven't heard any official agency state over 110 mph winds since it made landfall. Just trying to find out what the current thinking is.
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#765 Postby ohno » Sat Dec 06, 2014 10:45 pm

Why 11.78???????


TPPN11 PGTW 070308

A. TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT)

B. 07/0232Z

C. 11.78N

D. 124.33E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
06/2251Z 11.78N 125.15E GPMI
06/2358Z 11.67N 124.72E SSMS


LONG
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#766 Postby ozonepete » Sat Dec 06, 2014 10:51 pm

Looks like flooding threat could be less now. Convection is really collapsing due to land interaction and really cool dry air being ingested from the northwest. Rainfall rates must be dropping considerably. That would be great news for the Philippines. Let's hope so.
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Re:

#767 Postby ozonepete » Sat Dec 06, 2014 10:59 pm

RL3AO wrote:Haven't kept up with the reports today. With how slow its moving, I can imagine we're looking at some impressive rainfall totals.


With the collapse of the thunderstorms we probably won't see impressive totals from here on after all, thankfully.
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#768 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Dec 06, 2014 11:17 pm

Storm is now over south tip of Masbate
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#769 Postby ozonepete » Sat Dec 06, 2014 11:45 pm

Incredible collapse. Not much convection left to speak of. But of course given how powerful it was it will still take a while for the winds to die out so everyone needs to be careful.

Image
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#770 Postby ohno » Sat Dec 06, 2014 11:52 pm

Wind is picking up here in Manila. I'd say 20kts. Hagupit is definitely coming...
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Re:

#771 Postby ozonepete » Sun Dec 07, 2014 12:00 am

ohno wrote:Wind is picking up here in Manila. I'd say 20kts. Hagupit is definitely coming...


Yeah you will be on the stronger side of Hagupit. Watch out for strong winds.
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#772 Postby HurricaneTracker2031 » Sun Dec 07, 2014 12:16 am

Hagupit slowly weakens as it crosses the Phillippines. However, conditions still may be unfavorable for normal daily activities. Be prepared regardless.

Post on Hagupit and other basins: http://goo.gl/9qK93I


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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#773 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Dec 07, 2014 1:33 am

22W HAGUPIT 141207 0600 12.3N 124.1E WPAC 85 959
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#774 Postby ohno » Sun Dec 07, 2014 1:39 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:22W HAGUPIT 141207 0600 12.3N 124.1E WPAC 85 959


How's Cebu? Any damages, power interruptions?
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#775 Postby dhoeze » Sun Dec 07, 2014 2:28 am

any magical outlook that by tom this will just be a Tropical Storm?
How is the cold dry air in the area of the Typhoon?
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#776 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 07, 2014 2:46 am

Image

22W HAGUPIT 141207 0600 12.3N 124.1E WPAC 85 959

Southeast of San Vicente Northern Samar...
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#777 Postby talkon » Sun Dec 07, 2014 4:38 am

It's rapidly weakening now.

TPPN11 PGTW 070924

A. TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT)

B. 07/0832Z

C. 12.35N

D. 123.87E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/4.0/W2.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN OW YIELDS A CF
OF 3.5. PT AGREES WITH DT, WHILE MET YIELDS A 4.0 FOR RADID
WEAKENING. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN

TXPQ28 KNES 070911
TCSWNP

A. 22W (HAGUPIT)

B. 07/0832Z

C. 12.4N

D. 123.8E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/4.5/W2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN OW FOR A DT=3.5. MET IS 4.0 WHILE
THE PT IS 3.5. FT IS BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MCCARTHY
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#778 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Dec 07, 2014 4:43 am

ohno wrote:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:22W HAGUPIT 141207 0600 12.3N 124.1E WPAC 85 959


How's Cebu? Any damages, power interruptions?

We're fine. The worst is over, but we had power outages throughout the city but blackouts farther north. Winds were insane up to the north while they were just rains and winds here... Storm surge reported in Tuburan and Toledo
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#779 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 07, 2014 5:32 am

Sad news...3 dead, 1 year old and 65 year old due to hypothermia...not sure about the other one...
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#780 Postby ohno » Sun Dec 07, 2014 5:48 am

dhoeze wrote:any magical outlook that by tom this will just be a Tropical Storm?
How is the cold dry air in the area of the Typhoon?


Really hoping for this too. You could really feel the december coldness here ib manila. It will be awesome if this greatly weaken hagupit when it comes near manila
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