WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#781 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 07, 2014 5:53 am

Really impressive video from Masbate showing what seems to be mini swirls with very strong wind and rain unfortunately can't post it for some reason..
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#782 Postby ozonepete » Sun Dec 07, 2014 6:28 am

euro6208 wrote:Really impressive video from Masbate showing what seems to be mini swirls with very strong wind and rain unfortunately can't post it for some reason..


Can you post the name of the link? Thanks my friend.
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#783 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 07, 2014 7:11 am

ozonepete wrote:
euro6208 wrote:Really impressive video from Masbate showing what seems to be mini swirls with very strong wind and rain unfortunately can't post it for some reason..


Can you post the name of the link? Thanks my friend.


https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=907165139307498
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#784 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 07, 2014 7:13 am

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ng-Z3Ah_yCU[/youtube]

Evening update about an hour ago from Mike Adcock also known as senorpepr in storm2k
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#785 Postby cycloneye » Sun Dec 07, 2014 7:49 am

22W HAGUPIT 141207 1200 12.6N 123.7E WPAC 80 963
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#786 Postby ejeraldmc » Sun Dec 07, 2014 8:31 am

It will be over water for some time, but I hope it continues to deteriorate.
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#787 Postby talkon » Sun Dec 07, 2014 8:54 am

1500z JTWC warning is out. They also changed the intensity to 75 knots

WTPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 12.6N 123.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 123.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 13.1N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 13.5N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 13.7N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 13.6N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 13.3N 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 12.1N 111.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 10.4N 107.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 123.4E.
TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 198 NM SOUTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND
081500Z.//
NNNN
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#788 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Dec 07, 2014 9:02 am

Closest approach to Manila would be around 8PM local time tomorrow, 135 km south of Ninoy Aquino International Airport as a minimal typhoon. If I'm correct, Manila would get tropical storm-force winds.
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#789 Postby ohno » Sun Dec 07, 2014 10:11 am

There are some blue spots in the latest sat pic. Whats happening? Is the storm "being sheared"?
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#790 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 07, 2014 10:24 am

22W HAGUPIT 141207 1200 12.6N 123.7E WPAC 75 967

Latest has it over Masbate near San Jacinto, really fast mover from previous BT

Image

Tropical storm force winds over the Visayas and Metro Manila as indicated in the pink circles...

Image
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#791 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 07, 2014 10:25 am

WDPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 27//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 198 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS LOOSENED CONVECTIVE BANDING, YET TIGHTLY-WRAPPED
INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 070933Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE DEFINED LLCC. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW
AND RJTD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND THE CURRENT OVERALL STRUCTURE. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 22W REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (10
TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL TAPPING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TY 22W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 22W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
36 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
BY TAU 48, TY 22W IS FORECAST TO EMERGE INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
(SCS) AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS ANOTHER STR
LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST ASSUMES THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT. TY
HAGUPIT WILL CONTINUE ITS WEAKENING TREND OVER THE SCS AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE COOLER, MORE STABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY HAGUPIT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT
APPROACHES SOUTHERN COAST OF VIETNAM. WITH EXCEPTION OF HWRF, MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#792 Postby TheEuropean » Sun Dec 07, 2014 10:32 am

Does this look like an eyelike feature:

Image
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#793 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Dec 07, 2014 10:42 am

This looks like a sun-dried "typhoon" to me. :double: Been to Tagaytay City, Batangas earlier and so far all I've experienced is gusty winds but no rain.
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#794 Postby cycloneye » Sun Dec 07, 2014 12:28 pm

Plenty of damage in this area.I am sure help is going to pour very soon.

Image
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#795 Postby ejeraldmc » Sun Dec 07, 2014 12:57 pm

It seems to be going north?
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Severe Tropical Storm

#796 Postby cycloneye » Sun Dec 07, 2014 5:07 pm

JMA downgrades from Typhoon.

STS 1422 (HAGUPIT)
Issued at 21:45 UTC, 7 December 2014
<Analyses at 07/21 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°00'(13.0°)
E122°25'(122.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N390km(210NM)
S220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 08/09 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°20'(13.3°)
E121°05'(121.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL190km(100NM)

<Forecast for 08/21 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°30'(13.5°)
E119°35'(119.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 09/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°30'(13.5°)
E116°30'(116.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 10/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°00'(13.0°)
E112°20'(112.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL350km(190NM)
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Severe Tropical Storm

#797 Postby dhoeze » Sun Dec 07, 2014 5:18 pm

is this the miracle i've been waiting... did the cold dry air killed this?

http://classic.wunderground.com/tropica ... _5day.html
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Severe Tropical Storm

#798 Postby ozonepete » Sun Dec 07, 2014 5:37 pm

dhoeze wrote:is this the miracle i've been waiting... did the cold dry air killed this?

http://classic.wunderground.com/tropica ... _5day.html


Yep. I can't really see it coming back much at all now. It's got a lot more mountainous land to traverse and a lot more cool dry air to ingest. There will probably still be occasional flare-ups of strong thunderstorms with brief powerful wind gusts at various points along the path since the vorticity from such a powerful storm takes a long while to spin down. But overall this is very weak now and the worst is over. It's also moving more northwest than was originally forecast, but will turn southwest after it gets offshore, if it doesn't completely disintegrate.

Btw CIMSS ADT has it at 41 knots now.
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#799 Postby dhoeze » Sun Dec 07, 2014 5:40 pm

thanks ozonepete!!! this is the best news for this morning.
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Re:

#800 Postby ozonepete » Sun Dec 07, 2014 5:53 pm

dhoeze wrote:thanks ozonepete!!! this is the best news for this morning.


Yeah, you poor guys have been through enough. :)
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