WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical

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ozonepete
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Severe Tropical Storm

#801 Postby ozonepete » Sun Dec 07, 2014 7:17 pm

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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Severe Tropical Storm

#802 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Dec 07, 2014 8:03 pm

ozonepete wrote:Moving almost due north now...


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html


yes it is.



ozonepete wrote:This looks like a sun-dried "typhoon" to me. :double: Been to Tagaytay City, Batangas earlier and so far all I've experienced is gusty winds but no rain.


It started to rain here in Tagaytay city but the wind is not that strong. Temperature here is maybe in the range of 15 to 20 Celsius.
My friend, Tagaytay city is still in the province of Cavite...
Last edited by mrbagyo on Sun Dec 07, 2014 8:32 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Severe Tropical Storm

#803 Postby oaba09 » Sun Dec 07, 2014 8:36 pm

Latest from JMA

Image
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#804 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Dec 07, 2014 9:37 pm

This is the most difficult, bizarre and absurd storm that I've tracked.
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#805 Postby ohno » Sun Dec 07, 2014 9:53 pm

JMA and JTWC showing different eye position?
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Severe Tropical Storm

#806 Postby ozonepete » Sun Dec 07, 2014 10:31 pm

:uarrow: Yup. It is a very difficult storm. And yes the JMA and JTWC appear to have different positions. It also appears to be redeveloping convection at the moment. Just a very difficult storm to forecast and follow. At least it's very weak right now.
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#807 Postby oaba09 » Sun Dec 07, 2014 10:39 pm

PAGASA is expecting the eye to pass batangas which is very near southern luzon and metro manila.....The good news is, the storm is not that strong anymore.....The only worry we have right now is the amount of rain fall it will bring....
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#808 Postby ohno » Sun Dec 07, 2014 10:58 pm

JMA still at 55kts. 13.2N 121.9E
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#809 Postby ohno » Sun Dec 07, 2014 11:23 pm

I hear a humming sound coming from the sky but there's no wind. The sound is non stop so I guess it is not a plane...
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Severe Tropical Storm

#810 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Dec 07, 2014 11:25 pm

no longer a typhoon(1-minute sustained) as per best track
22W HAGUPIT 141208 0000 13.3N 122.7E WPAC 60 978
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Severe Tropical Storm

#811 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 08, 2014 2:12 am

22W HAGUPIT 141208 0600 13.5N 121.8E WPAC 50 985

Down to 50 knots...
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Severe Tropical Storm

#812 Postby ohno » Mon Dec 08, 2014 2:25 am

euro6208 wrote:22W HAGUPIT 141208 0600 13.5N 121.8E WPAC 50 985

Down to 50 knots...



Hi euro. Can you point out where the strong winds are right now? Because my friend in Cavite told me that they are experiencing strong winds right now. I'm 20 kms away to the east but we have only rains here.
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Severe Tropical Storm

#813 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 08, 2014 2:55 am

Center back over water again exiting the Marindueque coast near Boac and moving west northwest towards southern batangas...


ohno wrote:
euro6208 wrote:22W HAGUPIT 141208 0600 13.5N 121.8E WPAC 50 985

Down to 50 knots...



Hi euro. Can you point out where the strong winds are right now? Because my friend in Cavite told me that they are experiencing strong winds right now. I'm 20 kms away to the east but we have only rains here.


It's southeast of you and closing in...strongest winds are in northern visayas and southern luzon where you are at...
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Severe Tropical Storm

#814 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 08, 2014 2:55 am

WDPN31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING
NR 30//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 81 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAKENED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY INCLUDING
AN 080508Z NPP MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE DEFINED LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
MSI ANIMATION, THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE
FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS DECREASED TO 50 KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND
WEAKENING STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 22W REMAINS
IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY
A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TAPPING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. TS 22W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS HAGUPIT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE
NORTHEAST. BY TAU 36, TS 22W IS FORECAST TO EMERGE INTO THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA (SCS) AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS
RIDGING BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SCS. TS 22W WILL
CONTINUE ITS WEAKENING TREND ACROSS THE SCS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
COOLER, MORE STABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE
EVENT.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS HAGUPIT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT
TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAST OF VIETNAM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION
OVER THE GULF OF THAILAND BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF HWRF, MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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#815 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Dec 08, 2014 3:07 am

SAD NEWS FROM CNN: TYPHOON HAGUPIT KILLS 21 PEOPLE SO FAR, ACCORDING TO RED CROSS
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Severe Tropical Storm

#816 Postby TheEuropean » Mon Dec 08, 2014 4:00 am

Looking good for a weak system:

Image

Some convection is back near the center. I think it has some chances to regain some strength in the South China Sea.

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#817 Postby ohno » Mon Dec 08, 2014 4:11 am

Down to 85kph according to PAGASA
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Severe Tropical Storm

#818 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Dec 08, 2014 4:46 am

Is there a latest microwave image as to locate the center?
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Severe Tropical Storm

#819 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Dec 08, 2014 5:08 am

As per PAGASA, the center of "RUBY" have just made its 4th landfall in Batangas, near the vicinity of municipality of San Juan. They based it from radar data from Tagaytay and Subic.
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Severe Tropical Storm

#820 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 08, 2014 5:42 am

Been watching one of the philippine's news show...really amateurs even the forecasters seem to not know what they are talking about...news lead person talks about hagupit's eye and eyewall and the forecasters shows a satellite map but its really just a symbol of a typhoon with a hole in the middle and in fact theres really no eye or eyewall...
Last edited by euro6208 on Mon Dec 08, 2014 5:46 am, edited 2 times in total.
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