SIO: BAKUNG - Ex-Tropical

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jaguarjace
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SIO: BAKUNG - Ex-Tropical

#1 Postby jaguarjace » Tue Dec 09, 2014 12:06 am

90S INVEST 141210 0000 9.0S 100.5E SHEM 20 1007
Image

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:10 pm WST on Wednesday 10 December 2014
for the period until midnight WST Saturday 13 December 2014.

Potential Cyclones:
A tropical low lies near 9S 99E at 1330 WST and is expected to track west over
the next few days. It may develop over the next few days and there is a chance
it reaches tropical cyclone intensity on Friday or Saturday. During this time,
there is a chance it moves into the region from the north. Either way, it is
expected to move west of 90E (west of the region) on Saturday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Thursday: Very Low
Friday: Low
Saturday: Low
Last edited by jaguarjace on Sun Dec 14, 2014 3:18 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: SIO: INVEST 90S

#2 Postby jaguarjace » Wed Dec 10, 2014 3:39 am

Image

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.0S 99.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING, PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN
QUADRANT. A 100321Z METOP-A 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE
BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED LLCC. A 100221Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A
DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
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Re: SIO: INVEST 90S

#3 Postby jaguarjace » Wed Dec 10, 2014 11:51 pm

Indonesian Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics
Jakarta Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC)

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Southern Indonesia area
Issued Thursday, December 11th 2014 09.15 Western Indonesia Time

Tropical cyclone development possibility:
Suspect area with minimum pressure 1003 mb is observed in Indian Ocean near 9 S 97 E, about southwest of Sumatera Selatan , and moving westward.

Possibility to develop into tropical cyclone:
Friday (tomorrow) : medium possibility
Saturday (tomorrow +1): medium possibility
Sunday (tomorrow +2) : small possibility
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Re: SIO: INVEST 90S

#4 Postby jaguarjace » Thu Dec 11, 2014 12:58 am

Image

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.9S 97.4E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1S 97.1E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM NORTH OF COCOS
ISLAND. THE FIRST FEW FRAMES OF ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICT IMPROVING CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEPENING CENTRAL
CONVECTION. AN 110057Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS THE TIGHTLY CURVED
BANDING AND BUILDING CONVECTION AROUND THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
MOST RECENT PGTW FIX INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 30 KNOTS, AND THE GFS
MODEL IS INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24
HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
ENHANCED BY A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
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Re: SIO: BAKUNG - Tropical Cyclone

#5 Postby jaguarjace » Thu Dec 11, 2014 10:22 am

INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) JAKARTA

TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK AND IMPACT MAP
Tropical Cyclone BAKUNG

Issued Thursday 11 December 2014 21:04 WIB

Image
Image
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Re: SIO: BAKUNG - Tropical Cyclone

#6 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 11, 2014 9:27 pm

Image

REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 9.2S 93.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BAKUNG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1294 NM EAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
SLOWLY DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS
FRAGMENTED BANDING FEATURES BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS THE DEEP
CONVECTION BECOMES MORE PERSISTENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE IR ANIMATION AND PGTW FIX WITH WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10
TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
TC 03S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. BAKUNG IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ON THE SAME WEST-SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 48. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DUE TO PERSISTENT LOW TO
MODERATE VWS. JUST AS THE STR RE-ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
INDIAN OCEAN, NEAR TAU 72, A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
THE RIDGE AXIS AND SLOW THE WEST-SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM.
TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 120. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS BIFURCATED WITH NVGM, AVNO, AND EGRR INDICATING
THE POLEWARD TURN SOLUTION WHILE HWRF AND COTC INDICATE A MUCH MORE
EQUATORWARD TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID MORE CLOSELY IN
LINE WITH THE AVNO SOLUTION WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND
122100Z.//
NNNN
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Re: SIO: BAKUNG - Tropical Cyclone

#7 Postby Iune » Thu Dec 11, 2014 10:25 pm

Finally, I was wondering when Jakarta would be able to name another tropical cyclone :P
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Re: SIO: BAKUNG - Tropical Cyclone

#8 Postby jaguarjace » Fri Dec 12, 2014 1:29 am

03S BAKUNG 141212 0600 9.6S 92.6E SHEM 35 996
Image
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Re: SIO: BAKUNG - Tropical Cyclone

#9 Postby jaguarjace » Fri Dec 12, 2014 11:08 am

INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) JAKARTA

TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK AND IMPACT MAP
Tropical Cyclone BAKUNG

Issued Friday 12 December 2014 20:06 WIB

Image
Image
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Re: SIO: BAKUNG - Ex-Tropical

#10 Postby jaguarjace » Sun Dec 14, 2014 3:24 am

03S BAKUNG 141214 0600 8.8S 87.0E SHEM 25 1004
Image
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Re: SIO: BAKUNG - Ex-Tropical

#11 Postby jaguarjace » Mon Dec 15, 2014 1:49 am

03S BAKUNG 141215 0600 7.7S 85.1E SHEM 25 1004
Image
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Re: SIO: BAKUNG - Ex-Tropical

#12 Postby jaguarjace » Tue Dec 16, 2014 6:46 am

03S BAKUNG 141216 0600 7.0S 84.9E SHEM 20 1007
Image

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 1:32 pm WST on Tuesday 16 December 2014
for the period until midnight WST Friday 19 December 2014.

Potential Cyclones:
Ex-TC Bakung lies west of the region near 7S 85E. This system may redevelop in
the next few days and approach the northwestern boundary by late Thursday and
Friday. While it is most likely to remain outside the region, there is a small
chance it will briefly reach 90E by late Thursday or Friday before it moves to
the west.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Wednesday: Very Low
Thursday: Low
Friday: Low
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Re: SIO: BAKUNG - Ex-Tropical

#13 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 17, 2014 10:03 am

So originally forecast to strengthen to a 60 knot tropical storm 1 min but suddenly dissipated...
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