BoB: INVEST 95B

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cycloneye
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BoB: INVEST 95B

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Dec 24, 2014 3:40 pm

95B INVEST 141224 1800 4.0N 82.9E IO 15 1010

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Re: BoB: INVEST 95B

#2 Postby Grifforzer » Thu Dec 25, 2014 10:33 am

Dvorak 1.0 from India Meteorological Department

VORTEX OVER SW BAY ADJ INDIAN OCEAN SRILANKA CENTRED WITH IN HALF DEGREE OF LAT 5.0N 82.8E
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Re: BoB: INVEST 95B

#3 Postby cycloneye » Thu Dec 25, 2014 7:32 pm

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.6N 83.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 213 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBA, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHTLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING THE
LLCC TO THE WEST. A 251539Z METOP-A SHOWS THE DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST, OVER SOUTHERN SRI LANKA. THIS
IS CONFIRMED BY UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS OF THE SYSTEM BEING IN HIGH
(20 TO 30 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WINDSHEAR FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS IS
OFFSET, HOWEVER, BY
VERY GOOD POLEWARD AND EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP. DYNAMIC MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO MEDIUM.
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Re: BoB: INVEST 95B

#4 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 28, 2014 10:48 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.7N 84.6E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7N 83.0E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING,
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. A 271347Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS
SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SMALL, DEFINED LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20
TO 30 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY DIFFLUENT FLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
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