WPAC: JANGMI - Post-Tropical

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WPAC: JANGMI - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Dec 25, 2014 4:43 pm

They changed the invest number but this is what was 98W.

99W INVEST 141225 1800 7.0N 135.2E WPAC 15 1010

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#2 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 25, 2014 10:06 pm

99W INVEST 141226 0000 7.9N 134.5E WPAC 15 1010

From latitude 7.0 to 7.9...
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#3 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Dec 25, 2014 11:51 pm

It really lacks convection and a well-defined CDO. It's structure and circulation is evident but it's basically, naked.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#4 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Dec 26, 2014 1:38 am

the models are not anymore showing a moderate tropical storm or a typhoon out of this.... looks like this system is now properly initialized and saw the conditions nearby as not that conducive...


still a slow-tracker TD bears watching especially for low-lying areas...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Fri Dec 26, 2014 5:39 am

Looks like it's deactivated again...06Z BT hasn't come out...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Fri Dec 26, 2014 7:51 am

oh 12Z came out instead...

99W INVEST 141226 1200 8.5N 132.4E WPAC 15 1010

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Fri Dec 26, 2014 8:18 am

The reliable EURO doesn't develop this until it reaches the South China Sea where it maxes out at tropical storm strength and weakens south of Vietnam...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#8 Postby cycloneye » Fri Dec 26, 2014 12:45 pm

99W INVEST 141226 1800 5.2N 133.2E WPAC 15 1010
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#9 Postby euro6208 » Fri Dec 26, 2014 9:35 pm

Looks like Vietnam may need to watch this one...Models have this as a full blown typhoon by then...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#10 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Dec 26, 2014 10:09 pm

euro6208 wrote:Looks like Vietnam may need to watch this one...Models have this as a full blown typhoon by then...

Like Lingling 2001?

It hit the Philippines as a tropical storm then rapidly intensified to a typhoon then to a category 4 over the south China sea then landfall over Vietnam as a cat 1/2...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#11 Postby euro6208 » Sat Dec 27, 2014 1:36 am

00Z GFS brings this down to 976 mb in the South China Sea and weakening slowly till landfall over Vietnam...
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#12 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Dec 27, 2014 4:22 am

Now officially a tropical depression per JMA
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#13 Postby euro6208 » Sat Dec 27, 2014 4:47 am

LOW

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.5N 131.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 340 NM WEST OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK BUT CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN
FLANKS. A 270126Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED A BROAD LLCC WITH ENHANCED
EASTERLIES ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#14 Postby euro6208 » Sat Dec 27, 2014 4:50 am

Dvorak numbers now 1.0.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W (JMA TD)

#15 Postby Alyono » Sat Dec 27, 2014 8:27 am

Looks a bit like Washi
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W (JMA TD)

#16 Postby cycloneye » Sat Dec 27, 2014 9:23 am

First warning by JMA.

TD
Issued at 13:10 UTC, 27 December 2014
<Analyses at 27/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N7°55'(7.9°)
E129°40'(129.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1006hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 28/00 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N8°05'(8.1°)
E128°25'(128.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)
Radius of probability circle 150km(80NM)

<Forecast for 28/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N8°20'(8.3°)
E127°05'(127.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)
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#17 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Dec 27, 2014 10:53 am

I'm expecting a year crosser from this, like Soulik 2001. I also will not be surprised if there will be TS Jangmi by tomorrow; also not surprised if we see STS Jangmi before or on New Year's Day. 23W-to-be found a sweet spot of decreasing shear.
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#18 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Dec 27, 2014 10:54 am

Looking more like Son-Tinh 2012. Think this will follow its track and POSSIBLY INTENSITY.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#19 Postby euro6208 » Sat Dec 27, 2014 11:21 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:
euro6208 wrote:Looks like Vietnam may need to watch this one...Models have this as a full blown typhoon by then...

Like Lingling 2001?

It hit the Philippines as a tropical storm then rapidly intensified to a typhoon then to a category 4 over the south China sea then landfall over Vietnam as a cat 1/2...


Well Lingling occurred in November and we are in the winter months where conditions are less favorable...It could happen but never say never in the WPAC :lol:
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#20 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Dec 27, 2014 12:11 pm

99W caused some heavy squalls here over the city of Cebu.

Down south, a tornado ravished Oroquieta

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