WPAC: JANGMI - Post-Tropical

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#61 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Dec 28, 2014 9:44 pm

I know the underestimation by JTWC & JMA, but euro, umm.....

T3.5 = 55 kts

Highest winds found were about 39 kts

Best estimate would be 45 kts, based on a blend of these.
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Re: WPAC: JANGMI - Tropical Storm

#62 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 28, 2014 11:30 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (JANGMI)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (JANGMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM
EAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSOLIDATING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TS 23W PEAKED IN INTENSITY JUST PRIOR TO
LANDFALL, WHICH OCCURRED AT APPROXIMATELY 28/22Z, AS EVIDENCED BY A
FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 282030Z SSMIS IMAGE. AFTER
LANDFALL, THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WEAKENED SLIGHTLY ALTHOUGH THE
SYSTEM STRUCTURE REMAINS ORGANIZED. BASED ON THIS RECENT
INTENSIFICATION TREND, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40
KNOTS, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW/RJTD T2.5 (35 KNOT) DVORAK
ESTIMATES, BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
IMAGERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). TS 23W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW
TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 23W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 36 AS IT MOVES TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR. AFTER TAU 36,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE WESTERN STR ANCHORED NORTH OF SOUTHEAST ASIA AND THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA, AND, CONSEQUENTLY, IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72. TS 23W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT TRACKS
OVER THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES BUT IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY AS IT EMERGES OVER THE SULU SEA.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 23W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND SHOULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 72. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO INCREASING INTERACTION WITH A STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT,
WHICH WILL ADVECT COOLER, MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE SYSTEM INDUCING A
WEAKENING TREND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY
AND IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 255 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT
TAU 120, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK AS SUPPORTED BY THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE.//
NNNN
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Re:

#63 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 28, 2014 11:37 pm

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:I know the underestimation by JTWC & JMA, but euro, umm.....

T3.5 = 55 kts

Highest winds found were about 39 kts

Best estimate would be 45 kts, based on a blend of these.


Tell that to the Atlantic hurricanes haha we can't always rely on Dvorak. Oh if only we had recon.

How far from the eyewall is that 39 knots?
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Re:

#64 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 28, 2014 11:42 pm

Alyono wrote:lets stop overstating the intensity of this. This was not close to typhoon intensity


Well even if this wasn't a typhoon, we can all agree it's stronger than what the agencies are saying based on a well defined eye on microwave and radar. I'm thinking 60 knots.
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Re: WPAC: JANGMI - Tropical Storm

#65 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Dec 28, 2014 11:50 pm

Evident center of circulation..

Hint of an eye.

Image

Image



Damage in Butuan, very close to the center. Winds ARE surely much higher than indicated.

ALYONO


Image
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#66 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Dec 28, 2014 11:53 pm

GALE-FORCE WINDS NOW OVER CEBU.
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Re: WPAC: JANGMI - Tropical Storm

#67 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 29, 2014 12:02 am

It's holding pretty well even though it just came off land. Impressive outflow although not as deep as earlier and a warm spot aka eye clearly visible.
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#68 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Dec 29, 2014 12:12 am

This may be well 60 kts based on the damage reports and satellite appearance.
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#69 Postby Krit-tonkla » Mon Dec 29, 2014 1:52 am

23W JANGMI 141229 0600 9.2N 125.2E WPAC 35 996

Just 35 knots??
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#70 Postby Alyono » Mon Dec 29, 2014 2:26 am

those are downed trees

That happens in low end tropical storms

That said, not sure why JTWC is lowering the winds
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Re: WPAC: JANGMI - Tropical Storm

#71 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 29, 2014 4:30 am

WDPN31 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (JANGMI) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (JANGMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 407 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WANING OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKED ACROSS NORTHERN MINDANAO DESPITE REMAINING
TIGHTLY WRAPPED WITH WELL-DEFINED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 290446Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS
REVEALED A TIGHTLY WRAPPED STRUCTURE DESPITE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND
THE MICROWAVE PASS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN SLIGHTLY LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS, BASED ON THE WEAKENING OF THE
CONVECTION AND IS IN LINE WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TS 23W
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 23W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 24 AS IT MOVES TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR. AFTER TAU 36,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
ANOTHER STR ANCHORED NORTH OF SOUTHEAST ASIA AND THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA. AS THIS STR ASSUMES STEERING, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. TS 23W IS FORECAST TO STRUGGLE TO
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES BUT IS EXPECTED
TO RE-INTENSIFY AS IT EMERGES OVER THE SULU SEA.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 23W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND SHOULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 72. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO INCREASING INTERACTION WITH A STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT,
WHICH WILL ADVECT COOLER, MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE SYSTEM INDUCING A
WEAKENING TREND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AS
SUPPORTED BY THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: JANGMI - Tropical Storm

#72 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 29, 2014 5:10 am

Image

Damn that's a typhoon...

Looks like it's a big more organized with a tighter core than when it made it's first landfall...

Unbelievable...
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#73 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Dec 29, 2014 6:00 am

Surely above 50 kts...
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Re:

#74 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 29, 2014 6:46 am

Image
Image

Eyewall looks to have weakened a bit but the strongest part of eyewall is hammering Bohol province especially in Anda...
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Re: WPAC: JANGMI - Tropical Storm

#75 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 29, 2014 7:46 am

My friend send me this on twitter a few mins ago...

Image
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Re: WPAC: JANGMI - Tropical Storm

#76 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 29, 2014 7:51 am

23W JANGMI 141229 1200 9.9N 124.6E WPAC 45 989

JTWC upps to 45 knots, the highest out of any agency...

JMA still saying 35 knots...
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#77 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Dec 29, 2014 7:55 am

Floods here... Our house is getting affected :(
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Re: WPAC: JANGMI - Tropical Storm

#78 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 29, 2014 8:00 am

Oh I feel for millions of people over there expecting a tropical storm when in fact a typhoon is coming right at them!
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Re: WPAC: JANGMI - Tropical Storm

#79 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 29, 2014 8:05 am

Image

Hardest affected so far appears to be the Caraga region of Mindanao. Specifically, between Saturday at 8 am (PhST) and Monday at 2 pm, Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur, received 504.2 mm (19.85″); Surigao City, Surigao del Norte, received 223.8 mm (8.81″); Butuan, Agusan del Norte, received 217.8 mm (8.57″); and Punta Maria Borongan, Eastern Samar, received 217.0 mm (8.54″).


http://www.westernpacificweather.com/
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Re: WPAC: JANGMI - Tropical Storm

#80 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 29, 2014 8:12 am

Image
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