WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

[stormstrike]

JTWC has shifted south as others shifted north.

But anyway, JTWC's track is almost in line with ALL the numerical models EXCEPT for ECMWF which the other agencies is in line with.

What would be the track of Haiyan? We'll see within the next 48 hrs depending on its movement.

[stormkite]

Thinking here the first point of land contact will be the lower peninsula of Samar then move over the gulf in NW direction.


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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[euro6208]

really impressive...

With haiyan's formation into a typhoon, We are now at 16 typhoons overall including dateline crosser Pewa which became a typhoon in the WPAC...

Stunning...

[dexterlabio]

It's interesting that ECMWF was in the southerly solution and GFS was more towards the north, then they switched.

[stormkite]

2013NOV05 020000 5.0 971.1 90.0 5.0 5.0 4.3 MW ON

[euro6208]

Typhoon Haiyan trying to close off the eye...

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Likely closing in on Category 2 intensity.

Beautiful banding.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Likely closing in on Category 2 intensity.

Beautiful banding.

It has got the looks and organization of a typhoon! Agree?

[euro6208]

I know the philippines is getting all the attention because of an impending major typhoon but we shouldn't forget about our brothers and sisters in the islands called micronesia.

Chuuk state, the most populated island, escaped major damage...but The Republic of Palau and Yap state might not fare so well as they will face typhoon haiyan in the next few days.

[euro6208]

Likely closing in on Category 2 intensity.

Beautiful banding.

It has got the looks and organization of a typhoon! Agree?

it is already one...can't ignore a microwave eye and data to back it up...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Likely closing in on Category 2 intensity.

Beautiful banding.

It has got the looks and organization of a typhoon! Agree?

it is already one...can't ignore a microwave eye and data to back it up...

Looks way better than STS Bopha before it was upgraded. I think (hope not real) that this will be a lot stronger than Bopha/Pablo - around 155 kts and 910 hPa.


===============

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I know the philippines is getting all the attention because of an impending major typhoon but we shouldn't forget about our brothers and sisters in the islands called micronesia.

Chuuk state, the most populated island, escaped major damage...but The Republic of Palau and Yap state might not fare so well as they will face typhoon haiyan in the next few days.

At least, more attention. It is because it will hit a more populated and urbanized area.

Some people were too complacent during Bopha. Now, I guess people are now aware. A tornado just hit Cebu last Night!

I feel really bad for Bohol, recently hit by the 7.1 magnitude earthquake and still having aftershocks.

[Meow]

The title is sick. Why especially mentioned JTWC? Is Storm2K a U.S. Navy website?

[euro6208]

Agencies reporting a solid 4.0 on the dvorak scale...Meanwhile, ADT is showing 5.0= 90 knots...

The eye which appeared for a few hours has disappeared again due to a blowup of convection...

[euro6208]

Typhoon Force Winds impacting the outer islands of Yap State...

979
WTPQ33 PGUM 050347
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TYPHOON HAIYAN (31W) ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP312013
200 PM CHST TUE NOV 5 2013

...TROPICAL STORM HAIYAN BECOMES TYPHOON HAIYAN...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

A TYPHOON WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NGULU IN YAP STATE. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR YAP ISLAND IN YAP
STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 40
MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE TYPHOON WATCH FOR NGULU IS CANCELLED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SATAWAL IS CANCELLED.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WOLEAI IN YAP STATE. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP IN YAP
STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 40
MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS...ULITHI...AND YAP ISLAND
IN YAP STATE...AND FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.
TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...6.4N 145.2E

ABOUT 270 MILES WEST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 145 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SATAWAL
ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FARAULEP
ABOUT 115 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WOLEAI
ABOUT 530 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP
ABOUT 455 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 745 MILES EAST OF KOROR

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON HAIYAN WAS LOCATED
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 6.4
NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.2 EAST.

TYPHOON HAIYAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 16 MPH. HAIYAN IS
EXPECTED TO TURN SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS FORECAST
TRACK WILL BRING THE CENTER OF HAIYAN SOUTH OF WOLEAI AROUND 8 PM
THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TYPHOON
HAIYAN IS FORECAST TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800
PM.

$$

KLEESCHULTE/GUARD

[stormkite]

looks to be around 90+ kts atm to me.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ManilaTC]

May have even started its slight turn to the West Northwest...

[Grifforzer]

Big difference in readings..

Tokyo ADT
2013NOV05 043000 3.8 984.6 +5.4 61.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 NO LIMIT ON OFF -79.42 -76.22 UNIFRM N/A N/A 6.29 -144.68

JTWC ADT
2013NOV05 043000 5.0 971.2 90.0 5.0 5.0 4.3 MW ON OFF OFF -79.42 -78.04 UNIFRM N/A 62.1 6.41 -144.86

[stormkite]

The title is sick. Why especially mentioned JTWC? Is Storm2K a U.S. Navy website?

Meow you have a point there is always a monopoly of jtwcs forecasts and analisyis on the board.

Btw is Dotstar still doing dropwindsonde observations out of taiwan.

[euro6208]

Guys and Gals, We have a very dangerous typhoon headed straight for many islands that may cause many deaths and destruction.

It is not inviting to our many members and guests who comes here to search for information and hinders participation of many...

let us all unite as one and let this childish talk of agencies stand aside...