WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track still holding strong although down to 125kts.

31W HAIYAN 131108 1800 12.5N 117.9E WPAC 125 929

[Meow]

18z Best Track still holding strong although down to 125kts.

31W HAIYAN 131108 1800 12.5N 117.9E WPAC 125 929

JMA also made the winds down to 90 knots.

[supercane4867]

Haiyan



Gay

[Meow]

Haiyan was more rounded, especially for the eye.

[hurricanes1234]

Haiyan, in my opinion, looked much better than Gay. The type of symmetry found in Haiyan is almost non-existent for tropical cyclones, unless they begin to exceed 180 mph, not very common.

[cycloneye]

56 fatalitles reported so far

Official government figures have yet to be released but Super Typhoon Yolanda, said to be the most powerful cyclone to ever make landfall, reportedly left at least 56 dead as it moved across the central Philippines Friday.

According to a report by GMA News' Jiggy Manicad, aired on Friday evening's episode of "State of the Nation with Jessica Soho", at least 53 people were dead in Tacloban City and Palo town in Leyte. The province was one of the worst hit by the typhoon.

[bob rulz]

Why would the article be in English but the quotes not be translated into English?

I am almost horrified to see what the damage reports for this are going to be like. I can't even imagine what they just went through.

[cycloneye]

Still forecast to make landfall in Vietnam as a cat 2. 21:00 UTC warning.

[ohno]

guys...please take time to look at the latest WPAC sat image. There are clusters of clouds over the east. Are those developing storm again?

[wxman57]

Found this comparison of Haiyan vs. Katrina at Katrina's peak intensity south of Louisiana. Haiyan makes Katrina look weak at its peak:

[wxman57]

guys...please take time to look at the latest WPAC sat image. There are clusters of clouds over the east. Are those developing storm again?

East of where? Associated with Haiyan or well east of the Philippines? There's another disturbance near 3.5N/143E which is forecast to become a TS and impact the same areas hit by Haiyan in 4-5 days. Probably only as a TS, though.

[hurricanes1234]

Don't tell me that the forecasted area is going to be affecting these people again. Why????

[wxman57]

Don't tell me that the forecasted area is going to be affecting these people again. Why????

GFS has a TS with 35kt winds moving almost exactly on Haiyan's path through the Philippines. It reaches where Haiyan made landfall late Tuesday (local time). Euro doesn't develop this disturbance (now near 3.5N/142E) at all. So currently, it looks like a weak storm if it does develop. Develop or not, good chance of some heavy rain next Tue/Wed across the same areas hit by Haiyan.

[ohno]

Don't tell me that the forecasted area is going to be affecting these people again. Why????

GFS has a TS with 35kt winds moving almost exactly on Haiyan's path through the Philippines. It reaches where Haiyan made landfall late Tuesday (local time). Euro doesn't develop this disturbance (now near 3.5N/142E) at all. So currently, it looks like a weak storm if it does develop. Develop or not, good chance of some heavy rain next Tue/Wed across the same areas hit by Haiyan.

thank you for the info. one more question . that high pressure area to the north, will it weaken or dissipate in the coming days?

[wxman57]

thank you for the info. one more question . that high pressure area to the north, will it weaken or dissipate in the coming days?

To the north of what/where? If you're asking about the tracks of future tropical systems, then It's quite common for tracks to shift southward/westward in November (less recurving storms).

[AJC3]

Found this comparison of Haiyan vs. Katrina at Katrina's peak intensity south of Louisiana. Haiyan makes Katrina look weak at its peak:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/cap ... atrina.jpg

I'm pretty sure that image came from Dave Tolleris at wxrisk.com before the CWG included it in their blog. I replied to DT's post on FB regarding this comparison. Coincidentally, Sandy Delgado (Hurakan here on S2K) sent him a similar message almost at the same time. The crux of our message to him was as follows...

The image used, while it is from "Katrina at max intensity" was taken about 8-10 hours after it had achieved its best satellite presentation, which was when the center was south of PQL-MOB. This also corresponded with when Katrina *first* reached its max intensity in terms of MSW. After that time, tops started to warm slightly, and areal coverage of coldest tops, denoted by red in that image shrunk. If there was any gray at that time, there were only a few pixels of it embedded within the red ring.

Either way, Haiyan's satellite presentation blew away Katrina at its peak...its just Katrina did have a better satellite presentation than what is shown in that image. A little more accurate "image at max intensity" comparison would be to grab the AVN shot from around 18Z on the 28th rather than near 02Z on the 29th.

edit: I see now that the original source of that image was the Twitter feed of Weather Decision Technologies (WDT), and not DT/Wxrisk

[galaxy401]

How does this storm compare to Wilma and Rick?

[beoumont]

Just as a frame of reference for the images that will be coming out of the Philippines, below is a picture of what cat #5 damage looks like. This is Swan Island in the area of the local weather station after Hurricane Janet passed over in 1955.

[SapphireSea]

I have been watching this unfold in amazement. At least to me, this is likely the most intense Tropical Cyclone ever recorded thus far. STY Gay, which is one of the few to be studied as possibly stronger than Tip, looked less impressive than STY Haiyan. I really do hope the damage is less than anticipated.

[SapphireSea]

How does this storm compare to Wilma and Rick?

Atlantic Wilma had 882mb and Rick ~905. The official intensity was 895mb. Although, estimates supported as low as 853mb (the extreme of T8 scale), and GUESSING it was probably around the rumored 861-864mb. Because of the ridge to the north, I'd say Wind Speeds were at least were 195 as advertised, and closer to 205 in the eyewall. This storm at this magnitude is considerably stronger than both of them. Although Wilma in WPAC ambient pressure could have pushed similar numbers, so it's truly unknown.