ATL: FERNAND - Renmants - Discussion

[Sanibel]

It looks like all the ducks are in a row.

[ROCK]

Looks like this will be named by Recon later IMO....probably already a TD...

[HurricaneDREW92]

Needs a Special Advisory NOW. People in Mexico need warning. TWC Mets are laughing it off.

[SouthDadeFish]

Another visible image:



Excellent structure.

[MGC]

95L looks real good. Thankfully is will be ashore soon. Could become a moderate TS before landfall.....MGC

[HurricaneDREW92]

95L looks real good. Thankfully is will be ashore soon. Could become a moderate TS before landfall.....MGC

Probably will be one by the time recon gets there

[weatherwindow]

Winds continue to increase near Veracruz
Station SACV4 - SACRIFICE ISLAND, MEXICO
August 25, 2013 11:00 am CDT
Location: 19.174N 96.093W or 0 nautical miles N of search location of 19.174N 96.093W.
Wind Direction: NNW (340°)
Wind Speed: 33 knots
Wind Gust: 37 knots
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.88 in (1011.8 mb)

Here is the link for the above station:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... E&dist=250
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SACV4

Good afternoon, panama et al....checking for nearby ship traffic/reports ..none, zip...was rather surprised given the volume of coastal traffic on the Mexican coast ....Grtz from KW, Rich

[Aric Dunn]

I think the timing for recon is a little off... they should have been out there by now.

[NDG]

I guess the NHC had scheduled it for 20z thinking that it was not going to be organizing so quickly otherwise they would had scheduled it for 18z if not earlier.

[HurriGuy]

I'm just anxious to see if we get a hurricane in August now. is it really even possible with this thing so close to land? Where do y'all think the center is?

[RL3AO]

I think the timing for recon is a little off... they should have been out there by now.

C. 25/1715Z

Take off in 30 minutes.

[hurricanes1234]

The only factor inhibiting intensification is its close proximity to land, am I correct? However, someone said earlier that it is moving more NW than previously, which would mean more time over 31°C waters. What is the most logical scenario in terms of strength?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wxman57]

Certainly looks quite impressive on satellite. I suspect it's a TS with 40-45 kt winds. NHC should be able to upgrade without recon and without obs, or else they won't be able to upgrade a system east of 55W. Look for the 18Z model guidance to be titled "Six" or "Fernand".

[Macrocane]

Actually proximity to land is not a big issue for the Campeche Bay as several storms have intensified in near record time in there. 2007 Lorenzo (I believe it's actually the record from TD to cat 1), 2010 Karl and 2011 Nate come to my mind.

[weatherwindow]

I think the timing for recon is a little off... they should have been out there by now.

C. 25/1715Z

Take off in 30 minutes.

E. 25/1900Z to 26/0000Z

First obs in vicinity of 95L approx 300EDT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml

[KWT]

Usually the way the land curves actually helps systems in 95L's position, seen many a quick blow up from small circulations in this part of the BoC.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Feels like somethings just about to pop. Now wouldnt be the slightest suprised if this is 90kt at landfall.

[brunota2003]

Just my guess, NOT official!:

Given past systems and how quick they have organized in the BOC, I would not be surprised if recon found 50 knot winds in the convection down there. There is definitely a nice spin, question is does it extend to the surface in an organized LLC (versus just a broad spin)? I haven't looked at obs, and haven't really been paying attention today. By the time either recon leaves or it makes landfall, judging by the rapid organization, I wouldn't be surprised if it were pushing 55 to 60 knots.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Just my guess, NOT official!:

Given past systems and how quick they have organized in the BOC, I would not be surprised if recon found 50 knot winds in the convection down there. There is definitely a nice spin, question is does it extend to the surface in an organized LLC (versus just a broad spin)? I haven't looked at obs, and haven't really been paying attention today. By the time either recon leaves or it makes landfall, judging by the rapid organization, I wouldn't be surprised if it were pushing 55 to 60 knots.

Oh definitely. I might even go slightly more bullish on this system.

[RL3AO]

Feels like somethings just about to pop. Now wouldnt be the slightest suprised if this is 90kt at landfall.

Lets not get crazy now.