ATL: ERIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

What are the chances that Tropical Storm Erin is a threat to the United States or any Island?

Very early to know if the islands/U.S will have a threat from Erin. In 4-5 days we may have a better idea on how strong it may get or if it dissipates and on what track it takes.

[Ntxw]

Kind of looks like Dorian. Lets see if the compact center can survive the track west or fall in the same fate as predecessors. If it's another dmin/dmax cruiser it will be daily painful posts between dead and alive imo.

[HurricaneDREW92]

It's much too early but is there ANY chance AT ALL this becomes an east coast storm?

[tolakram]

It's much too early but is there ANY chance AT ALL this becomes an east coast storm?

There is no correct answer to this that makes any sense. Yes, of course there's a chance, there's always a chance. We just don't know what conditions will be like that far out, and no model is showing anything definitive yet.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Can someone could post the shear map and the SAL map to have a better idea of what TS shoud have to deal with?

Here you go, Shear and SAL map.

[Gustywind]

Can someone could post the shear map and the SAL map to have a better idea of what TS shoud have to deal with?

Here you go, Shear and SAL map.

Thanks to you

[CrazyC83]

It seems to have <5 kt of shear ahead and SAL may only be a modest factor?

[Steve H.]

Currently, there seems to be easterly shear affecting the Erin. We'll see how the environment ahead or behind treats her.

[sunnyday]

Guy on The Weather CHannel said earlier this morning that although Erin wii strengthen in the near future. It wii not affect the US. Should fizzle out by then.

[gatorcane]

Guy on The Weather CHannel said earlier this morning that although Erin wii strengthen in the near future. It wii not affect the US. Should fizzle out by then.

Surprised they would make that kind of statement with a system that is thousands of miles away from the U.S.?

Who is to say it doesn't fizzle only to to move further west and redevelop later on when conditions improve and then potentially impact the U.S.?

[floridasun78]

From Accuweather.com

Tropical Storm Erin Forms in Atlantic

August 15, 2013; 8:00 AM

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-v ... 1683763362

Our fifth tropical storms of the season has formed southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Heavy rain is expected.

accuweather saying may get stronger later in forecast but nhc say wont so who right

[Tireman4]

Guy on The Weather CHannel said earlier this morning that although Erin wii strengthen in the near future. It wii not affect the US. Should fizzle out by then.

Wow. Just wow.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Guy on The Weather CHannel said earlier this morning that although Erin wii strengthen in the near future. It wii not affect the US. Should fizzle out by then.

Wow. Just wow.

Yup, sounds like TV reporter type and not a Met.... Hard to fathom being dismissive with about a million variables in play. The SAL look likes it will decrease in influence on Erin if the LLC stays strong over the next couple days, and it moves west. The shear looks survivable as well. Of course, this is so far out it has many cycles to go through in the coming week. It does appear at this point, to be A long tracker in some form.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Guy on The Weather CHannel said earlier this morning that although Erin wii strengthen in the near future. It wii not affect the US. Should fizzle out by then.

Wow. Just wow.

Yup, sounds like TV reporter type and not a Met.... Hard to fathom being dismissive with about a million variables in play. The SAL look likes it will decrease in influence on Erin if the LLC stays strong over the next couple days, and it moves west. The shear looks survivable as well. Of course, this is so far out it has many cycles to go through in the coming week. It does appear at this point, to be A long tracker in some form.

Yeah saw that and was like... really?

[adam0983]

Carl Parker had said that Tropical Storm Erin would fall apart in 5 days. Just an opinion not a forecast.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Here are some links to information people seem to request regularly. Hope this helps. (MODS if its not appropriate to this thread feel free to move it...just thought it might help with some questions)

SAL
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... plitE&time

precipitable water
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

winds (shear and vorticity) (drop down located on North Atlantic section) This is a definite bookmark!
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/

Satellite for Atlantic/Pacific and floaters
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php

Buoy reports
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/rmd.shtml

West African SAT
http://www.sat24.com/en/wa?ir=true

RAMSDIS Tropical
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track.

AL, 05, 2013081518, , BEST, 0, 146N, 270W, 35, 1006, TS

[Blinhart]

OK the big question is what will the Bermuda High be doing for the next 2 weeks, that will decide what will happen with Erin and the system that will be coming off Africa in a couple days that will most likely form into something. If the Bermuda High stays strong and there isn't any weaknesses in there these two systems would have no other options other than to fizzle out into nothing or go West until it finds a weakness in the Ridge above them that will be driving them West.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Are these mets going by the GFS. The model that showed nothing in the long range. I don't see erin fizzling out. Don't see any big factor killing erin. This is my opinion and is not official.

[wxman57]

I'd agree with that Weather Channel meteorologist. Very good chance Erin will weaken back to a wave in 5 days and very unlikely to be any threat to the East U.S. Coast. Just looked at the high-res 12Z Euro and it weakens Erin back to a wave in 3-4 days, as does the GFS and Canadian. Though wind shear isn't too much of an issue presently, the GFS indicates 35-45 kts of shear in a couple of days and persistent shear beyond then. Same with Canadian & Euro. You can see the interaction of Erin and the shear on Levi's page:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

Just for fun, I went over to the Coastal Services Center and set a location where Erin currently is with a circle of radius 75 miles. Plotted all storms that have come within 75 miles of Erin's current location. I see the big 1915 Galveston hurricane in there, a big 1947 Miami hurricane in there, the 1928 Lake Okeechobee hurricane in there and 3-4 East Coast hurricanes. Over 90% missed the Caribbean and the U.S., though. And those that did hit the U.S. probably didn't have the same flow pattern that exists out there today.

http://csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#