ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

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ndale
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion - 20% - 40%

#21 Postby ndale » Tue Sep 17, 2013 7:24 am

Portastorm wrote:Given that we will have our first front of the fall season plowing into Texas, I'm guessing 95L will either stay squashed down in the BOC due to building high pressure in the Gulf or will get picked up by a frontal boundary/trough and slung into the central or northeastern Gulf.

And by the way, all of this talk about a "Texas ridge" isn't really accurate. Have you looked at the water vapor lately? The state is covered in upper level moisture. There is no ridge over Texas right now.


My dream this summer was a good rainmaker from the tropics moving into central Tx to lessen the drought but it appears we will always have a ridge over us or now a front moving in to block the systems so I guess we continue the drought into the fall/winter.
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#22 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Sep 17, 2013 7:34 am

The 00z GEM really cranked this up and slams the western FL Panhandle with a hurricane. But if I had a nickel for each time even this year that the GEM had a hurricane coming this way I would buy everyone a drink!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion - 30% - 50%

#23 Postby LaBreeze » Tue Sep 17, 2013 7:50 am

How far is the front expected to make it? Through the entire northern Gulf Coast or just the northwestern section? Is it expected to be strong or just wash out?
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#24 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 17, 2013 8:30 am

Wow surprised how dead this board is given development chances are on the increase and we have a system that looks like it will head towards the Gulf. Do folks just think this will do the same thing as Ingrid as far as track? I actually think that is not what will happen with this one. I don't forsee a Mexico threat but could be a threat to those along the Northern Gulf to Florida area if it develops. So much uncertainty with this. Definitely bears watching.

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Re:

#25 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Sep 17, 2013 8:33 am

I agree gatorgane about the possible future track of 95L not being a Mexico landfall. IMO

gatorcane wrote:Wow surprised how dead this board is given development chances are on the increase and we have a system that looks like it will head towards the Gulf. Do folks just think this will do the same thing as Ingrid as far as track? I actually think that is not what will happen with this one. I don't forsee a Mexico threat but could be a threat to those along the Northern Gulf to Florida area.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion - 30% - 50%

#26 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 17, 2013 8:34 am

I think it's going to be a big sloppy rain event, with some seriously damaging rainfall totals. I'm not seeing any data to lead me to believe this will be a well organized storm, but things can and will change.

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#27 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Sep 17, 2013 8:37 am

Gatorcane I agree with you. I am leaning towards the system being picked up by the approaching trough this weekend as well.

I think you will see this thread pick up with time as it will become more clearer as to where 95L will head, especially by the weekend.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion - 30% - 50%

#28 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Sep 17, 2013 8:39 am

typically first fronts, models don't pick up on strength!!! so we shall see
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion - 30% - 50%

#29 Postby underthwx » Tue Sep 17, 2013 8:45 am

Not wishin it for y'all....I feel whatever forms should move fairly quickly 2wards Fla. panhandle.....Not a forecast....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion - 30% - 50%

#30 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Sep 17, 2013 8:49 am

all depends on if the fronts is strong and etc, models this time of the yr aren't good with how strong the fronts are.
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#31 Postby Portastorm » Tue Sep 17, 2013 9:02 am

gatorcane wrote:Wow surprised how dead this board is given development chances are on the increase and we have a system that looks like it will head towards the Gulf. Do folks just think this will do the same thing as Ingrid as far as track? I actually think that is not what will happen with this one. I don't forsee a Mexico threat but could be a threat to those along the Northern Gulf to Florida area if it develops. So much uncertainty with this. Definitely bears watching.

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I think folks are frustrated and feeling somewhat defeated. Especially after Ingrid although the chances of Ingrid hitting the CONUS were never very much at all. Whether we like to admit or not, the interest level around here rises and falls with the threat level of something hitting the CONUS. Nobody wishes for death and destruction but we're all adrenaline junkies (or most of us are) and when there's something in the Gulf or approaching the SE USA coast from the southeast ... all of sudden everyone is interested. That's just the way it is.

On to 95L ... will be interesting to see future predicted outcomes once the computer models get a better take on the front coming late this week to the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion - 30% - 50%

#32 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Sep 17, 2013 9:11 am

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#33 Postby Ntxw » Tue Sep 17, 2013 9:32 am

I agree with Tolakram that this will likely be a mess if it heads NE. Front nearby will provide lots of shear and we'll get a strung out system with lots of rain. A NW gulf landfall is going to be highly unlikely with such a front.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion - 30% - 50%

#34 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Sep 17, 2013 9:41 am

it rainy here in miami hope dont get more Rainer
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion - 30% - 50%

#35 Postby N2FSU » Tue Sep 17, 2013 9:51 am

I just posted some recent model runs in the model thread for 95L. Models seem to be coming to a general consensus of possible N. Gulf coast action from this.
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#36 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 17, 2013 9:54 am

Definitely getting "that look" it is trying to develop. If this keeps up development chances could increase the next advisory. Land interaction with Yucatan is the main inhibiting factor as the shear doesn't look bad right now. Doesn't look to be moving much either. Big front is on the way for this weekend to pull this north or northeast. Folks along the Northern Gulf and Florida need to watch this:

Image

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Last edited by gatorcane on Tue Sep 17, 2013 9:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion - 30% - 50%

#37 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Sep 17, 2013 9:57 am

Impressive looking 8-) But won't need the shades this weekend probably.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion - 30% - 50%

#38 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 17, 2013 10:51 am

I think there's a good chance it'll develop into a TS and track along the same path as Ingrid. But that cold front doesn't really impact the BoC until Sunday. This storm may have moved inland by then.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion - 30% - 50%

#39 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Sep 17, 2013 10:54 am

my weather buddy told me that typically first fronts, models don't pick up strength that well so this could be really interesting..WXMAN and you know my buddy!!! 8-)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion - 30% - 50%

#40 Postby jconsor » Tue Sep 17, 2013 10:59 am

It's not the cold front itself that matters so much, it's the digging central US trough breaking down the Gulf of Mexico ridge by Fri night that would help draw 95L northward and prevent it from continuing WNW into Mexico.

GFS 500 mb forecast for Thu evening:
Image

GFS 500 mb forecast for Fri evening:
Image
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