ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[ndale]

Given that we will have our first front of the fall season plowing into Texas, I'm guessing 95L will either stay squashed down in the BOC due to building high pressure in the Gulf or will get picked up by a frontal boundary/trough and slung into the central or northeastern Gulf.

And by the way, all of this talk about a "Texas ridge" isn't really accurate. Have you looked at the water vapor lately? The state is covered in upper level moisture. There is no ridge over Texas right now.

My dream this summer was a good rainmaker from the tropics moving into central Tx to lessen the drought but it appears we will always have a ridge over us or now a front moving in to block the systems so I guess we continue the drought into the fall/winter.

[Dean4Storms]

The 00z GEM really cranked this up and slams the western FL Panhandle with a hurricane. But if I had a nickel for each time even this year that the GEM had a hurricane coming this way I would buy everyone a drink!

[LaBreeze]

How far is the front expected to make it? Through the entire northern Gulf Coast or just the northwestern section? Is it expected to be strong or just wash out?

[gatorcane]

Wow surprised how dead this board is given development chances are on the increase and we have a system that looks like it will head towards the Gulf. Do folks just think this will do the same thing as Ingrid as far as track? I actually think that is not what will happen with this one. I don't forsee a Mexico threat but could be a threat to those along the Northern Gulf to Florida area if it develops. So much uncertainty with this. Definitely bears watching.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Stormcenter]

I agree gatorgane about the possible future track of 95L not being a Mexico landfall. IMO

Wow surprised how dead this board is given development chances are on the increase and we have a system that looks like it will head towards the Gulf. Do folks just think this will do the same thing as Ingrid as far as track? I actually think that is not what will happen with this one. I don't forsee a Mexico threat but could be a threat to those along the Northern Gulf to Florida area.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

I think it's going to be a big sloppy rain event, with some seriously damaging rainfall totals. I'm not seeing any data to lead me to believe this will be a well organized storm, but things can and will change.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[northjaxpro]

Gatorcane I agree with you. I am leaning towards the system being picked up by the approaching trough this weekend as well.

I think you will see this thread pick up with time as it will become more clearer as to where 95L will head, especially by the weekend.

[stormlover2013]

typically first fronts, models don't pick up on strength!!! so we shall see

[underthwx]

Not wishin it for y'all....I feel whatever forms should move fairly quickly 2wards Fla. panhandle.....Not a forecast....

[stormlover2013]

all depends on if the fronts is strong and etc, models this time of the yr aren't good with how strong the fronts are.

[Portastorm]

Wow surprised how dead this board is given development chances are on the increase and we have a system that looks like it will head towards the Gulf. Do folks just think this will do the same thing as Ingrid as far as track? I actually think that is not what will happen with this one. I don't forsee a Mexico threat but could be a threat to those along the Northern Gulf to Florida area if it develops. So much uncertainty with this. Definitely bears watching.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think folks are frustrated and feeling somewhat defeated. Especially after Ingrid although the chances of Ingrid hitting the CONUS were never very much at all. Whether we like to admit or not, the interest level around here rises and falls with the threat level of something hitting the CONUS. Nobody wishes for death and destruction but we're all adrenaline junkies (or most of us are) and when there's something in the Gulf or approaching the SE USA coast from the southeast ... all of sudden everyone is interested. That's just the way it is.

On to 95L ... will be interesting to see future predicted outcomes once the computer models get a better take on the front coming late this week to the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast.

[Stormcenter]

Starting to get that look. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/95L/flash-vis-long.html

[Ntxw]

I agree with Tolakram that this will likely be a mess if it heads NE. Front nearby will provide lots of shear and we'll get a strung out system with lots of rain. A NW gulf landfall is going to be highly unlikely with such a front.

[floridasun78]

it rainy here in miami hope dont get more Rainer

[N2FSU]

I just posted some recent model runs in the model thread for 95L. Models seem to be coming to a general consensus of possible N. Gulf coast action from this.

[gatorcane]

Definitely getting "that look" it is trying to develop. If this keeps up development chances could increase the next advisory. Land interaction with Yucatan is the main inhibiting factor as the shear doesn't look bad right now. Doesn't look to be moving much either. Big front is on the way for this weekend to pull this north or northeast. Folks along the Northern Gulf and Florida need to watch this:



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tropicwatch]

Impressive looking But won't need the shades this weekend probably.

[wxman57]

I think there's a good chance it'll develop into a TS and track along the same path as Ingrid. But that cold front doesn't really impact the BoC until Sunday. This storm may have moved inland by then.

[stormlover2013]

my weather buddy told me that typically first fronts, models don't pick up strength that well so this could be really interesting..WXMAN and you know my buddy!!!

[jconsor]

It's not the cold front itself that matters so much, it's the digging central US trough breaking down the Gulf of Mexico ridge by Fri night that would help draw 95L northward and prevent it from continuing WNW into Mexico.

GFS 500 mb forecast for Thu evening:


GFS 500 mb forecast for Fri evening: