BOB : Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

[supercane4867]

Should be named Phailin soon

[HURAKAN]

Should be named Phailin soon

great pic!! do you have the link?

[mrbagyo]

the Ganges delta is just outside of that cone...

[CrazyC83]

What are shear and dry air like ahead of it? The Indian Ocean is untested this year so could this be where big things happen?

[euro6208]

up to 40 knots...

WTIO31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 13.7N 92.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 92.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 14.4N 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 15.1N 89.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 15.8N 88.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 16.7N 86.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 18.8N 84.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.1N 82.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 91.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 517 NM SOUTH OF
CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY INTO THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. THE LLCC HAS
RECENTLY CROSSED THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE ANDAMAN ISLANDS, WHICH
BRIEFLY INTERRUPTED THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW; HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS
NEARLY FINISHED CROSSING NORTH ANDAMAN. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 02B IS LOCATED WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIA. THE FLOW
AROUND THE STR IS CREATING LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS (05 TO 15 KNOTS)
OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE LLCC AND IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW FOR THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW. A RECENT 090539Z OSCAT
PASS INDICATED WINDS, AS THE SYSTEM CROSSED OVER NORTH ANDAMAN, WERE
BETWEEN 30 TO 35 KNOTS. BASED ON THE SLIGHT WEAKENING OBSERVED AS
THE SYSTEM CROSSED OVER NORTH ANDAMAN AND THE QUICK REORGANIZATION
AS IT MOVED FURTHER INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL, THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WAS MAINTAINED AT 40 KNOTS. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN A FAIR
GROUPING, SHOWING THE SYSTEM TRACKING STEADILY TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST, MAKING LANDFALL AROUND TAU 72, AND BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE
AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE TERRAIN OF CENTRAL INDIA. BASED ON THE TIGHT
AGREEMENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.//
NNNN

[Alyono]

its closer to 50 kts based upon OSCAT data. Thats what I have told our interests it currently is

[jaguarjace]

India Meteorological Department

Time of Issue: 2000 hours IST
Bulletin Number: BOB 04/2013/09
Subject: Cyclonic storm, PHAILIN in East central Bay of Bengal: Cyclone Alert for North Andhra Pradesh and Orissa Coast. Cyclone Warning for Andaman & Nicobar Island

The deep depression over east central Bay of Bengal remained practically stationery, intensified into a cyclonic storm, PHAILIN and lay centred at 1730 hrs IST of today, 09th October 2013 over near latitude 13.50N and longitude 92.50E, about 220 km north-northwest of Port Blair, 950km southeast of Paradip, 1100 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam. The system would intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hours. It would continue to move west-northwestwards for some time and then northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast between Kalingapatnam and Paradip by night of 12th October, 2013 as a very severe cyclonic storm with a maximum sustained wind speed of 175-185 kmph.

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/cwind.pdf

[CrazyC83]

09/1500 UTC 13.9N 92.4E T3.0/3.0 02B -- Bay of Bengal

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track up to 50kts.

02B TWO 131009 1800 14.1N 91.6E IO 50 985

[wxman57]

Looks like it may be developing an eyewall.

[cycloneye]

The 21:00 UTC forecast has Phailin as a cat 2 making landfall.

[wxman57]

IMD forecast has it as a Cat 3 (100kts) at landfall. Either way, it's going to have a big impact on India.

[Alyono]

Trust me... it will be MUCH stronger than JTWC is indicating. Not sure how they get a peak intensity of 85 KT. Even the raw GFS has a higher intensity

[HURAKAN]

Intensifying

[Dave C]

That's quite a feeder band on the south side. I agree this will be WAY stronger than forecasted.

[HURAKAN]

PHAILIN rapidly intensifying

[CrazyC83]

09/2030 UTC 14.4N 91.5E T4.5/4.5 PHAILIN -- Bay of Bengal

[CrazyC83]

Based on all the data and microwave, I would put the current intensity at 75 kt.

[RL3AO]

TXIO24 KNES 092102
TCSNIO

A. 02B (PHAILIN)

B. 09/2030Z

C. 14.4N

D. 91.5E

E. THREE/MET-7

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSU/TMI

H. REMARKS...1810Z TMI CLEARLY SHOWED AN EYE WHICH WAS ALSO PRESENT
IN EIR. AT CLASSIFICATION TIME THE CENTER WAS EMBEDDED IN WHITE FOR
A DT=5.0 WHICH IS NOT CONSIDERED CLEAR CUT. THE MET IS 4.5 BASED ON
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AND THE PT AGREES. A 6-HOUR
AVERAGE WAS CALCULATED YIELDING AN AVERAGE DT OF 4.58 ALLOWING THE RULE
LIMITING CHANGES IN FT TO 1.0 IN 6 HOURS TO BE BROKEN. FT IS BASED ON
RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

09/1538Z 14.0N 92.0E AMSU
09/1810Z 14.2N 91.8E TMI


...MCCARTHY

[RL3AO]

JTWC showing a very very unrealistic 3.5

TPIO10 PGTW 092124

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN)

B. 09/2030Z

C. 14.3N

D. 91.6E

E. FIVE/MET7

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .90 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 3.5 DT. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
09/1810Z 14.0N 91.7E TRMM


BERMEA