ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

Hammy · #21 Postby **Hammy** » Mon Oct 07, 2013 12:28 pm

What's odd is that I'm seeing more easterly shear with this than anything. Either way, another false alarm by the looks of it.

StormingB81 wrote:LOL the sad thing is I didn't even catch it when I first read it until I saw you post and looked at it again

Andy_L wrote:LOL can tell that was written at 2 AM

Gustywind wrote:2 AM TWD

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS ALONG 28W/29W ....

Even NHC is so bored and jaded they just want to get the season over with.

#22 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 07, 2013 12:34 pm

Up to 30% / 40%

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS WEEK...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 TO 10
MPH.

#23 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Oct 07, 2013 12:46 pm

They keep saying less conducive later in the week but increasing the 5 day chances.

I suppose this means the best chance for development is day 3 and 4.

#24 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 07, 2013 12:48 pm

tolakram wrote:They keep saying less conducive later in the week but increasing the 5 day chances. I suppose this means the best chance for development is day 3 and 4.

Is interesting the change in the language from 8 AM to 2 PM.

I think a more robust GFS run had to do with it.

#25 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 07, 2013 1:07 pm

The orange circle covers a large area. Looks like two waves in there.

2 PM TWD Special Feature:

A WEAK 1013 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR
9N28W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 26W-31W.

tropicwatch · #26 Postby **tropicwatch** » Mon Oct 07, 2013 1:24 pm

Looks like the wave in proximity of 10N 25W is becoming dominant.

The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

#27 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 07, 2013 2:24 pm

18z Best Track:

AL, 98, 2013100718, , BEST, 0, 92N, 267W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

#28 Postby **StormTracker** » Mon Oct 07, 2013 3:09 pm

cycloneye wrote:The orange circle covers a large area. Looks like two waves in there.

2 PM TWD Special Feature:

A WEAK 1013 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR
9N28W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 26W-31W.

Maybe that's why the CMC might have been showing 2 storms in it's earlier run!

HurricaneDREW92 · #29 Postby **HurricaneDREW92** » Mon Oct 07, 2013 5:09 pm

Tim Kelly from NECN is telling us to keep an eye on this one??? It's two weeks out.

#30 Postby **ozonepete** » Mon Oct 07, 2013 5:15 pm

cycloneye wrote:
tolakram wrote:They keep saying less conducive later in the week but increasing the 5 day chances. I suppose this means the best chance for development is day 3 and 4.

Is interesting the change in the language from 8 AM to 2 PM. I think a more robust GFS run had to do with it.

I think you are 100% right. :wink:

#31 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Oct 07, 2013 5:19 pm

18Z GFS just as robust as 12Z through 144 hours. I guess NHC will need to change the language again to be more bullish for the next 8pm EST advisory...probably another subtle change to the wording

Gustywind · #32 Postby **Gustywind** » Mon Oct 07, 2013 6:02 pm

Tropical Update

Stu Ostro, Senior Meteorologist, The Weather Channel

Oct 7, 2013 6:33 pm ET

:rarrow:

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

INVEST 98L

There's lots of stuff west of Africa on satellite imagery, but not much organization/development to it yet. Latest probability from NHC is a medium chance of becoming at least a depression in the next few days. Most model runs have kept the system out at sea, though one by the aforementioned GFS model brought it to the Caribbean.

#33 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 07, 2013 6:34 pm

Up to 40%/50%

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER WELL TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
AND IT HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE WEEK...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

#34 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 07, 2013 7:06 pm

8 PM TWD Special Feature:

A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH
CENTERED NEAR 09N27W. THE LOW REMAINS THE FOCUS OF A RELATIVELY
BROAD MONSOONAL GYRE THAT COVERS THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC FROM
06N-14N BETWEEN 18W-33W AND FALLS BENEATH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 11N21W. THIS IS
PROVIDING AMPLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT IN THE VICINITY
OF THE LOW WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 06N-13N BETWEEN 20W-30W.

#35 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 07, 2013 7:34 pm

00z Best Track.

AL, 98, 2013100800, , BEST, 0, 92N, 270W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

#36 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 07, 2013 8:45 pm

850mb looks a little bit stronger.

#37 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Oct 07, 2013 9:26 pm

Looking promising from what I can see on Sat imagery tonight. Certainly could be our next named system.

Oddly it may be October that actually produces a nice looking Cape Verde system. Where was this in August and September?

#38 Postby **stormkite** » Mon Oct 07, 2013 9:35 pm

floridasun78 · #39 Postby **floridasun78** » Mon Oct 07, 2013 9:54 pm

stormkite wrote:http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/3209/qpt1.png

water pretty warm closer to islands

#40 Postby **fci** » Tue Oct 08, 2013 2:19 am

2013: Been there, seen that.
Wave near Cape Verde looks good, develops; maybe into a TD or named storm and then runs into areas not conducive for development or hostile.
Yet another with 98L.
We will stay tuned.
Certainly not complaining about the lack of threats this season!

ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion - 30% / 40%

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion - 30% / 40%

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion - 30% / 40%

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion - 30% / 40%

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion - 30% / 40%

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion - 30% / 40%

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion - 30% / 40%

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion - 30% / 40%

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion - 30% / 40%

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion - 40% / 50%

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion - 40% / 50%

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion - 40% / 50%

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