ATL: FERNAND - Renmants - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

Station SACV4
EPA & Mexican Government Cooperative Program
Location: 19.174N 96.093W
Date: Sun, 25 Aug 2013 20:00:00 UTC
Winds: NNW (340°) at 33.0 kt gusting to 40.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.79 in and falling
Air Temperature: 80.6 F
Dew Point: 75.0 F

[Alyono]

you're really using extrapolated pressures from 30,000 feet?

[CrazyC83]

you're really using extrapolated pressures from 30,000 feet?

That's the background pressure, not the storm pressure. But it can provide clues.

[RL3AO]

1044mb is the background pressure extrapolated, so the pressure of the storm could be quite high.

Come on. 1044mb happens under very very very strong winter highs. Its clearly an issue with recon flying so high.

[CrazyC83]

1044mb is the background pressure extrapolated, so the pressure of the storm could be quite high.

Come on. 1044mb happens under very very very strong winter highs. Its clearly an issue with recon flying so high.

I wasn't sure, since I can't recall seeing it so high even over an adjacent ridge.

[bamajammer4eva]

Looks like they will call it TD so no Fernand yet

US National Weather Service Southern Region HQ
26 minutes ago
TD #6 forms in the Bay of Campeche. May become a tropical storm before making landfall along the south-central Mexican coast Monday morning

.

[ScottNAtlanta]

This is the closest station right now...and its showing close to TS winds with falling pressure
(19°10'27" N 96°5'34" W)
Station SACV4 - Sacrifice Island, Mexico

Wind Direction (WDIR): NNW ( 340 deg true )
Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 33.0 kts
Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 40.0 kts
Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.79 in
Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.6 °F
Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 75.0 °F
24-hour plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 33.0 kts
24-hour plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 36.9 kts

[HurriGuy]

NHC just released its TD 6 as of now.

[cycloneye]

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF GULF COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 95.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[NDG]

1044mb is the background pressure extrapolated, so the pressure of the storm could be quite high.

Come on. 1044mb happens under very very very strong winter highs. Its clearly an issue with recon flying so high.

I wasn't sure, since I can't recall seeing it so high even over an adjacent ridge.

All you have to do is look at the pressures reported by the buoys along the GOM, which they highest is around 1020-1022 mb along the north central gulf coast, much lower in the BOC.

[HurriGuy]

I don't see how this doesn't make land fall tonight.

[SeGaBob]

I feel that the plane may find this as a 40-45mph TS.




_________________
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[northjaxpro]

IT probably will reach minimum TS status just before coming ashore this evening.

[hurricanekid416]

I'm not so sure that recon will get there before landfall

[NDG]

41 knot wind gusts now near the coast off of Veracruz, the airport reporting 35 mph wind gusts a as squall moves through.

Conditions at VERV4 as of
(4:00 pm CDT)
2100 GMT on 08/25/2013:

Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 350 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 32.1 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 41.0 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.76 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.2 °F
Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 31.1 kts
Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 35.0 kts

[SouthDadeFish]

Center is becoming very well defined:

[NDG]

Live webcam in Veracruz, wx going down hill.



http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcam-veracruz.html

[Hurricaneman]

Center is becoming very well defined:

http://img836.imageshack.us/img836/624/dwb.gif

my eyes may be playing tricks on me, but is that a forming eye

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Should have Fernand at 8pm EDT.

[NDG]

Saved radar loop from MX, shows the COC becoming very well defined, not moving very fast.