ATL: KAREN - Models

[MGC]

18Z GFDL: Landfall just west of Grand Isle LA 80KTS moving NE with a second landfall near Ocean Springs MS 79KTS. Hope not.....MGC

[bella_may]

18Z GFDL: Landfall just west of Grand Isle LA 80KTS moving NE with a second landfall near Ocean Springs MS 79KTS. Hope not.....MGC

Think that's a west shift. And i'm with ya! What's the intensity?

Edit: nevermind just noticed you said 79 kts. Ouch. Hope that is not a trend.

[gatorcane]

That is indeed some crazy ENE hook by the GFS at the end. I wouldn't discount that just yet.

Use the GFDL and HWRF intensities with caution.

[MGC]

Near 80KTS at both landfalls. I just don't see that kind of intensity with all the dry air....MGC

[ronjon]

18z GFS could be a bad run or it might be on to something. Its much slower after 48 hrs which allows the trough to catch up to it so to speak. High pressure builds to its northeast in 48 hrs which essentially causes a stall for nearly 24 hrs. Then it starts moving E-NE into the big bend. Have to watch the trends on this one to see if that high pressure builds in and blocks the storm.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013100318/gfs_mslp_wind_watl.html

[Aric Dunn]

Near 80KTS at both landfalls. I just don't see that kind of intensity with all the dry air....MGC

as long as its moving with the shear .. it can keep the dry air out and of course the relative shear with decreased by its forward motion.

[ROCK]

its going to hook NE but is it going to make landfall in LA before then. thats is the question.....See a NW jog right now....will see if she corrects.

if you are going to knock the EURO over Debbie thats ok because the CMC/ NOGAPS / NAM/ HWRF failed with her also. GFS got it right though I am pretty sure Debbie had some center relo's that helped it out.

[stormlover2013]

It exactly did relocate a center!!

[northtxboy]

Now i dont have a favorite model at all. my favorite one is the right one. and your right rock all the models but the gfs failed. i just look at it like this. with the few storms we have had this year the gfs has been correct more times than the euro. take andrea fofr an example. gfs showed a stronger storm at landfall and other models didnt. gfs was right agian. now everyone remember i dont have a favorite model nor am i trying to start a model war but i have to side with the gfs on this.

[LaBreeze]

Now i dont have a favorite model at all. my favorite one is the right one. and your right rock all the models but the gfs failed. i just look at it like this. with the few storms we have had this year the gfs has been correct more times than the euro. take andrea fofr an example. gfs showed a stronger storm at landfall and other models didnt. gfs was right agian. now everyone remember i dont have a favorite model nor am i trying to start a model war but i have to side with the gfs on this.

A favorite model war would be interesting, but many of them just don't eat enough and may fall off of the catwalk... (just thought that I'd add a bit of humor here to lighten the situation)

[Dean4Storms]

18z FIM9 has been taking this over into eastern LA, but 18z turned east and into FL Panhandle.


http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=fim9_jet:&runTime=2013100318&plotName=wind_10m&fcstInc=360&numFcsts=57&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=336&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=244

[Frank P]

18z FIM9 has been taking this over into eastern LA, but 18z turned east and into FL Panhandle.


http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=fim9_jet:&runTime=2013100318&plotName=wind_10m&fcstInc=360&numFcsts=57&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=336&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=244

That is one impressive right turn.. must sense the front is speeding up somewhat to create the hard shunt...

[gatorcane]

00Z NAM is a little weaker and a little more west with this system through 24 hours.

[ROCK]

yep the 0Z NAM is weaker and into central LA before heading NE with the front....the front is slower so Karen is able to beat it to the coast...

[BigB0882]

Isn't this where the NAM is useful? On the timing of fronts, troughs? I know we can't always look at it for strength or even position of tropical cyclones, but maybe the timing of the front is something we can take seriously. What do those of you that know much more than I do say?

[Aric Dunn]

00Z NAM is a little weaker and a little more west with this system through 24 hours.

The nam... though good with large scale features.. dont ever take for a tropical system.. it initialized an not closed 1009 mb low.. take a look at the 500 mb on the nam.. you will notice the vorticity splits...

the nam never to be used as forecast for tropical systems

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance ... mageSize=M

[MidnightRain]

yep the 0Z NAM is weaker and into central LA before heading NE with the front....the front is slower so Karen is able to beat it to the coast...

If Karen goes that far west she might not even be Karen at that point, look at the shear that's to her west.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Isn't this where the NAM is useful? On the timing of fronts, troughs? I know we can't always look at it for strength or even position of tropical cyclones, but maybe the timing of the front is something we can take seriously. What do those of you that know much more than I do say?

I'm curious about this as well. Not worried about where they show Karen going but which model seems to have the best handle on the current and future strength of the front as well as current and future speed?

[Javlin]

18z FIM9 has been taking this over into eastern LA, but 18z turned east and into FL Panhandle.


http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=fim9_jet:&runTime=2013100318&plotName=wind_10m&fcstInc=360&numFcsts=57&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=336&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=244

If we see a slow down tomorrow I think we can buy the E hook synopsis but both the FIM and GFS are slower than the rest;wait and see....

[tropicwatch]

18z FIM9 has been taking this over into eastern LA, but 18z turned east and into FL Panhandle.


[

If we see a slow down tomorrow I think we can buy the E hook synopsis but both the FIM and GFS are slower than the rest;wait and see....

It might be confirming, 10pm advisory slowed forward speed to 10mph and it still appears not to have made it past 89w.


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