CPAC: FLOSSIE - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 19
Issued: 500 AM HST MON JUL 29 2013
Flossie weakening as it approaches main Hawaiian islands
SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION: 20.5N 153.5W
ABOUT 120 MI: 190 KM ENE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 290 MI: 465 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 45 MPH: 75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH: 26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 MB or 29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY

A tropical storm warning has been issued for Kauai and Niihau.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR:
*HAWAII COUNTY
*MAUI COUNTY, INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, MOLOKAI, LANAI AND
KAHOOLAWE
*OAHU
*KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE IN
HONOLULU.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

At 500 am HST, 1500 UTC, the center of tropical storm Flossie was located near latitude 20.5 north, longitude 153.5 west. Flossie is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph, 26 km/h, and this motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph, 75 km/h, with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles, 165 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb, 29.53 inches.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the Big Island this morning, Maui county by late morning and Oahu this evening and Kauai county later tonight.
RAINFALL

Heavy rainfall is expected to begin this morning over Hawaii county and this afternoon over Maui county, with heavy rain spreading to Oahu tonight. Flossie is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches over the Big Island and Maui county, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible, mainly windward. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are possible over Oahu and Kauai, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible, mainly windward. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in the mountains.
SURF

Dangerously high surf is hammering east facing shores of the Big Island. Surf will spread to the rest of the islands today and continue into Tuesday. The big surf may cause coastal road closures, even before the storm arrives. Please see the latest hurricane local statement for information specific to your area.

NEXT ADVISORY
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

WTPA41 PHFO 291511
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062013
500 AM HST MON JUL 29 2013

THE CENTER OF FLOSSIE WAS HIDDEN BY HIGH CLOUDS MOST OF THE NIGHT
BEFORE VIRS NIGHTTIME VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED AN EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FARTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED. WE
RE-BESTED THE 0600 UTC POSITION BASED ON THE VISIBLE DATA.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES CONTINUED SHOW CURRENT INTENSITIES OF
3.0 BUT SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST A RAPID WEAKENING TREND WITH THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER PULLING AWAY FROM A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. IT IS LIKELY THAT CONTINUED NORTHWEST
SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN THIS WEAKENING TREND.

THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTH TO REFLECT THE RE-LOCATED CENTER.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHIFTED FOLLOWING THE TRACK CHANGE AND WAS
CONSISTENT WITH A NEW TRACK FARTHER TO THE NORTH. THE TRACK NOW
SHOWS FLOSSIE PASSING OVER MAUI TODAY...OVER OAHU TONIGHT...THEN
PASSING SOUTH OF KAUAI EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WE EXPECT FLOSSIE TO
WEAKEN STEADILY AS IT TRACKS WEST NORTHWEST AND DISSPATE WITHIN 96
HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 20.5N 153.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 20.9N 155.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 21.7N 159.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 22.5N 163.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 23.5N 166.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 24.5N 171.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

[Stormtrackerjoe]

I'll just throw this out there, could we get an MCV 100 mi E of Hilo from that cluster of convection that detached from the main center, and that would be the new center?

[WeatherGuesser]

Has anybody seen any mention of evacuation of coastal flood-prone areas yet?

[Yellow Evan]

Has anybody seen any mention of evacuation of coastal flood-prone areas yet?

No.

[WeatherGuesser]

Alaska Airlines says its Monday Hawaii-bound flights have been canceled through noon PT because of Tropical Storm Flossie.


http://www.usatoday.com/story/todayinth ... s/2595681/

[Yellow Evan]

Alaska Airlines says its Monday Hawaii-bound flights have been canceled through noon PT because of Tropical Storm Flossie.


http://www.usatoday.com/story/todayinth ... s/2595681/

I saw that. Nine shelters have also been opened and all schools and parks were closed.

[WeatherGuesser]

Red Cross comments: http://www.khon2.com/2013/07/28/hawaii- ... s-flossie/

Coast Guard Closes Port of Kahului as Flossie Approaches: http://mauinow.com/2013/07/28/coast-gua ... pproaches/

Hawaii County under state of emergency: http://www.staradvertiser.com/news/brea ... _home.html

Evacuation Shelters to open at 4PM local time: http://www.staradvertiser.com/news/brea ... nties.html

[tolakram]

Latest visible

[Yellow Evan]

Latest visible

http://imageshack.us/a/img844/2481/f35z.jpg

Center clearly exposed. Won't last much longer.

[HURAKAN]

Latest radar image

[Yellow Evan]

https://fbcdn-sphotos-b-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-prn1/559970_594655300556931_726045405_n.jpg

Latest radar image

Maui about to get some rain. Not much rain as a whole yet, though heavy rains are still a bit off, so it's too soon to judge how much rain Hawaii is going to receive. Interesting enough, the convection is moving west while the LLC is moving WNW.

[AFWeather]

Still looks like that convection will mainly impact the big island. The other islands are seeing enhanced trade showers due to the increased tropical moisture in the area. Don't know if they'll see much beyond that at this point, short of new convection firing around that LLC (unlikely).

[Yellow Evan]

I am starting to question whether it will stay a TC till Hawaii. LLC has been exposed for several hours, what deep convection remains is far from the LLC. I do think the CPHC will keep it on till it hits Maui in a few hours.

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA31 PHFO 291754
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062013
800 AM HST MON JUL 29 2013

...FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 154.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 260 MI...418 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...64 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
*HAWAII COUNTY
*MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI AND
KAHOOLAWE
*OAHU
*KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE IN
HONOLULU.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 154.0 WEST. FLOSSIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...64 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...145 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE BIG
ISLAND THIS MORNING...MAUI COUNTY BY LATE MORNING...OAHU THIS
EVENING AND KAUAI COUNTY LATER TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS MORNING OVER
HAWAII COUNTY AND THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAUI COUNTY...WITH HEAVY RAIN
SPREADING TO OAHU TONIGHT. FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
COUNTY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE...
MAINLY WINDWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER OAHU AND KAUAI...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE...MAINLY WINDWARD. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

SURF...DANGEROUSLY HIGH SURF IS HAMMERING EAST FACING SHORES OF THE
BIG ISLAND. SURF WILL SPREAD TO THE REST OF THE ISLANDS TODAY AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. THE BIG SURF MAY CAUSE COASTAL ROAD
CLOSURES...EVEN BEFORE THE STORM ARRIVES. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE LOCAL STATEMENT FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

[Kingarabian]

Well with that convection to the east of the LLC, it sure does look better than it did last night HST. I was worried it was going to go poof.

[Kingarabian]

[Yellow Evan]

Well with that convection to the east of the LLC, it sure does look better than it did last night HST. I was worried it was going to go poof.

Still not all that great, it's barley a TS.

[Kingarabian]

Any new ASCAT passes?

[supercane4867]

40kt winds

[Yellow Evan]

I think the next ACTCF update will keep it a TC.