EPAC: HENRIETTE - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND COULD BECOME LESS
CONDUCIVE AFTER THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[lester]

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[Yellow Evan]

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA...CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT IF HURRICANE GIL
WEAKENS OR THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS INCREASES. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 022346
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI AUG 2 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM GIL...LOCATED WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THEY
COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
PARTICULARLY IF TROPICAL STORM GIL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

[Yellow Evan]

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THEY COULD BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PARTICULARLY IF TROPICAL
STORM GIL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10
TO 15 MPH.

[Kingarabian]

Looking better. Let's see if it can maintain and increase showers...

[Extratropical94]

Up to 50/60

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS
TROPICAL STORM GIL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[supercane4867]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep902013_ep082013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201308031438
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 123.0W
ABOUT 1100 MI...1770 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE
123.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9
MPH...15 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN TRACKED FOR SEVERAL DAYS HAS
CONSOLIDATED NEAR A LOW-LEVEL CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL POSITION
IS UNCERTAIN...GIVEN THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE...THE
LOW CAN BE UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS WITH AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM WATERS BUT THE
SHEAR COULD INCREASE SOME IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND CONSEQUENTLY
ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270 DEGRES AT 8 KNOTS.
THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THIS PATTERN
WOULD SUGGEST A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF
SOLUTION...WHICH IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 13.0N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 13.0N 123.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 13.0N 125.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 13.0N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 13.0N 128.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 14.0N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 16.0N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 17.5N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[galaxy401]

So, those circles on the NHC website is the new symbol for a TD? Surprised to see this suddenly form.

[Kingarabian]

Tracking much closer to Hawaii.

[Yellow Evan]

Tracking much closer to Hawaii.

Should be long gone by then though.

[Kingarabian]

03/2330 UTC 12.8N 123.9W T2.0/2.0 08E

[Kingarabian]

This looks pretty good right now. I believe we should have Henriette soon.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 08, 2013080400, , BEST, 0, 128N, 1244W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 35, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, EIGHT, M,

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013

STRONG CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. LIGHT-TO-MODERATE
NORTHERLY SHEAR...PARTIALLY FROM OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM
GIL...APPEARS TO BE CAUSING THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN TO BE LOPSIDED
ON THE SOUTH SIDE. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN TO 30 AND 35
KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE CONSERVATIVELY SET TO 30 KT.

MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH
WOULD LIKELY INDUCE A MORE CONDUCIVE LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. PERHAPS REFLECTING THIS SHEAR FORECAST...THE BULK OF
THE MOST RELIABLE GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A
HURRICANE IN 48-72H WHILE THE WATERS REMAIN WARM. GIVEN THE
SOMEWHAT INEXPLICABLE STRUGGLES OF GIL IN THIS SAME AREA...I AM NOT
ABOUT TO BITE OFF ON THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A HURRICANE YET...BUT
WILL INCREASE THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE NEW NHC PREDICTION IS
ADJUSTED HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS STILL ABOUT 10 KT
LOWER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS BEYOND 48H...AND ON THE LOW END
OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM.

BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 260/9. A WESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS TO THE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ERODE
THE WESTERN PART OF THE RIDGE AFTER THE WEEKEND...CAUSING THE
SYSTEM TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN THIS TURN WILL OCCUR...WHICH CAUSES THE
TRACK GUIDANCE TO FAN OUT NOTICEABLY DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS.
THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEW
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 12.7N 124.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 12.5N 126.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 12.5N 127.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 12.6N 129.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 13.1N 130.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 14.5N 133.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 16.2N 137.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 17.5N 141.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Yellow Evan]

At first I was doubting whether it would become a TS, now I think it could become a cane.

[bahamaswx]

This thing is huge with some crazy deep convection.

[Kingarabian]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1004.2mb/ 45.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.1 3.4

[Yellow Evan]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1004.2mb/ 45.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.1 3.4

This is definitely being upped to 35 knts at this right IMO. I'm expecting a TS when I wake up.