ATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

[hurricanes1234]

Convection is organising around the invisible eye, a ring of 'red' runs completely around it!

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CrazyC83]

11/2345 UTC 18.4N 28.9W T4.5/4.5 HUMBERTO -- Atlantic

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like , given your statement, agree with that. After a "strange short lull", things are changing now. Thanks for these nice infos Ozonepete (as usual). I think that Cycloneye and the others carib friends, monitor closely all these twaves as IMO any feature could be a potential threat for any land mass area .... as we're in the peak of the season. Let's wait an see...

IDK about that yet, IMO this could have at least easily become a Cat.3 if there was less dry air and slightly less shear.

[TheStormExpert]

11/2345 UTC 18.4N 28.9W T4.5/4.5 HUMBERTO -- Atlantic

What strength would this translate to?

[ozonepete]

11/2345 UTC 18.4N 28.9W T4.5/4.5 HUMBERTO -- Atlantic

What strength would this translate to?

By itself 77 knots or 90 mph. Very close to cat 2. Cat 2 is 83 knots or 96 mph.

[hurricanes1234]

11/2345 UTC 18.4N 28.9W T4.5/4.5 HUMBERTO -- Atlantic

What strength would this translate to?

By itself 77 knots or 90 mph. Very close to cat 2. Cat is 83 knots or 95 mph.

Think this would become a Category 2? Also, what are the models showing with possible redevelopment in the long range?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ozonepete]

Haven't looked at long range this evening. But cat 2 is soooo close but dry air is really getting close to the core (oranges and reds). It's already flattening the west side of the core. (By flattening the west side I mean dry air is eroding the convection on the western side) Look:

[RL3AO]

After extrapolating the center location, I measured embedded in black by 0.7 degrees which is T5.0

[hurricanes1234]

Best Track not issued as yet.

[ozonepete]

After extrapolating the center location, I measured embedded in black by 0.7 degrees which is T5.0

Love that you learned this. I'm very impressed. One of these days I'm going to learn how. Thanks for posting!!

[cycloneye]

Best Track not issued as yet.

Stays at 75kts.

AL, 09, 2013091200, , BEST, 0, 185N, 289W, 75, 986, HU

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Best Track not issued as yet.

Stays at 75kts.

AL, 09, 2013091200, , BEST, 0, 185N, 289W, 75, 986, HU

A little low, in my opinion.

[hurricanes1234]

Best Track not issued as yet.

Stays at 75kts.

AL, 09, 2013091200, , BEST, 0, 185N, 289W, 75, 986, HU

A little low, in my opinion.

Exactly, this storm has managed to develop a complete ring of convection around the eye, and it looks even better than this afternoon. I would assume they leave it at 75 knots, but Humberto looks like at least 80 knots. Just my opinion.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

Oh, wait, the pressure dropped. My bad.

AL, 09, 2013091200, , BEST, 0, 185N, 289W, 75, 982, HU,

[CrazyC83]

It looks more like a T5.0 to me as well. I'd have had it at 85 kt through the late afternoon and evening.

[CrazyC83]

Oh, wait, the pressure dropped. My bad.

AL, 09, 2013091200, , BEST, 0, 185N, 289W, 75, 982, HU,

Probably reflective of the larger size of the storm. Larger storms tend to have lower pressures, and 982mb is slightly above the Dvorak normal (980mb) for 75 kt.

[hurricanes1234]

It looks more like a T5.0 to me as well. I'd have had it at 85 kt through the late afternoon and evening.

Yes, I strongly agree with this. Humberto has managed to develop a cloud-filled eye with a ring of deep convection completely around it. I would say 90 mph at the very least, but with the pressure drop, it now seems a tad more realistic.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Alyono]

looks like a 4.5 at most

[ozonepete]

Looks to me like it may be moving NNE in the last couple of hours, which I would think is a temporary jog. And that is actually good for avoiding the dry air. In the last few frames the core has been holding tight with nice convection and the dry air hasn't gotten in there.

[ozonepete]

looks like a 4.5 at most

?? Even conservative CIMSS ADT has it at 4.6.