EPAC: HENRIETTE - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 040849
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN SINCE
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR
IS KEEPING WHAT LIMITED CONVECTION THERE IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CENTER...AND A 0542 UTC AMSU OVERPASS REVEALED VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF BANDING FEATURES. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
45 KT FROM UW-CIMSS ADT...35 KT FROM TAFB...AND 30 KT FROM SAB.
GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES...THE
INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/08 KT BASED PRIMARILY ON
MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES. A WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
ON THIS SHORT-TERM TRACK SCENARIO...BUT THEN DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY
AFTER THAT DUE TO THE EXPECTED STRENGTH AND VERTICAL DEPTH OF THE
CYCLONE. THE ECMWF IS FORECASTING A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM THAT MOVES
MORE WESTWARD AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...WHEREAS THE
GFS AND HWRF ARE FORECASTING A STRONGER AND DEEPER STORM THAT MOVES
POLEWARD OUT OF THE ITCZ. GIVEN THE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL AND
OCEANIC CONDITIONS AFTER 18-24 HOURS THAT SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE
TO INTENSIFY POSSIBLY TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GFS...GFS-ENSEMBLE...AND HWRF
SOLUTIONS...AND LIES NEAR BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE
CONSENSUS MODEL TVCE.

THE MODERATE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING
THIS SYSTEM FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO LESS
THAN 5 KT BY 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES UNDER A RIDGE AXIS THAT
LIES ALONG 130W LONGITUDE. SSTS ARE 28C AND WARMER AND THE MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BE MOIST WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 70 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME MODEST
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS UNTIL THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER
SUB-26C SSTS BY 96 HOURS. THE BULK OF THE RELIABLE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS STILL FORECASTING THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A HURRICANE
BY 48 HOURS...WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN THAT THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A MOIST EQUATORIAL INFLOW PATTERN.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS
CLOSE TO BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS MODEL ICON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 12.8N 125.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 12.8N 126.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 12.8N 128.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 12.9N 129.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 13.6N 131.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 14.9N 134.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 16.1N 138.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 17.3N 142.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Extratropical94]

Wrong thread

[Kingarabian]

Sorry I fixed it.

Wow I love Stewart's disco's... Just so full of detail...

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track up to TS.

EP, 08, 2013080412, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1261W, 35, 1005, TS

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 126.5W
ABOUT 1290 MI...2075 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES



TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013

OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE
IS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS.
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ALL SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 35 KT FROM SAB...53 KT FROM UW/CIMSS ADT...TO
55 KT FROM TAFB. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT CENTER
LOCATION AND OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT THE LOWER END OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES. NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
HENRIETTE TO AT LEAST GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. HENRIETTE SHOULD BE TO CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
REACHING COOLER WATERS IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.

THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 8 KT AND THIS
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT
TIME...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. IN RESPONSE...HENRIETTE SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THE 36 HOUR
TIME PERIOD...BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THAT TIME. THE GFS IS
ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AS IT TAKES A STRONGER
AND MORE VERTICALLY DEEP CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD. THE REMAINDER OF
MODELS GENERALLY KEEP A SOMEWHAT WEAKER CYCLONE MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD. THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST IS BETWEEN
THESE SOLUTIONS AND IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 12.9N 126.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 12.9N 127.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 12.9N 129.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 13.3N 130.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 14.1N 131.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 15.7N 135.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 16.5N 139.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 17.2N 142.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Not exactly the best organized tropical storm. I'm sure it'll move past its blob stage eventually.

[Yellow Evan]

Not exactly the best organized tropical storm. I'm sure it'll move past its blob stage eventually.

It's clearly struggling a bit. Still think it could still become a hurricane though.

[Kingarabian]

Don't tell me there is a developing system to the east of the storm that is complicating things for it...

Take it easy Mr. EPAC!

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

18z best track put it up to 40 knots.

Probably low...SAB is at 45 knots, TAFB is at 55 knots, and UW-CIMSS ADT is at 53 knots.

[Kingarabian]

04/1800 UTC 12.4N 127.1W T3.0/3.0 HENRIETTE

[Yellow Evan]

18z best track put it up to 40 knots.

Probably low...SAB is at 45 knots, TAFB is at 55 knots, and UW-CIMSS ADT is at 53 knots.

Well, it does look a little like a random blob IMO.

[Yellow Evan]

Don't tell me there is a developing system to the east of the storm that is complicating things for it...

Take it easy Mr. EPAC!

It's not uncommon for there to be tons of moisture in the EPAC. Use to happen a bit during its glory days. We just have not seen it in many years.

[Kingarabian]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 999.3mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.5 4.0

[Kingarabian]

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013

RECENT MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT
THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE IS LOCATED A BIT SOUTH OF THE EARLIER
ESTIMATES. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHETHER THIS IS DUE
TO A REFORMATION OF THE CENTER OR IF THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. THE SMALL
TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW HAS A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT WRAPS
AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT THERE IS
STILL A LACK OF CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PARTS
OF THE STORM...DUE TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 KT...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT
UNCERTAINTY IN CENTER LOCATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO A
MORE CONSERVATIVE 40 KT. THE SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING. MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS
HENRIETTE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...AND SO DOES THE
UPDATED NHC FORECAST. HENRIETEE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING OVER
COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...AND WEAKENING IS INDICATED LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/7 KT.
HENRIETTE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS AS A RIDGE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. AFTER THAT
TIME...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE WHICH SHOULD CAUSE HENRIETTE
TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
LESSENED THIS CYCLE...WITH THE 1200 UTC GFS SHIFTING SOUTHWARD AND
CLOSER TO REMAINDER OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE
SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE INITIAL POSTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 12.2N 126.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 12.2N 127.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 12.5N 129.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 13.1N 131.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 13.9N 132.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 15.3N 136.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 16.0N 139.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 16.5N 143.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

NNNN

[Kingarabian]

Losing that blob status and gaining curvature; starting to show signs of becoming a young tropical cyclone.

[Yellow Evan]

Losing that blob status and gaining curvature; starting to show signs of becoming a young tropical cyclone.

i am starting to think they will raise it to 45 knots or 50 knots at 3z.

[cycloneye]

Up to 45kts.

EP, 08, 2013080500, , BEST, 0, 120N, 1273W, 45, 1002, TS

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Henriette is an absolute mess. The mid-level low seems dislocated from its low-level circulation, the convection is weak in general and very disorganized, and the center itself seems to be nearly exposed as a result of high northeasterly wind shear. It's a broad tropical cyclone as well, so I wouldn't expect quick intensification, even if conditions become more favorable as forecast. We will need to watch that disturbance east of Henriette as well...might complicate Henriette's intensity forecast.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013

HENRIETTE HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED RECENTLY...VISIBLE AND
SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGES INDICATE THAT BANDING FEATURES HAVE
BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE
CLOUD PATTERN DOES STILL SHOW SIGNS OF EASTERLY SHEAR...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 45 KT...WHICH IS ON THE
LOW END OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO LESSEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...AND HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED TO
BEGIN IN 3 TO 4 DAYS WHEN HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WATERS
COOLER THAN 26C AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THE LATEST NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT ON
THE LOW SIDE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

THE TROPICAL STORM HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/7
KT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON MONDAY
WHEN THE STORM APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...
INDUCED BY A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF CALIFORNIA. A
TURN BACK TO THE WEST IS PREDICTED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE BECOMES MORE INFLUENCED BY A LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 12.0N 127.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 12.2N 128.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 12.8N 130.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 13.5N 131.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 14.2N 133.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 15.5N 136.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 16.0N 140.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 16.5N 145.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[Yellow Evan]

Henriette is an absolute mess. The mid-level low seems dislocated from its low-level circulation, the convection is weak in general and very disorganized, and the center itself seems to be nearly exposed as a result of high northeasterly wind shear. It's a broad tropical cyclone as well, so I wouldn't expect quick intensification, even if conditions become more favorable as forecast. We will need to watch that disturbance east of Henriette as well...might complicate Henriette's intensity forecast.

It's getting there. It has 2-3 days to intensify and is a mid-level TS already.