Alyono wrote:wonder why NHC is going with the southern Gulf solution. Looking more like a more northerly track now
Well, in deference to Wxman's thoughts on 95L being unlikely to impact the Texas coast as a hurricane, I took another look at the maps and have to admit that in all likelyhood a Westbound system located near the Belize/Yucatan border...would appear likely to more or less continue slowly in that direction.
Although doubtful, a stationary 95L "could" strengthen and organize along the coast for perhaps 24 hours and if then moving 290 over a flatter terrain could strengthen further in the S. Gulf (but not quite "buried" in the BOC); Such might be in place late Thursday to be far north enough to start moving NW through the eroding western flank of the ridge, towards the S. Texas coast. But to be realistic, do I really think that even a developing storm that were buried in the BOC would respond to the weakened ridge? Probably not....just doesnt look like that deep of a 500mb trough that would cause such a dramatic shift in the steering flow. Would likely really take some unexpected reformation a bit further north in the near term. Other than the oft chance of this developing in a COL, just no reason at the moment to assume that any forward motion could be anything more than west or WNW.