ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

[stormlover2013]

WOWWWW EURO ends with making a towards la!!!! central to sw la

[JtSmarts]

I know that has a very very low chance of happening (HWRF is best for entertainment only) , but it would surely get the board hopping if that scene played out.

[Portastorm]

WOWWWW EURO ends with making a towards la!!!! central to sw la

Btw, thank you for updating your profile per my earlier request.

[tolakram]

The UKM run is updated as well, different solution but it ends up near the same place, but in 5 days.

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

[Stormcenter]

What happned to the Mexico landfall?

[gatorcane]

Latest spaghetti plots:

[tropicwatch]

The UKM run is updated as well, different solution but it ends up near the same place, but in 5 days.

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

Doesn't the EURO usually stay left of most of the other models?

[Wx_Warrior]

Per some ^^^ Wasnt too "left" with Ingrid.

[ROCK]

the EURO and CMC now look to be on the same page for now.....see that the 18Z BAMMS have come to their senses.... EURO gets this very near the coast of MX and it hangs out there for awhile...before heading north....

[ROCK]

Per some ^^^ Wasnt too "left" with Ingrid.

yeah the EURO did pretty good with Ingrid...no wild swings I can remember...

[gatorcane]

The Euro basically doesn't have the system connecting with the front and heading NE like the GFS has. These two reliable models are clearly disagreeing on where the invest ends up going once the invest reaches the BOC.

[ROCK]

it misses the front....EURO doesnt think it will be deep enough to pick it up...

[tolakram]

Per some ^^^ Wasnt too "left" with Ingrid.

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

You can visit the site I listed, select Ingrid for the storm to see the verification plots, then step back in days to see how the Euro did to actual. Most runs it was a little south of the actual landfall. Really no need to argue about it anymore. When speaking of a particular model it is fair to say it has tendencies, but that does not mean it always shows the same behavior in different conditions.

[tolakram]

The Atlantic E-Wall has updated.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html#picture

[stormlover2013]

I know its just one run of the euro, this is a tricky pattern!!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

The UKM run is updated as well, different solution but it ends up near the same place, but in 5 days.

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

Now this and the euro has me a little more interested and I'm sure will be on our local weather at 6 as well. Obviously things will change 100x's over IF this even develops but since some take it far east to Florida and at the other end some still say mexico the north gulf looks like a safe bet for now. Now if the cmc shows it I know it will never happen But as others said it all depends on how strong the front and trough are later this week. Just a gut feeling and from seeing how strong the gfs showed the last front being, which it wasn't BTW, thinking this will be the same and barely make it to the north gulf coast. And would expect westward shifts to begin in the next day or so.

[ronjon]

Yeah Euro might be a little slow on the pick up and thus gets leftover. A possibility no doubt. But if the system develops any intensity at all, I have to believe the trough will pick it up. Still am having a hard time thinking this system will get very strong - think upper level conditions will deteriorate with time.

[ROCK]

it's about time you got interested Mike...

[supercane4867]

12Z HWRF has Major Hurricane Jerry in the Gulf moving NE at day 5

*For Entertainment*

[gatorcane]

Here is the full loop of the HWRF:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2013091712-invest95l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation