WPAC: SOULIK- Post-Tropical

[RL3AO]

Yeah. Looks like a 115 kt (1-min) system now.

[mrbagyo]

Yeah. Looks like a 115 kt (1-min) system now.

yes, I agree with you... it closed the eyewall again.
raw T numbers already hit T#7

[CrazyC83]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.4
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUL 2013 Time : 160000 UTC
Lat : 20:42:15 N Lon : 137:14:39 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 937.5mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.8 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 32 km

Center Temp : +16.6C Cloud Region Temp : -73.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 125km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 25.8 degrees

[Hurricane_Luis]

The Western Pacific Baisin is so much more Interesting to watch than the others. The Atlantic is being pathetic at the moment with Chantal.

And here it is, Catagory 2 Typhoon Soulik.

[lester]

The Western Pacific Baisin is so much more Interesting to watch than the others. The Atlantic is being pathetic at the moment with Chantal.

And here it is, Catagory 2 Typhoon Soulik.

Looks a lot better than a Category 2 Typhoon to me, wow.

[jaguarjace]

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

[Hurricane_Luis]

The Western Pacific Baisin is so much more Interesting to watch than the others. The Atlantic is being pathetic at the moment with Chantal.

And here it is, Catagory 2 Typhoon Soulik.

http://img194.imageshack.us/img194/3046/v887.png

Looks a lot better than a Category 2 Typhoon to me, wow.

Yes, absolutely, The JMA has upgraded this to what looks like Category 4 Storm now. (Correct me if im wrong!)

[Hurricane_Luis]

Get ready for some nice satellite photos of this storm.

Typhoon Soulik Warning #9



http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp0713web.txt <<<<TC Text here

[jaguarjace]

Morning view.

[RL3AO]

The eye continues to warm

[Typhoon Hunter]

Models are trending south a bit with Taiwan under the gun. Indeed ECMWF 12z goes for a monumental hit on Taiwan, bottoming out at 918hPa before landfall on the north east.

[dexterlabio]

Models are trending south a bit with Taiwan under the gun. Indeed ECMWF 12z goes for a monumental hit on Taiwan, bottoming out at 918hPa before landfall on the north east.

Do you have plans on chasing the typhoon? Maybe in Taipei or Ishigaki?

[Yellow Evan]

Soulik is just beautiful.

[euro6208]

on the verge of becoming our 1st Super Typhoon!

TYPHOON 07W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 21.1N 135.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 135.8E


REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 135.1E.
TYPHOON 07W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 546 NM SOUTHEASTWARD
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 38
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.//
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 07W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 546 NM
SOUTHEASTWARD OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED, WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE, ON A 092332Z PGTW SATELLITE EYE FIX AND A 092257Z
SSMIS PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH
DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATES OF 6.5 FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES AS
WELL AS RECENT AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLASSIC STRUCTURE OF A VERY INTENSE
TYPHOON, COMPLETE WITH A DISTINCT 25NM DIAMETER EYE. TY 07W
CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER AND
EXCELLENT OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS TO THE NORTHWEST
AND EAST HAVE ENABLED TY 07W TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO NEAR SUPER-
TYPHOON INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING.
B. TY 07W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72, UNDER THE
CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE.
TRACK FORECAST SOLUTIONS FROM THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED TO NARROW THROUGH TAU 72, AND SHOW THE SYSTEM PASSING NEAR
TO OR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAIWAN BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72.
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED PASSAGE OVER WARM
WATER SHOULD ALLOW TY 07W TO REACH SUPER-TYPHOON INTENSITY DURING
UPCOMING 12 HOUR PERIOD AND MAINTAIN STRONG TYPHOON OR MINIMAL SUPER-
TYPHOON INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 48. PASSAGE OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER
WATER, LESS FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND LAND INTERACTION WILL
INDUCE MODERATE WEAKENING BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TY 07W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST OF CHINA AS IT TURNS SLIGHTLY POLEWARD
AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE. BASED ON
CURRENT ANALYSIS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT,
THERE IS NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGHOUT TAU
72. FORECAST TRACK CONFIDENCE DECREASES AFTER TAU 72, WHEN THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL INLAND AND DISSIPATE.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

Morning view.

awesome!!!
but it looks like an Eye Wall Replacement Cycle is underway

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Eye looks perfect. I would say high-end Category 4 or low-end Category 5. (Around 240-270 km/h).



JMA's Intensity:
<Analyses at 10/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N21°35'(21.6°)
E134°10'(134.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL190km(100NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL440km(240NM)

Peak Intensity:
<Forecast for 11/09 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N22°05'(22.1°)
E128°55'(128.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 915hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)

And about Chantal:
I even don't think Chantal is a storm...

[RobWESTPACWX]

Shantal Vs Soulik. hmmm

[StormingB81]

I see that Okinawa is in TCCOR: Storm Watch which means The typhoon is moving away but the base is still feeling some effects. Hazardous conditions may exist due to storm damage. In some cases the storm could return to Okinawa , so stay alert.

Ussually this means head to work within 2 hours so dont know what they are going to do I will have to contact some friends over there this is interesting in the 3 years there I have never seen this. I Have seen TCCOR 3 just in case but not Storm Watch.

[StormingB81]

Following is an explanation posted by Kadena Air Base’s Facebook page:

"Team Kadena: The 18th Wing Commander declared Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness (TCCOR) Storm Watch for Okinawa, Japan effective 1743L (5:43 p.m. local) on 09JUL2013. This TCCOR will stay in effect unless the 18th OSS/OSW forecasts and recommends a change in condition.

[northjaxpro]

Soulik is just beautiful.

It certainly is. WOW! Just a classical, textbook looking tropical cyclone!