CPAC: FLOSSIE - Post-Tropical

[TheAustinMan]

After looking at the satellite loops of Tropical Storm Flossie it seems like something blew up southwest of Flossie and now has an appearance somewhat akin to a tropical cyclone. It's most likely a temporary feature, but it is quite peculiar nonetheless.


Image courtesy CIMSS

[Kingarabian]

Lost a good amount of deep convection in the past few hours.

[Kingarabian]

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062013
200 PM PDT THU JUL 25 2013

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER AND THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH FLOSSIE
APPEAR TO BE BETTER DEFINED...THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. NONETHELESS...1736 UTC ASCAT DATA INDICATE
THAT THE CYCLONE HAS MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 40 KT...AND THAT WILL BE
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. FLOSSIE IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME FOR MUCH
MORE STRENGTHENING SINCE THE CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO REACH COOLER
WATERS IN ABOUT A DAY. THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WINDS IS
SHOWN IN THE FORECAST FOLLOWING THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. BY
DAY 5...IF NOT SOONER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE DEGENERATED INTO A
REMNANT LOW OR A TROUGH.

MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FLOSSIE HAS BEEN MOVING
WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS. IT APPEARS THAT BECAUSE
FLOSSIE IS A RELATIVELY SHALLOW CYCLONE...IT IS BEING STEERED
WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THERE IS A STRONG AND PERSISTENT
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL KEEP FLOSSIE ON A GENERAL
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE SLIGHT SHIFT OBSERVED IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 15.3N 127.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 15.5N 130.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 16.0N 133.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 16.5N 136.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 17.0N 140.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 18.5N 145.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 18.5N 150.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 18.5N 155.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG

[Yellow Evan]

I agree that I think Flossie is done intensifying. Still a neat storm though.

[Hurricane_Luis]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep982013_ep062013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307250040
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

Could anyone tell me what all of this means?

[RL3AO]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep982013_ep062013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307250040
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

Could anyone tell me what all of this means?

The only part that matters is the "invest_RENUMBER_ep982013_ep062013.ren" telling us that it was being upgraded "renumber"ed from invest 98E to tropical cyclone 06E.

[Hurricane_Luis]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep982013_ep062013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307250040
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

Could anyone tell me what all of this means?

The only part that matters is the "invest_RENUMBER_ep982013_ep062013.ren" telling us that it was being upgraded "renumber"ed from invest 98E to tropical cyclone 06E.

Thanks, RL3AO.

[Kingarabian]

Code: Select all

Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
 2.7     3.1     3.4


Deep convection beginning to build near the center.

[Yellow Evan]

A bad pass, but



No closed LLC.

[Kingarabian]

Code: Select all

 CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE
 Thursday 25jul13 Time: 2322 UTC
 Latitude: 15.69 Longitude: -128.38
 Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 5 [1<--->30]
 -----------------------------------------------------------------
 | Estimated MSLP:                        997 hPa
 | Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind:     46 kts
 | Estimate Confidence:                  Good ( +/- 5mb +/- 7 kts )
 -----------------------------------------------------------------
 Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 0.43
 Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 0.81
 RMW:   56 km
 RMW Source is:  TPC
 Environmental Pressure:  1008 (TPC)
 Satellite: NOAA-18
 ATCF data for Month: 07 Day: 25 Time (UTC): 1800

[Yellow Evan]

After looking at the satellite loops of Tropical Storm Flossie it seems like something blew up southwest of Flossie and now has an appearance somewhat akin to a tropical cyclone. It's most likely a temporary feature, but it is quite peculiar nonetheless.


Image courtesy CIMSS

Well, Flossie is a temporary feature as well. GFS show Flossie having that thingy for dinner in a few days,

[Yellow Evan]

The National Hurricane Center in Miami Florida is issuing advisories on tropical storm Flossie, located 1840 miles east-southeast of Hilo Hawaii, under AWIPS header TCMEP1 and WMO header WTPZ21. Flossie is expected to cross 140°W into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center area of responsibility on Saturday.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062013
800 PM PDT THU JUL 25 2013

FLOSSIE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION IS ORGANIZED IN CURVED BANDS OVER THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION AND IN A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST. THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 00 UTC WERE UNCHANGED FROM
EARLIER...AND A BLEND OF THE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
UW-CIMSS ADT STILL SUPPORTS AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 40 KT. THE
TROPICAL STORM COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS AS IT REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER AND IN FAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. AFTER THAT TIME...HOWEVER...A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED WHILE FLOSSIE MOVES OVER WATERS THAT
ARE COOLER THAN 26C AND INTO A LESS FAVORABLE AIRMASS. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS MORE OR LESS
IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN ON A DUE WEST PATH TODAY...AND THE LATEST
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/15. A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION AT
ABOUT THE SAME SPEED IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE 5-DAY PERIOD AS
FLOSSIE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 15.1N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 15.4N 131.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 16.0N 134.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 16.5N 138.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 17.1N 141.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 18.0N 147.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 18.5N 153.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 31/0000Z 19.0N 159.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[Yellow Evan]

Wow, they are showing Flossie peaking peaking at 45 at this package compared to a 40 peak at last package. Interesting.

[LaBreeze]

Could be some interesting swells for the Big Island.

[Yellow Evan]

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida is issuing advisories on tropical storm Flossie, located about 1725 miles east southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. These bulletins are being issued under AWIPS header tcpep1, and WMO header wtpz31 KNHC. Based on the latest forecast, Flossie is expected to cross longitude 140°W into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center area of responsibility on Saturday.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Saturday evening.

[Extratropical94]

45 knots at 06z

EP, 06, 2013072606, , BEST, 0, 152N, 1298W, 45, 1000, TS

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062013
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 26 2013

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FLOSSIE HAS CONSOLIDATED SINCE THE
LAST ADVISORY. THE MOST PROMINENT AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED
NEAR AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS AT 0600 UTC HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB
AND SAB...AND SATCON ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE ABOUT THE SAME. A
RECENT ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 40 TO 45 KT
RANGE. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS NUDGED
UPWARD TO 45 KT. FLOSSIE HAS ABOUT ANOTHER DAY OVER RELATIVELY WARM
WATER...SO SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT
TERM. AFTER THAT TIME...HOWEVER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED DUE TO COOLER WATER...DRIER AIR...AND SOME INCREASE IN
WESTERLY SHEAR. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FLOSSIE IS ON A WESTWARD COURSE WITH THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE BEING 275/16. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE FLOSSIE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST BY THE
TIME FLOSSIE NEARS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE
WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE INFLUENCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD THIS CYCLE...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. THE LATEST NHC TRACK
FORECAST LIES ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 15.4N 130.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 15.8N 133.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 16.5N 136.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 17.2N 139.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 17.9N 143.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 18.6N 149.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 19.0N 154.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 31/0600Z 19.5N 159.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[ninel conde]

impressive that it may make it all the way to hawaii